Snowstorms

3 of them were Nino's. As history can tell you, Nino December's don't tend to do well after a snowy and cold November. Overall, most Nino winters are usually rockin' by Jan-Feb.

The entire 12z Euro is zzzzz.

Same. And not happening, lol. Not a single storm on the models from now until Christmas. Unless the last 5 days of the month are rockin', this is going to turn out to be another crappy December. Gotta hope for a turnaround come January.

Euro nailed this tbh. The NAM should just be discontinued. It's not as consistent as it used to be. Onto the next.

I reckon, split flows are more common in Nino's. Then again, shit Decembers have been a common thing in recent years. What matters is Jan-Mar.

The storm early next week is looking like a nuisance for some of us and there's legit nothing else between now and Christmas either. I have a feeling this thread will become quite active in the coming days, lol.

Euro coming in further SE than the NAM. Safe to say this storm is pretty much a write-off for most of us given recent trends. But I'll give it till tonight's 00z runs.

The switchover happened a little quicker than I anticipated. Got around 0.5" (1.3cm) so far and its coming down pretty nicely right now. 29cm isn't bad. YYZ is sitting at 38cm. We seem to be on the higher end than most of Ontario, even compared to Ottawa. It's been a very quiet December. Wow, that's nice! I'm assuming for work? Vancouver is one of my fav places in Canada. El Nino's and BC snow don't mix well, but I hope you get atleast one storm this winter. Nice to have you back!

I don't remember it being this bad a few years ago. Perhaps it might be somehow correlated with the North Pacific Pattern and the big "warm blob".

To expand on what you guys had said, I don't know if EC has incorporated proper sampling data on the CMC or RGEM that far up north. If not, I'd expect alot of back and forth with the models till atleast tomorrow night. I know EC has limited data coverage away from major cities.

HRDPS is still quite bullish on snow amounts for the GTA, lol. I don't think any of us will get anymore than an inch. Hows Oakville on the season?

Euro south, almost similar to GFS. Storm cancel..

I seen that, but I have my doubts. Both HRDPS and Nam keep sfc temps around the freezing mark. I think those around King Road and north have the best chance for accumulating snowfall (>2"). I'm going with Trace to max 1" near the lake.

Deserves a medal for being so consistent and accurate.

Now unless something changes, this storm appears to be our "best" chance for snow through atleast Christmas. The ridge axis following this storm isn't ideal for a winter storm, especially for those in Chicago and further ENE.

I agree. Per 500mb vort maps it does appear to dig a bit deeper than previous runs. 00Z CMC speeds up the northern stream, but you can see the s/w isn't nearly as strong either.

00Z CMC just holds back the entire s/w and consequently no storm. Almost looks like the 00Z Icon.

00Z GFS looking similar to 12z CMC.

The Euro drops the PV right over Lake Superior . On a side note, pre decent ridging near Western Greenland, indicative of a west based -NAO. This helps push the ridge towards the Plains/Prairies. It's not the best look for a winter storm for our region though.

Can't disagree with this. One thing I want to mention is the UKIE. I been evaluating its performance and its picked up on some key things throughout season. The storm this weekend for example, the UKIE was the first to pick up the storm riding up the Apps whereas the other model suite had it up the coast. Now both the CMC and Euro have a storm going up the Apps whereas the GFS still remains more towards the coast. GFS has been atrocious in some cases, but it does have some support from UKIE and CMC right now.

I'm sorry I actually just based it on what I saw here; http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest I don't have access to the premium models. Perhaps somebody else does ?

00Z Ukie looks pretty sweet.

Or like the 00z Icon!

That intense Pacific jet stream is gonna play alot of "games" on the models. So I wouldn't be sold out on anything, yet. There's a good chance this storm could end up being a total dud. Likewise, it could also be noteworthy.

I was near Amherst and Williamsville a few days ago. I was surprised there wasn't any snow on the ground. Is this the first major LES for Buffalo?