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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    GFS/CMC and its ensembles are all in for next weekend. UKMET is a big hit too. Let’s see if the Euro follows…
  2. LVblizzard
    I doubt it. It’s been drizzling in Allentown tonight. If it’s not snowing here it won’t snow in the Philly burbs.
  3. LVblizzard
    GFS joins the Euro. Looks decent for the Lehigh Valley northward but if you’re south of the turnpike it’s more rain than snow.
  4. LVblizzard
    Next weekend’s storm threat looks pretty good. I’m much more concerned about suppression than rain and I wouldn’t be surprised if we see lots more flip-flopping on the models. Hopefully it works out and gives all of us a decent snowstorm. The mid-week threat isn’t very promising. I think some areas could get an inch or so from the northern stream disturbance but a bigger coastal storm seems pretty unlikely. New England is still in the game, although not by much.
  5. LVblizzard
    Woke up with a dusting of snow on the grass. It’s almost gone already. I still haven’t seen a single flake of snow actually falling this winter as I was in Europe during the first week in December and I woke up too late to see it the other two times.
  6. LVblizzard
    The Kuchera maps actually showed lower totals than the 10:1 maps for this event. For the big events they can get really weenie but for borderline events like this they're generally the more accurate maps.
  7. LVblizzard
    And now no snow chances for at least the next two weeks! Yippeeeeee! It’s like last winter never even ended.
  8. LVblizzard
    You still think we’re getting 1-3”? I doubt we see anything more than an inch, and even that’s being a little generous.
  9. LVblizzard
    Really wish that GFS would verify but I don’t trust it at all in setups like this. I’ll be watching the NAMs and HRRR much more closely today.
  10. LVblizzard
    0z models have begun to come in and the HRRR is painting a very snowy picture for the Philly burbs into the Lehigh Valley and Poconos.
  11. LVblizzard
    If we could lock in the 18z 3km NAM I would be VERY happy!
  12. LVblizzard
    12z RGEM spoils the party and says everyone loses but the Poconos. Still a positive trend from 0z.
  13. LVblizzard
    12z hi-res models are really bullish on Monday morning snow, especially west of I-95. If we can get that trough to dig just a little more we could be looking at some decent accumulations closer to the cities.
  14. LVblizzard
    The first region-wide snowfall will happen sometime between December 1st and 6th. Why? I’ll be in London that week and it would be my luck to miss the first snow of the season.
  15. LVblizzard
    Medium and long range models are picking up right where we left off last winter with a warmer than normal pattern for much of November. There are some hints of pattern change after Thanksgiving but for now, we don’t even have any possible first flakes to get excited about.
  16. LVblizzard
    November is freaking boring. No hurricanes to track, no chances of thunderstorms, and snow is still weeks away. Looking at the long range GFS doesn’t even give us any fantasy storms. It’s just a brutal month for weenies.
  17. LVblizzard
    That was a good 2 hours of continuous thunder and lightning here. Enjoyed every little bit of it.
  18. LVblizzard
    Getting treated to a fantastic light show just west of Allentown. Haven’t seen nighttime lightning this good in a long time.
  19. LVblizzard
    Decent little storm passing through Allentown right now. No lightning but very heavy rain and some gusty winds.
  20. LVblizzard
    Nothing crazy in the western suburbs of Allentown but we just had continuous thunder and lightning for an hour and a half. Still going too…looks like it’ll move out soon though. It’s been awhile since we had a nice nighttime storm like this.
  21. LVblizzard
    This line is no joke. Ended my chase near Shrewsbury and I’m just letting it pass over me. Wind is gusting to 50-60 mph easily and lightning is nonstop.
  22. LVblizzard
    Sun is out in Allentown. Not staying here today, though - going to head to southern PA/MD to chase there.
  23. LVblizzard
    He thinks PA has the best tornado potential, but he posted that he’ll be chasing VA.
  24. LVblizzard
    Upgrade to moderate risk (45% hatched wind!!!) southwest of Lancaster. Enhanced covers the whole area besides for the shore. I’m thinking the best storms stay south of the turnpike.
  25. LVblizzard
    Tomorrow could go moderate towards the York-DC corridor. Would be the first moderate risk in PA in over 5 years (5/15/18).
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