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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    A little bit. But who cares because 1. it's not a huge shift at all, and 2. it's the SREFs.
  2. LVblizzard
    Surface doesn’t quite do it. But it’s very close. One more shift and it’s basically the GFS.
  3. LVblizzard
    I’m not looking forward to making a first call on my page later today. GFS has over a foot, CMC/UKMET have just a couple inches, and who knows what the Euro will show. At this point I’m confident heavy snow makes it to the Delaware River…but how far will it get into PA?
  4. LVblizzard
    The initial wave isn’t from the IVT, it’s from the interaction of the northern and southern streams. The IVT only comes into play once the low starts to head well east. It actually mostly misses us on this run and slams York/Lancaster.
  5. LVblizzard
    Euro holds. Light to moderate event for all of us. We still have a window for a west trend and a big storm but if we don’t see it by 0z tomorrow night, it probably won’t happen.
  6. LVblizzard
    Euro looks like a hold to me pending the precip maps. It probably won’t be as good north of NYC but south of there it’s similar to 18z.
  7. LVblizzard
    I already don't trust the GFS. But if it fails with this storm again the government should just permanently retire it.
  8. LVblizzard
    Looks like a…ahhhhh never mind.
  9. LVblizzard
    Big positive trend on the 18z NAM and RRFS. Just another subtle step in the right direction at 0z and this suddenly starts to look very interesting.
  10. LVblizzard
    The rug pull was much harsher with that one. It went from a big storm to almost nothing in just a day or two. At least with this one we still have a decent chance at a light to moderate event as the phase happens.
  11. LVblizzard
    If all of JB's predictions came true everyone in the northeast would double or triple their yearly snow totals.
  12. LVblizzard
  13. LVblizzard
    Add the Euro to the “nuisance event” category. It just doesn’t want to budge.
  14. LVblizzard
    Not really. We have the ICON showing a nuisance event at best, the UKMET gives nobody anything more than flurries, and the NAM was going to end up pretty weak too. The models are split close to 50/50 right now on the outcome.
  15. LVblizzard
    If you’re comparing it to 12z it’s better. But 18z was overall better than the current run.
  16. LVblizzard
    It started off better but that piece of energy over the great lakes ended up farther south which doesn’t allow for the amplification we need to have this thing climb the coast.
  17. LVblizzard
    Tonight’s model scorecard so far: Big storm: GFS Plowable event: Canadian Nuisance event: ICON Miss/flurries: UKMET, probably the NAM
  18. LVblizzard
    Well the GFS certainly isn't backing down. 1-2 feet south of Philly, 6-12" up to the Lehigh Valley. Not really buying it right now but it's nice to at least have a shred of hope remaining.
  19. LVblizzard
    I think our best bet is with the inverted trough feature that most models are picking up on. The ICON showed a region-wide 1-3” from it. We’ll see what the other models do.
  20. LVblizzard
    Sun angle is much higher than in December which makes it feel warmer and more like spring. That’s my guess anyway.
  21. LVblizzard
    It’s crazy how so many people are always surprised when it snows well into March. Yes it’s not meteorological winter anymore, but historically it’s a snowier month than December.
  22. LVblizzard
    18z Euro doesn’t give us what we want but it improved quite a bit over 12z at both H5 and the surface. Tonight’s 0z runs will be very interesting.
  23. LVblizzard
    18z GFS got better too. Only 18z model that's a dud so far is the NAM, and it still improved at H5. Interested to see what the Euro does. I don't expect it to be a hit, but I'd welcome any improvements.
  24. LVblizzard
    Are we all just going to ignore the RGEM? End of the run looks decent and it would probably lead to something pretty juicy.
  25. LVblizzard
    The NAM did improve slightly at H5 but the surface is still complete dogshit.
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