Snowstorms

This pattern has been very prevalent in the last few years. A lot of winters pre 1980 and even some 80's winters featured more consistent cold and snowy weather in DJFM. However, in recent times it feels like it's being crunched down into just a few weeks of intense wintry weather. Take for example, 2017-18. It was generally cold and snowy from December till early January and again in the first 2 weeks in February. Outside of those couple weeks it was mild to exceptionally warm for most of us. Spring/Summer 2019 featured strong blocking over the Arctic which nearly decimated the sea ice especially around the Sea of Chukotsk. However, as been the theme in recent years, Arctic blocking seems to be nonexistent in the winter. Could that be related to the heat being released from the Arctic during the fall after the sea ice loss in the summer?

Pretty big changes on the 18z NAM vs 12z NAM. Story of this winter. Happy New Years everyone! Let's hope this decade is a better one.

Sucks to see another cutter on the 3rd.

Sounds like a La Nina pattern.

The 240 hr snow map on the 12z Euro is a joke. Three storms and all of them are rain lol.

Would be a big score for the GFS if this ends up being the final outcome.

2 years ago we had that Christmas eve snowstorm. It wasn't a big storm, but it still dropped a couple inches for some of us.

Nothing new to see here. That map looks like almost every December since 2010.

The lack of snow has gotten to Hoosier's head, that he's starting to believe the GFS is right.

This is probably the sunniest Christmas week I can remember, lol.

Euro is zzzz through the 27th.

I think none of us at this point would mind a repeat of the Jan 99 storm. This month would become a distant memory if it happened.

That Pacific pattern (jet streak below) gotta change and until it doesn't, we're going to be stuck in this regime. On the bright side, the GEFS is trying to build a ridge around Alaska near the end of December which should hopefully allow for a -EPO to develop. Anything to get out of this storm-less pattern.

Euro still remains storm free past Christmas.

12 years ago today, I remember the infamous winter storm that dropped 8-12+" from SEMI to the GTA. If only we could get a repeat, lol.

The entire 12z Euro is zzzzz.

The Euro drops the PV right over Lake Superior . On a side note, pre decent ridging near Western Greenland, indicative of a west based -NAO. This helps push the ridge towards the Plains/Prairies. It's not the best look for a winter storm for our region though.

Or like the 00z Icon!

That intense Pacific jet stream is gonna play alot of "games" on the models. So I wouldn't be sold out on anything, yet. There's a good chance this storm could end up being a total dud. Likewise, it could also be noteworthy.

The 0z Euro looked pretty interesting. A weak ridge across the PNW (neutral PNA), nice little block across the north with the PV nearby in Hudson Bay, and a weak ridge out ahead in the SE. It wouldn't be a large storm IMO, but a potent one for some if it were to occur.

If the 16-17th storm were to occur, it would most likely be an overrunning event. The departing low this weekend would likely create a "block" around Newfoundland and without a decent ridge out ahead of the storm, there's little room for amplification.

I agree, no consistency. Euro has a coaster. I feel like models tend to underplay CAD in these type of events, especially this far out. We got a pretty decent pool of cold air near Hudson Bay and a departing PV. Let's see.

Look's like a whole lot of rain.

+ENSO and +IOD forcing playing a role in that. As well, models are hinting at the MJO trekking its way into phases 2-3 near mid-December which translates to a warmer pattern for us. Going to have to see if the upcoming -NAO/AO can hold on a bit longer. In recent years, Atlantic blocking has been abysmal so it wouldn't surprise me if it breaks down quickly. Regardless, the cooler anomalies in the first week of December won't be anything insane. Without proper blocking, it'll most likely be transient cold.

I agree. 0z ECMWF had an interesting set-up.