Snowstorms

Nice -EPO block with the PV parked up near Hudson Bay on the GFS. Whether that holds true, it remains to be seen. I'm still not sold out on the idea of any sustained cold for our region thru mid-Feb.

The GFS also develops a -EPO around this timeframe, hence the strong gradient storm. The PV is also parked up near Hudson Bay. I'll take that.

I agree completely. My favorite winter period is from late Nov - early Feb. By mid-late Feb the Sun angle begins increasing and overall temps do as well. It's rare in our climate to get the same kind of Arctic outbreaks we'd get in Dec or Jan in late Feb and March. Winter just doesn't feel the same by then.

I agree they've all been bad this winter. The PNA itself is useless without support from other indices. I'd be disappointed if we finally get some blocking in March and April and it ends up ruining Spring like in recent years. Just another awful winter in the string of awful winters since the 90s.

Not even a single fantasy storm on the GFS thru Feb 6. Geez, can't get much worse than that.

As Matt mentioned in the previous thread, the +NAO has been detrimental. We haven't had a continuous -NAO in DJF since 2010-11. Most of us can get by with a neutral to slightly positive NAO but only if other indices can help us out. A strong La Niña similar to 2010-11 or 2007-08 will help reset the balance, imo. <<< Australia could use it.

2020-21 will be rockin'. But for real, the Pacific has been in this constant Niño state since 2014. Need a mod-strong La Niña to balance the global climate. Every winter since 2014-15 has been half-ass if you think about it.

Was that only in North America or globally?

RIP Kobe.

Its 37F here in Toronto which is 10 degrees above avg. Some snow piles left. Sun rarely comes out in the winter here lol. I agree, it is awful.

It's like $500-700 from YYZ. YYZ is absurdly expensive. A lot of people in Toronto drive down to Buffalo to fly out.

He has yet to experience a futility winter. Detroit's been extremely lucky compared to most of us. In 2011-12 Toronto got 17" and 20.6" in 2009-10. Two futility winters in a very short time frame. Once he gets to that level, all our complaints will make total sense.

This month is running over 7 degrees above average. Coupled with over 4" of rain and you'd think it was March or November. Garbage. Atleast we somehow managed 11.6" of snow lol. I'll take that as a W.

Next weekend's storm is trending towards an East Coast special.

Raining like a bitch. It's even crazier when you consider that big rain storm we had 2 weeks ago lol.

Looks like a mix between Nino and Nina. Not the greatest look actually. Lack of blocking means any cold will be transient. This pattern is downright brutal.

Mar 08 blizzard redux. Let's get it.

EC just issued a rainfall warning for us. Gonna be a soaker tonight. As for snow, it all comes down to sfc temps. I think areas near the lake will get next to nothing. Both 12z NAM 3km and HRDPS have ~2.0" for YYZ. HRRR has nothing. What do you think?

I agree. Expectations for this winter were really high back in Oct-Nov. Fast forward to Jan 24 and were breaking records. Just not the ones we want.

I believe that warm pool is largely misunderstood. In the past and even now some people attributed that warm pool to the EPO. For example, the strong -EPO we saw in 2013-14 and 2014-15 was, as some believe, linked to the warm pool. But I believe the two aren't connected in that sense. Similarly, some people attributed the strong Atlantic blocking (NAO/AO) in 2008-2011 to the low solar activity. About 10 years later were seeing similar solar activity and yet the stratospheric PV is as strong as ever with no signs of any Arctic blocking. Another argument could be made for the October Siberian snow cover and Arctic blocking. They're all just theories and not enough concrete evidence to back them up.

Looks more like early April than early Feb. Need a La Nina to shake this up.

Geographic location is everything in winters like this. But even in colder winters we can all get rainers lol. The Lakes regulate temperatures quite a bit and our close proximity to the Atlantic and GOM helps us avoid brutal cold winters.

NAM says Toronto could get 3-5" of cement by Sunday lol. Seems like areas near the Lake will likely get <2".

Going to be mostly rain before a switch over to wet snow especially across higher elevations away from the Lake. NAM 3km has ~4" for Toronto but that all depends how fast temps drop on Sat.

I'm ready for Alek's rainer tom night in the GTA.