andyhb
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Everything posted by andyhb
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Flying into DCA tonight and… well…
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Returns blossoming on KDVN again as the deformation zone starts to crank. They might pull off some huge totals.
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Welcome to a strong Nino winter in a warming climate.
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Don’t want that shift to continue if you’re in N IL or you risk mixing and the dryslot.
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Ope I see that title change.
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Reminds me quite a bit of a snow footprint with the GHD II storm in 2015.
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Again, this increase across the board is nearly entirely related to the cold sector precip getting more robust.
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Seems to me that some of this recent uptick in snowfall totals for those within the cold conveyor belt is an increase in coverage of the backside/deformation precipitation. One has to wonder if the general lack of convection further south may play a role in this. Ratios will no doubt be higher in this zone as temps crash behind the low.
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fatality
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18z NAM is a titanic bust for many lol. Have to think that the super warm December up north/lack of snow cover is contributing to all of these marginal temperature events. Basically a hangover from that. You essentially need a lobe of the PV to come down and bring the real cold like after this storm, but because the PV lobe is lagging behind this system, it doesn't contribute.
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Eh, historic would mean 18"+. The marginal temperatures are really putting a damper on what could be a top 5 storm.
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No other model has it that far north/pronounced despite many with similar SLP tracks. I have my doubts.
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NAM has this huge slug of warm air aloft at 850 mb + the surface temps are marginal. Cuts into snow totals significantly across the board.
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Eh? The Euro/EPS is stronger because the primary shortwave is deeper and more organized than on the GFS, not really due to phasing.
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Decided weaker/east shift on the GEFS. Historic storm off the table there.
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Lol main shortwave is too flat on the 12z GFS again.
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Those 00z runs were almost unanimous on a top 5 type snowstorm for Chicago and a wide swath of the Midwest. This thing is an absolute nuke when that shortwave kicks negative tilt and the mass evacuation really intensifies. The PV streamer into this thing is going to be a sight to behold on near-term guidance/satellite.
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Now with that said, there are a large number of members that are stronger/further north or west than the operational. Hell, the mean is nearly as deep as the operational at 108 hrs.
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12z Euro still has that slider/weaker look. Looks to track close to Cleveland.
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I'd imagine this one will be dubbed the MLK Blizzard if it comes to fruition.
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Widespread 50+ mph gusts pushing 60 at the lakeshore that run. Would be an upper echelon blizzard for a large chunk of the subforum.
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That is simply filthy at 500 mb.
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There are a lot of GEFS members with sub 970 mb solutions by the time the storm gets to the lakes this run. Definitely a majority.
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00z high res guidance is not painting a pretty picture for the central Gulf Coast tomorrow night. Incredible shear with 70-80 kt LL flow and the potential for embedded supercells. It’s going to be hard to keep that warm sector offshore with gale/storm force southerlies trying to advect moisture north.
