andyhb

The damage in this overhead imagery is pretty mind boggling.

This horrific damage from White House, Jamaica is right up there with the highest end I've seen out of a tropical cyclone. Near 100% structural failure/roof failure here.

Wait, recon made another turn. They seem to be trying to find a flight path around the strong convection on the east side of the CDO.

Annnnnnd recon bailed.

Bombs away with this microwave satellite presentation hot off the press. Very well organized inner core.

The GFS has been notably an eastern outlier for the track for days now.

Based on what?

Cayman Islands may also have a serious problem with this storm, especially if it gets as intense as a pretty significant chunk of guidance suggests it could.

Jamaica is in serious trouble with this one if it is able to drift westward and develop as conditions become more favorable shear-wise. An approach from the south ala the 12z Euro would be a) highly unusual and b) the most dangerous for Kingston especially if it winds up in the RFQ by some stroke of bad luck. Most of the really nasty TCs in Jamaica's history (e.g. Gilbert, Charlie) have approached from the E/ESE.

Have a pretty optimistic view that this will be the catalyst for a reanalysis of tornadoes from recent years for revisions to their ratings.

Locally significant tornado threat possible over NE OK and NW AR tomorrow, in the vicinity of a modifying outflow boundary from tonight's MCS along the OK/KS border.

Could always tell (and appreciate) when it was Burns who was moderating since he treated it all as it should be treated -> as a principal disciplining unruly children. RIP to a good man.

Why are we trying to spin this as a good thing? Seriously. There is no good reason to end SSMIS regardless of what program it is a part of. The other microwave imagery is significantly degraded compared to SSMIS.

So monitoring/predicting rapid intensification is worth nothing? Yeah, no. Intensity forecasting is the more difficult aspect of TC forecasting compared to track.

F*ck this administration. Too political for the weather board? Too bad. Absolute nonsense to decommission microwave satellite data at any time, but especially immediately before hurricane season.