Snowstorms

I was gonna go near Niagara today for a client meeting. But then I decided to reschedule seeing that haha!

The 0z Euro looked pretty interesting. A weak ridge across the PNW (neutral PNA), nice little block across the north with the PV nearby in Hudson Bay, and a weak ridge out ahead in the SE. It wouldn't be a large storm IMO, but a potent one for some if it were to occur.

If the 16-17th storm were to occur, it would most likely be an overrunning event. The departing low this weekend would likely create a "block" around Newfoundland and without a decent ridge out ahead of the storm, there's little room for amplification.

Not surprising since we've seen a lot of "snowless" Decembers over the past 20 years. I'm sure years like 2018, 2015, 2011 and 2006 come to mind. However, when you consider some of the more snowier Decembers, a majority of them were La Nina's (2000, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2008, 2016 and 2017).

I agree, no consistency. Euro has a coaster. I feel like models tend to underplay CAD in these type of events, especially this far out. We got a pretty decent pool of cold air near Hudson Bay and a departing PV. Let's see.

Look's like a whole lot of rain.

Measured 2.5" this morning with the clipper snow. Little icing on the cake.

Looking good for 2-4" across much of the GTA into Hamilton tomorrow as a clipper passes on thru. Going to be a messy morning commute. Potential is there for lake enhancement with 4-5" in some localized areas.

Couple models showing 1-3" across the GTA on Friday with a weak clipper passing by. Nothing too serious, just some light snow lol.

I find it interesting how YYZ's top snowiest Novembers aren't the same or atleast similar to Detroit's. YYZ's top 3 snowiest Novembers are 1940 (24.0"), 1950 (19.7") and 2003 (10.7").

I agree, great start to the season! YYZ now up to 31.6cm (12.4"). I am doing great, hope you are as well! Hoping for another exciting season.

November 2019 stats at YYZ. Avgs in bracket. High: 40.1F (45.5F) Low: 26.9F (31.4F) Mean: 33.6F (38.3F) - Tied for 3rd coldest on record Total snow: 7.5" (2.9")

About ~3.2" fell last night at YYZ (still snowing). This doesn't include the 1.2" that fell yesterday. Not a total bust, but the PL yesterday certainly put a dent on what could have been a 4-6" snowstorm (prior to last night's snowfall).

A whole lot of zzz's for the first week of December.

Relatively the same here at YYZ. However, I give a bit of a range and therefore consider "near normal" as a metric too. Trends and the overall pattern seems to favour a warm December. Although, I don't think it will be a blowtorch like 2011-12 or 2015. As it stands a mix between 2014 and 2018 seems likely. Both of which were +ENSO years. Colder December's are more common in La Nina's.

Quite the model battle going on right now for tomorrow's storm. Practically all 12z runs this afternoon have the GTA getting 4-8" tomorrow. Euro going all out with 8-12" . Latest HRRR has more SLT/PL than snow and keeps the GTA to within 2-4". I'm still skeptical as to how much snow falls tomorrow. How quickly we transition over to snow will depend how much the GTA will get. Niagara/Buffalo area will likely get a mix between FZRA and PL.

Not surprising. This entire decade for the most part has had warm December's with the exception of 2010, 2013, and 2017. This year is no different! There's a good chance we see a north pacific jet extension by the 2nd of week of December which will likely flood the nation with warm Pacific air. Now whether that continues till Christmas or beyond, remains to be seen.

Wow! That's alot of precipitation. 2008 is YYZ's wettest year as well, but we only got 41.3" that year. Quite the contrast given the relatively short distance between Chicago and Toronto. It's also crazy how 4 out of the top 5 have occurred in the last 11 years.

Looking like a wintry mess with a mixed bag of precipitation across Southern Ontario into Western New York this weekend. From London up until Hamilton and eastward towards Buffalo/Niagara, there could be a decent amount of ice accretion, with upwards of 0.30-0.40". Freezing rain seems more likely given the layer of warmth at 700 and 850mb. The GTA is far more tricker. It seems to be riding along the thin layer of warmth at 700mb with subfreezing surface temperatures. This would likely imply a sleet changing to snow type of event. Now how quickly that transition happens and whether any deformation band sets up will depend how much snow falls. As of now I'm leaning towards 2-3", but this is a tricky forecast. P.S. Happy Thanksgiving to my fellow Americans!

+ENSO and +IOD forcing playing a role in that. As well, models are hinting at the MJO trekking its way into phases 2-3 near mid-December which translates to a warmer pattern for us. Going to have to see if the upcoming -NAO/AO can hold on a bit longer. In recent years, Atlantic blocking has been abysmal so it wouldn't surprise me if it breaks down quickly. Regardless, the cooler anomalies in the first week of December won't be anything insane. Without proper blocking, it'll most likely be transient cold.

It was 6.9F this morning at YYZ making it the third coldest November low on record. Surrounding suburbs in the GTA were below 5F.

With the amount of controversy and criticism EC receives for YYZ's snow measuring techniques, this isn't surprising. I'd assume it has something to do with a lack of funding. But even then, Windsor is a major city in Ontario and this is unacceptable.

YYZ recorded 5.3" beating the previous record of 1.1" set back in 1983, haha. A general 5-7" fell across the GTA. I personally recorded 6.0". With a low of ~16.3F this morning, YYZ beat the previous record of 17.9F set back in 1937. We should beat tomorrows record of 14.7F set back in 1986 as well.

2.0" at YYZ as of 3pm. It will continue snowing till midnight.

Wouldn't that be like a top 5 snowstorm for Detroit in November if that did happen?