Radtechwxman

Snow returns seem to be drying out in Peoria area. Seems like that band is struggling to lift north as well. Flakes are like pixie dust so far

On temperatures? I'm thinking it's advancing the rain snow line west too quickly

My thoughts exactly. And being near rain-snow line is a good sweet spot if you stay on snow side. Lol

I know you're close to where I am. What do you think of hrrr bringing the rain snow line as west as the IL River? I think it could come close but sure as west as hrrr/rap show it

Utter trash model. Literally shows rain here from tomorrow afternoon through the rest of the event. Makes no sense. I do believe there will be rain at times but there will definitely be snow at night

Just nam is showing this current wave being more robust than it currently is so has me wondering if it is right on a more robust 2nd wave than other models

0z hrrr torchy like gfs. Has rain wrapping around low all night Fri. I just don't buy that. There should be some CAA wrapping on backside of low. This first wave is definitely looking pretty paltry on radar. Wondering if precip by Gulf is disrupting moisture feed. Also looked like that first disturbance lifted more west than anticipated

Totally agree with this. With an already high water content snow with low ratios marginal daytime temps will definitely favor more slush over accumulations and white rain like you said. I think best shot here will be overnight Thurs into Fri when wind direction shifts more northerly as upper low pulls east

GFS continues to be a torch with most snow confined to Great Lakes. Either it's going to hit a home run being the only model sniffing out warmer temps or going to look really stupid next to the rest of guidance. I do believe there will be transitions between rain and snow especially preceding the main upper low closing off. However I think once that upper low deepens and closes off that things will certainly be more snowier than gfs is depicting

Definitely very marginal temps for any accumulation. However with a relatively strong closed low and the fact it will be strengthening as it passes over us, makes me think dynamics could compensate for lack of colder air. I remember this clipper a few years ago came through with very marginal temps but it was very compact and wound up. We ended up dynamically cooling to around 32-31 and efficiently accumulated snow with moderate to sometimes heavy rates. I know this isn't a clipper but made me think of how wrapped up this system is aloft

Pretty similar. Semi on board with nam with colder and snowier. Gfs has a lot more rain and snow slop. To me the pattern would support a more gfs like solution but we shall see

Yea I'm loving the nam. Keeps the profiles colder. Would like to see support from other models though. GFS and Euro are warmer with more mixed precipitation versus snow

I'm curious how accurate this precip depiction algorithm is. Currently says 33 here but airport reporting freezing rain. Surface freezing line definitely making good progress north now

This precip is moving pretty rapidly. Been all snow here so far. I'm honestly not sure we will see much of a period of sleet or freezing rain. Pretty substantial dry slot advancing north and east. Snow ripping pretty good here now though. Probably will be in the 2-3in range

Saturation occurred rapidly here. Went from a few flurries to full on moderate snow in minutes. Like Hawkeye states, flakes are pretty puny. Pixie dust. So that may hurt totals. I already see mixed precipitation creeping it's way north towards Macomb. Feel like I may see more mixed precip than snow

Any way to see ice accumulations from RGEM?

Well hrrr might be the only one worth watching for shorter term trends. Honestly models tend not to do well with these tricky mixed precipitation events

Yea who knows. Precip field looks nice expanding in southern Plains but it does have to get through a lot of dry air from departing surface high

Well hopefully 0z nam isn't close to being right. Lol. Very unimpressive. Seems to be the trend this winter

I see models are initializing weaker with the high than it actually is. For example 0z hrrr has a 1042mb high when it's actually 1047mb. Curious if that's why some of these models are warning surface temperatures too quick. Could be slower with a stronger departing high

This storm is certainly not trending in a good way. At least for me. Slower timing which allows temperatures to moderate quite a bit giving a much shorter window of wintry precipitation

Just looking at 0z GEFS rolling in, it's definitely further south than the OP. Like you I'm not buying a GFS solution till I see more support. Curious to see if 0z euro holds firm or if we see a northern shift in the wave

Yea definitely could slow down. Well even with it's current track on models today it's still getting accumulating snow well south of I80. But for significant accumulations this south I agree a much more south track would be needed

One would think with that strong high storm track will be limited on how north it can get but that depends on how east the high gets and how strong. Pretty confident there will be a large swath of accumulating snow and an icing zone but how far south this gets remains to be seen. I'm pretty confident I80 north will see a decent event but unsure south of there

It's GFS. Enough said. Probably going to see a lot of fluctuations the next several days