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Radtechwxman

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Everything posted by Radtechwxman

  1. Radtechwxman
    33 degrees and pouring rain. Just wonderful. Love it. Man if temps were colder to start this would have been a big ice storm. Models still seem to think a changeover here around 03z.
  2. Radtechwxman
    Man cutoff will definitely be insanely close to me along I74. Models are wavering on whether I cash in or not. Obviously impossible to nail exact location and timing of the rain snow line when it's highly dependent on dynamic cooling. Temps were 35-36 here but have now dropped to 33 with light rain. If it weren't for that warm nose aloft would probably get wet snow soon. But hoping maybe we're running cooler and can changeover quicker but not holding my breath.
  3. Radtechwxman
    Most everywhere will with marginal temps to start but you will changeover relatively quickly and will be ripping for hours. You're sitting pretty for this one.
  4. Radtechwxman
    Seeming more and more likely that this warm nose is going to be a major issue even further north and west. Hi res models before were at least showing a few hours of rippage here between 9pm and 12am but now looks like I may never changeover with initial band and may have to wait for any potential wrap around as the low pulls east.
  5. Radtechwxman
    Sounds about par for the course. Holding hope dynamic cooling will help cool the column more for a heavy wet snow vs rain snow mix. I don't forsee much in the way with freezing rain with marginal temps. Maybe some sleet or graupel with convective nature of WAA precip.
  6. Radtechwxman
    Definitely an improvement but I still feel it's thermals may be too warm, esp on southern flank
  7. Radtechwxman
    I appreciate your input. Even hi resolution cams can struggle with timing of changeover due to dynamic cooling. Earlier timing could be detrimental here during warmer sfc temps. Going to be a very nowcasting situation.
  8. Radtechwxman
    I'm riding a fine line near I74. Models showing a later changeover now here. Hoping precip can arrive later. 3km nam was showing a better deformation band Sun.
  9. Radtechwxman
    This is definitely one of those situations where we could see an extreme gradient across our county. Well actually that's all the time. Lol. Who am I kidding. I74 is always the cutoff for whatever reason. I'm definitely glad I live on north side of Peoria but would feel better if I was in like Dunlap, Princeville, or Chillicothe. Ha. 03z rap looked nice. Kept it snow 22z-05z roughly. But if this trends anymore north we're screwed.
  10. Radtechwxman
    I'm definitely worried about that warm nose here. Shouldn't be much of an issue for you. Precip is going to be intense esp on leading edge so banking on that wet bulbing temps near freezing and keeping snow around for a bit before the low gets closer and warmer air inevitably pushes north.
  11. Radtechwxman
    Could definitely see some some whiteout like conditions if you got those mixing down with 1-2 in/hr rates.
  12. Radtechwxman
    Some models were showing lingering snow well through Sunday before albeit lighter in nature. Probably has to do with low weakening and transferring to the coast for the nor'easter.
  13. Radtechwxman
    One thing I am noticing with this system is after the WAA snows ahead of the main low, seems like the deformation band falls apart pretty quickly. I know this initial push was looking to be the bigger show of the two but seems like there will not be much after that. Regardless ir looks to be a hard hit really fast. Hoping the intense rates can help with dynamic cooling here and keep me snow longer before rain snow line pushes north. Hi res definitely suggesting that. Globals not as much.
  14. Radtechwxman
    Anyone have the 18z Kuchera map for Euro? I'm not sold on 10:1 ratios this south. More likely north of I80 in colder air and the more intense mesoscale banding.
  15. Radtechwxman
    You are definitely right and something I'm going to stop doing unless in a banter thread but with a red tag I know you're held to a higher standard of content. I definitely let this ho hum winter get to me lately. I'm incredibly passionate about meteorology both winter storms and severe storms. However, as a degreed met, I should keep it strictly to meteorological discussion. I look up to mets like you and appreciate all you put into your work for LOT and for us on the forums.
  16. Radtechwxman
    Appreciate the info. Who are the admins for the group?
  17. Radtechwxman
    Just out of curiosity how do you get the red tag? Do you have to be a practicing meteorologist? I have a Bachelor's in Atmospheric Sciences from WIU. Just was curious how that worked. Sorry to get off topic.
  18. Radtechwxman
    For me here timing will be crucial. If precip can move in Sat evening vs afternoon I stand a better chance of seeing wintry precip. I do think that there could still be a nice burst of heavy snow with dynamic and evaporative cooling for areas further south that will likely changeover at some point. Here's to hoping.
  19. Radtechwxman
    Man if only I could lock this in. Pure pound town. Might me a tad cool with sfc temps though. Warm nose always seems to get underestimated.
  20. Radtechwxman
    You and me both man. Just not our winter. Looks my I80 north call was a good one and follows the persistence of winter storms this season. Though I do look to miss the heaviest swath, I'm hoping I can manage a few hours of heavy rates on the WAA band before changing over. Starting to look like that will be the biggest producer with this system vs the usual deformation zone. I see another dry slot could impact areas I80 south after the WAA wing precip.
  21. Radtechwxman
    WPC for now seems to favor a track near I70. Obviously can change but think that's a good call on overall blend of the models.
  22. Radtechwxman
    I mean that wouldn't shock me given trends like you said. But I definitely think GFS thermals are too warm and it may be underestimating dynamic and/or evaporative cooling.
  23. Radtechwxman
    Do you still think GFS is too north esp parallel GFS? Most models seem to track low near I70. That was closer to I72.
  24. Radtechwxman
    Haha. I wish. That's a rare feat. I will definitely be close to the mixing line and anticipate a change to a mix or rain for a bit but how long I'm not sure. Hoping I can at least get a good front end thump from the WAA wing. That will probably have more intense rates than the deformation band.
  25. Radtechwxman
    Overall pretty decent run to run consistency with minimal track changes. It definitely bumped north on sfc low track. Hoping those north bumps stop because I'm dangerously close to sharp southern cut off. Euro has a good front end thump for a good chunk of us.
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