Snowstorms

12z Euro with two rain storms between now and next weekend. Zzzzz...

Man every winter on that, expect 2008 locally, was bad lol. Terrible pattern for all of us.

Got an inch this morning. It all melted now.

The January 7-8 threat has all but vanished on the models. Models show another rain maker/cutter around the 10th. As Alek said, if it ain't gonna snow let it torch.

Regardless of a pattern change, it sucks to lose December and the better part of January especially during the lowest sun angle too. It's hard to make up for that. Expectations for this winter were pretty high back in Fall. Part of that was due to low solar, descending QBO and weak El Nino. All of which would contribute towards blocking over the Arctic and Pacific. Although models show a pretty stout Aleutian ridge, there's still no sign of any pending snowstorms, even in the fantasy range. Let's not forget we lost December and half of January last year too. There have been comparisons being made between 2007-08 and the upcoming H5 pattern. Any insight on that?

This pattern has been very prevalent in the last few years. A lot of winters pre 1980 and even some 80's winters featured more consistent cold and snowy weather in DJFM. However, in recent times it feels like it's being crunched down into just a few weeks of intense wintry weather. Take for example, 2017-18. It was generally cold and snowy from December till early January and again in the first 2 weeks in February. Outside of those couple weeks it was mild to exceptionally warm for most of us. Spring/Summer 2019 featured strong blocking over the Arctic which nearly decimated the sea ice especially around the Sea of Chukotsk. However, as been the theme in recent years, Arctic blocking seems to be nonexistent in the winter. Could that be related to the heat being released from the Arctic during the fall after the sea ice loss in the summer?

Hopefully its a La Niña.

It's been a really long time since we've had a fully phased snowstorm in the region.

Pretty big changes on the 18z NAM vs 12z NAM. Story of this winter. Happy New Years everyone! Let's hope this decade is a better one.

December stats at YYZ: High: 36.8F, Highest temp: 52F Low: 24.2F, Lowest temp: 1.9F Mean: 30.5F (2.4F above avg) Snowfall: 11.5" (exactly average) Rain: 1.1" (near average) Days below freezing: 8 (normal is 12)

Is this the one around December 11th? Do you have a radar image of it? This storm apparently dropped 12-20" across my neck of the woods too.

Looks like 2016-17 which had endless rain and warmth through much of January.

These wraparound snows don't always workout, so it'll probably be an inch with heavy flurries most likely. Interestingly enough, depending how much snow and sleet Ottawa receives over the next few days, we could either surpass them or be closely tied with them for December. Don't think thats ever happened before.

Sucks to see another cutter on the 3rd.

34F and rain right now. The worst combo ever.

0.6"? Wow thats crazy! Don't think YYZ has ever had such a futility record before. I doubt we'll repeat that again. I think after Jan 10th we'll see more wintry chances as the Pacific readjusts itself.

Has Chicago ever experienced well below normal snowfall in consecutive months (Dec-Jan)?

Most of Canada is above normal temp wise lol with the exception of far northern Yukon. It's not a good pattern for any of us. 2011-12 sucked for us too.

Managed to shake off those pesky low-level clouds and the temp rose briefly to 51F at 11am. It has fallen to 41F now lol.

Fifty Shades of 2011-12.

Sounds like a La Nina pattern.

How did each of those winters fare in JFM? The 1800s were a much different climate state, so they wouldn't be good analogs, but still curious to know.

Only maxed out at 37F so far. Low level clouds keeping us cool compared to 53F in Windsor lol.

Here's a couple that stand out. 2019 Late Jan storm that dropped 4" followed by a 13.5" storm and near record cold Mid July Thunderstorm that dropped 3.0" in less than 2 hrs Oct 1 heat, YYZ topped out at 89.2F (warmest ever) Nov snowstorm As for 2010 - 2018 heres a couple that stand out for me. 2010: Mar torch and June thunderstorms that dropped 7.5" during the month 2011: GHD Fail storm (snow ratios screwed us from a forecasted 12+" to a mere 5" actual) and July heatwave 2012: The garbage winter, Morch, July heatwave and very wet Fall 2013: Feb storm that dropped 16”, July Toronto floods with 4.96” in a few hours and crazy Dec ice storm 2014: Jan, Feb and Mar record breaking cold and Feb storm that dropped 12.0" 2015: Coldest month (Feb) ever at YYZ with a mean temp of 9.3F , Feb storm that dropped 10.0" and record warmth Dec 2016: Mini Feb cold snap (YYZ dropped to -15.5F), Apr snowstorm and 2016 summer heat 2017: Late Feb record warmth, extremely wet May and miserable spring, June thunderstorm, late Sept heatwave and a Christmas eve storm followed by record cold 2018: Early Jan record cold, late Feb record warmth, mid Apr sleet storm, early July heatwave, Aug thunderstorms and Nov cold/snow

The 240 hr snow map on the 12z Euro is a joke. Three storms and all of them are rain lol.