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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    Unless the mesos go way SE I’m not putting any stock in the Euro at all. Under 24 hours it’s typically better to look at mesos than globals.
  2. LVblizzard
    15z RAP throws Philly weenies a bone…
  3. LVblizzard
    Figured I’d make a thread since we’re close enough to the storm that we’re immune to the bad fortune a dedicated thread brings. Hopefully. As it stands now, this looks like a significant storm for the Lehigh Valley and Poconos with plowable snow north of the turnpike, and a nuisance event towards the immediate Philly area. Should be a fun one!
  4. LVblizzard
    I’m noticing that some of the hi-res/meso models now only have rain for a very short period of time towards I-78, with the majority of precip being snow. Some of them change the Lehigh Valley to snow as early as 2-3 am.
  5. LVblizzard
    I’m not a morning person at all but it looks like I’ll be setting an alarm for 5-6 am tomorrow to watch this all unfold. I’m in the jackpot zone on pretty much every model minus the Euro. Should be a fun one. Maybe with some thundersnow too?
  6. LVblizzard
    Both NAMs park the death band over the Lehigh Valley tomorrow morning. 2-3”/hr rates at the height of it.
  7. LVblizzard
    You’re increasing totals? I think I’ll go up to 4-8” if/when I do…low ratios and BL issues scare me. Only way we get to 10” is if we have an earlier changeover and get under that death band for 3+ hours.
  8. LVblizzard
    Bobby from EPAWA saw the 0z guidance and essentially tossed his map from earlier this evening. No one really expected this shift, hobbyists and mets alike.
  9. LVblizzard
    The “long range” HRRR past 24 hours typically isn’t very good. Until I see a clear trend from every other model towards this solution (which I don’t think will happen) I’m sticking with 3-6” for our area.
  10. LVblizzard
    Good lord the HRRR completely wrecks everyone!
  11. LVblizzard
    18z Euro continues the colder trend.
  12. LVblizzard
    Saturday could be interesting as well if the GFS is any indication…
  13. LVblizzard
    21z RAP is COLD!
  14. LVblizzard
    Posted 3-6” for the Lehigh Valley on my page earlier this evening. Tonight’s 0z models have me feeling pretty good about that.
  15. LVblizzard
    If the ICON gets this thing right I may just have to quit this hobby.
  16. LVblizzard
    Euro is not good if you’re south of the Lehigh Valley. There’s a period of heavy snow on Tuesday as temps crash but not very much.
  17. LVblizzard
    It’s been a long time since there was such a wide spread of solutions less than 3 days out. The ICON rains on everyone, even the Poconos. The GFS plasters the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. The UKMET is an I-95 snowstorm. And the NAM, CMC, and RGEM are light to moderate events at best. This thing is a nightmare to forecast. We’ll see what the Euro shows in about half an hour..
  18. LVblizzard
    Huh? No it’s not. If anything it ticked north a little. It’s warmer than 0z and more tucked into the coast. Not a bad run by any means but it’s less of a weenie fest than last night’s run.
  19. LVblizzard
    HUG HUG HUG the Euro! A foot for the Lehigh Valley with 1-3"/hr rates early Tuesday morning!
  20. LVblizzard
    RGEM is another nice hit for the LV/Poconos. Models are starting to converge on a jackpot zone somewhere between I-78 and I-80.
  21. LVblizzard
    Big jump south on the Euro control. Is Philly back in it?
  22. LVblizzard
    End of the 18z Euro. LV/Poconos jackpot zone this run. Philly burbs start as rain but flip to snow as heavier precip arrives.
  23. LVblizzard
    Kuchera maps are more accurate for this event since they take lower ratios into account.
  24. LVblizzard
    Some plowable snow down to Philly on the GFS. Big hit north of the turnpike.
  25. LVblizzard
    But not too much. Otherwise it’s suppressed and hardly anyone gets snow.
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