Snowstorms

How strong is the correlation between ENSO and the NAO/AO? Seems like weak ENSO events (Niña or Niño) are more volatile and could go either way. Perhaps the lack of Atlantic blocking in recent years could be attributed to sea ice loss in the summer and heat release.

The NAM 3km is interesting. It starts off as rain but quickly transitions over to wet snow near the end of the run. Temps at 850mb begin cooling down pretty quick. Reminds me of the late Feb '13 storm where we got 8" of cement lol. Edit: Kuchera maps have 1-2" by 60 hrs.

Yeah I agree. It's not the best set-up for anything big or widespread. I wouldn't discount a slushy ~2" for now.

The mesoscale models, once in range, will be able to pick up changes in surface and 850mb temperatures better. How fast the upper level low closes off will determine how it interacts with the developing coastal. A 50 mile shift either way could mean a big difference for the GTA.

Both! The initial low ended up further west and stronger compared to yesterdays 12z runs. Consequently, more warmer air creeps into the GTA. That slight shift means we end up too far west for any decent precip from the coastal low once the energy does transfer. Oshawa and Kingston fare much better due to stronger thermal cooling. Tonight's 00z runs will be key if this trend continues or we end up somewhere in the middle.

Alek's calls this winter have been $$.

Toronto called the army in 1999 after ~47" fell in less than 2 weeks lol.

I agree, without the AO/NAO or EPO block, the PNA itself is helpless. It's true a positive PNA can help us avoid a full out torch but without any support from other indices, were stuck in this pattern. Most of Canada is above normal now as the cold air retreats back to Alaska and the Arctic.

A cold Alaskan winter was bound to happen again after the 2011-12 debacle.

12z CMC goes from rain to wet snow for the GTA. 3-5" of wet snow to be precise. As the initial low wraps around just south of us, the warmer air creeps its way into the GTA. Once the coastal begins developing, we'll see how fast the thermals cool thereafter. Edit: Not overly optimistic right now. It's a pretty complex set-up and timing is everything.

This ain't the winter for snow cover.

Euro ensembles looked pretty good for our area. A lot of members had >6" for us. Let's see tonight's runs. No expectations right now. This could go either way.

Not happening. Many places across the GTA saw ~20" with that storm. The Dec 92 storm was a full blown Nor'easter and was much stronger. As it stands right now, 2-4" seems reasonable.

Euro has an 8" bullseye over Toronto. This is a complex storm with a lot of moving parts. Next few days will be interesting.

I'd assume its correlated with the MJO moving through phases 4-5-6? We'll see if that changes come mid-Feb, but for now we won't be seeing cold outbreaks anytime soon. The AO/NAO are + too.

For us locally it was one of the best winters of the decade. Most parts of the GTA saw between 54-60" including a ~13" storm. Winters like 08-09, 10-11, 13-14 and 17-18 to some extent are what I consider real winters in our region. They all featured wall-to-wall cold and snowfall and funny enough they were all La Nina's expect 13-14. But I think many of us expect each winter to be like the 40's, 60's or 70's. We went on a crazy run those years with extreme cold and snowfall practically every winter. The global climate was much different back then than it is today and that certainly has an impact on us as well.

I got no complaints about snow. The lack of cold has been kind of disappointing though. It'd be nice if we can get above 100cm (~40") again. The last time we had three consecutive winters above 100cm at YYZ was back in 2005. We came really close in 2015. That speaks volumes about how shit winters have been lately. Onto the next storm now!

Final total at YYZ was 6.8". Not a bad storm.

What was the final snow/ice total in Chicago?

YYZ up to ~5.2" as of 4pm. Hearing reports of big flakes coming down near Kitchener as temps continue to rise. ~7" is not out of the question if the bands near Milton/Guelph hold up.

Looks like the Premier of NL has requested assistance from the Canadian Armed Forces. Stay safe!

Just went to the store and shovelled rn. Measured 4.6" (11.7cm) as of 5 mins ago. Coming down nicely. Should hit 6". Edit: YYZ at 4" as of 3pm.

Yeah, lake effect hasn't been great this year. Even places like Buffalo aren't doing too good in that department. The best bet for winds straight out of the North is after a storm cuts through the Upper Lakes and cold Arctic air flows in from the Upper Midwest and Hudson Bay. We'll see if that changes in February as the lakes are open for business. Hopefully you get lucky with a nice streamer.

Yeah I just measured ~3.0". YYZ back to SN now. Some decent returns near Kitchener. We'll see if they hold up as they move further north.