Radtechwxman
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Everything posted by Radtechwxman
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I'm riding a fine line near I74. Models showing a later changeover now here. Hoping precip can arrive later. 3km nam was showing a better deformation band Sun.
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This is definitely one of those situations where we could see an extreme gradient across our county. Well actually that's all the time. Lol. Who am I kidding. I74 is always the cutoff for whatever reason. I'm definitely glad I live on north side of Peoria but would feel better if I was in like Dunlap, Princeville, or Chillicothe. Ha. 03z rap looked nice. Kept it snow 22z-05z roughly. But if this trends anymore north we're screwed.
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I'm definitely worried about that warm nose here. Shouldn't be much of an issue for you. Precip is going to be intense esp on leading edge so banking on that wet bulbing temps near freezing and keeping snow around for a bit before the low gets closer and warmer air inevitably pushes north.
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Could definitely see some some whiteout like conditions if you got those mixing down with 1-2 in/hr rates.
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Some models were showing lingering snow well through Sunday before albeit lighter in nature. Probably has to do with low weakening and transferring to the coast for the nor'easter.
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One thing I am noticing with this system is after the WAA snows ahead of the main low, seems like the deformation band falls apart pretty quickly. I know this initial push was looking to be the bigger show of the two but seems like there will not be much after that. Regardless ir looks to be a hard hit really fast. Hoping the intense rates can help with dynamic cooling here and keep me snow longer before rain snow line pushes north. Hi res definitely suggesting that. Globals not as much.
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Anyone have the 18z Kuchera map for Euro? I'm not sold on 10:1 ratios this south. More likely north of I80 in colder air and the more intense mesoscale banding.
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You are definitely right and something I'm going to stop doing unless in a banter thread but with a red tag I know you're held to a higher standard of content. I definitely let this ho hum winter get to me lately. I'm incredibly passionate about meteorology both winter storms and severe storms. However, as a degreed met, I should keep it strictly to meteorological discussion. I look up to mets like you and appreciate all you put into your work for LOT and for us on the forums.
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Appreciate the info. Who are the admins for the group?
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Just out of curiosity how do you get the red tag? Do you have to be a practicing meteorologist? I have a Bachelor's in Atmospheric Sciences from WIU. Just was curious how that worked. Sorry to get off topic.
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For me here timing will be crucial. If precip can move in Sat evening vs afternoon I stand a better chance of seeing wintry precip. I do think that there could still be a nice burst of heavy snow with dynamic and evaporative cooling for areas further south that will likely changeover at some point. Here's to hoping.
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Man if only I could lock this in. Pure pound town. Might me a tad cool with sfc temps though. Warm nose always seems to get underestimated.
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You and me both man. Just not our winter. Looks my I80 north call was a good one and follows the persistence of winter storms this season. Though I do look to miss the heaviest swath, I'm hoping I can manage a few hours of heavy rates on the WAA band before changing over. Starting to look like that will be the biggest producer with this system vs the usual deformation zone. I see another dry slot could impact areas I80 south after the WAA wing precip.
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WPC for now seems to favor a track near I70. Obviously can change but think that's a good call on overall blend of the models.
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I mean that wouldn't shock me given trends like you said. But I definitely think GFS thermals are too warm and it may be underestimating dynamic and/or evaporative cooling.
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Do you still think GFS is too north esp parallel GFS? Most models seem to track low near I70. That was closer to I72.
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Haha. I wish. That's a rare feat. I will definitely be close to the mixing line and anticipate a change to a mix or rain for a bit but how long I'm not sure. Hoping I can at least get a good front end thump from the WAA wing. That will probably have more intense rates than the deformation band.
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Overall pretty decent run to run consistency with minimal track changes. It definitely bumped north on sfc low track. Hoping those north bumps stop because I'm dangerously close to sharp southern cut off. Euro has a good front end thump for a good chunk of us.
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THIS. 100%. Lol. Central IL has been stuck in between split flow mostly. Not trying to compare numbers but you guys definitely have had more opportunities so far this winter. Have they all panned out? No. That's what I was saying. But I know most of IL north to south is below average on snow. Hopefully this storm can give a lot of us some decent snow.
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Still doing better than this area of IL. By far worse winter I can remember snow wise here. Have had more rain and icing events than anything. I know I'm complaining and I apologize. Just been a highly frustrating winter as it has been for a lot of us in this thread unless you live in Iowa. Ha. I could see a front end thump before switching over to rain or mix and then probably back to snow as low pulls away.
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Yea great if you live I80 north. Imagine that. You northern IL people are snow greedy. Lol
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I was! I was on the northern fringe yesterday of the heaviest swath. Now back to the southern fringe. I can't win this winter man. Feel like north shifts aren't done either. My earlier call of another I80 north special will probably be right. Euro still good here but a little too close for comfort. Biggest snow so far here was like 2.5-3in after the ice storm on New Year's Day. Forever riding the gradient here. It always seems to ride along I74 bisecting my county.
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UKMET trying to crush my hopes and dreams. I want to believe I have a shot with this but definitely have the I80 north special vibes as usual.
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I mean if you're following persistence fits the overall trend this winter. But holding hope. Team euro/gem. Ride or die
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NO. Time for I80 south to score. Share the love
