Snowstorms

This is probably the sunniest Christmas week I can remember, lol.

Avg price of houses in Toronto is around $1,000,000. Guess we ain't the only ones. Sucks nowadays.

Euro is zzzz through the 27th.

The last time we saw a consistently cold and snowy winter from late Nov till March was 2013-14. And can you believe that winter was more than 5 years ago? Other winters since then: 2014-15: Nov, Jan-March 2015-16: Don't get me started 2016-17: Mostly Dec, the rest was just torch city 2017-18: All around decent minus mid Jan and second half of Feb 2018-19: Nov, Jan-early March Prior to 13-14, the only other consistent winters in recent times were 10-11 and 08-09. Ironically all 3 of them were cold neutrals or Nina's.

Yeah Worcester has 25.3" this month. Seems like elite territory. It would be for most of us in the Lakes region.

I was just scrolling through the New England forum and saw that this December is one of their top snowiest, not the snowiest ever. Some places are around 25-30+" already, lol. As Hoosier said, Nino Decembers are hit or miss unlike Nina's.

While some of us are dealing with a snowless and uneventful December, parts of the NE and New England are having one of their snowiest Decembers, lol. Quite the contrast.

I think none of us at this point would mind a repeat of the Jan 99 storm. This month would become a distant memory if it happened.

The total accumulated precip map looks the same too. Legit not even a clipper or a fantasy 360 hr storm.

That Pacific pattern (jet streak below) gotta change and until it doesn't, we're going to be stuck in this regime. On the bright side, the GEFS is trying to build a ridge around Alaska near the end of December which should hopefully allow for a -EPO to develop. Anything to get out of this storm-less pattern.

Euro still remains storm free past Christmas.

12 years ago today, I remember the infamous winter storm that dropped 8-12+" from SEMI to the GTA. If only we could get a repeat, lol.

The entire 12z Euro is zzzzz.

I reckon, split flows are more common in Nino's. Then again, shit Decembers have been a common thing in recent years. What matters is Jan-Mar.

The storm early next week is looking like a nuisance for some of us and there's legit nothing else between now and Christmas either. I have a feeling this thread will become quite active in the coming days, lol.

The Euro drops the PV right over Lake Superior . On a side note, pre decent ridging near Western Greenland, indicative of a west based -NAO. This helps push the ridge towards the Plains/Prairies. It's not the best look for a winter storm for our region though.

Or like the 00z Icon!

That intense Pacific jet stream is gonna play alot of "games" on the models. So I wouldn't be sold out on anything, yet. There's a good chance this storm could end up being a total dud. Likewise, it could also be noteworthy.

The 0z Euro looked pretty interesting. A weak ridge across the PNW (neutral PNA), nice little block across the north with the PV nearby in Hudson Bay, and a weak ridge out ahead in the SE. It wouldn't be a large storm IMO, but a potent one for some if it were to occur.

If the 16-17th storm were to occur, it would most likely be an overrunning event. The departing low this weekend would likely create a "block" around Newfoundland and without a decent ridge out ahead of the storm, there's little room for amplification.

Not surprising since we've seen a lot of "snowless" Decembers over the past 20 years. I'm sure years like 2018, 2015, 2011 and 2006 come to mind. However, when you consider some of the more snowier Decembers, a majority of them were La Nina's (2000, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2016 and 2017).

I agree, no consistency. Euro has a coaster. I feel like models tend to underplay CAD in these type of events, especially this far out. We got a pretty decent pool of cold air near Hudson Bay and a departing PV. Let's see.

Look's like a whole lot of rain.

+ENSO and +IOD forcing playing a role in that. As well, models are hinting at the MJO trekking its way into phases 2-3 near mid-December which translates to a warmer pattern for us. Going to have to see if the upcoming -NAO/AO can hold on a bit longer. In recent years, Atlantic blocking has been abysmal so it wouldn't surprise me if it breaks down quickly. Regardless, the cooler anomalies in the first week of December won't be anything insane. Without proper blocking, it'll most likely be transient cold.

I agree. 0z ECMWF had an interesting set-up.