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LVblizzard

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Everything posted by LVblizzard

  1. LVblizzard
    Medium and long range models are picking up right where we left off last winter with a warmer than normal pattern for much of November. There are some hints of pattern change after Thanksgiving but for now, we don’t even have any possible first flakes to get excited about.
  2. LVblizzard
    November is freaking boring. No hurricanes to track, no chances of thunderstorms, and snow is still weeks away. Looking at the long range GFS doesn’t even give us any fantasy storms. It’s just a brutal month for weenies.
  3. LVblizzard
    That was a good 2 hours of continuous thunder and lightning here. Enjoyed every little bit of it.
  4. LVblizzard
    Getting treated to a fantastic light show just west of Allentown. Haven’t seen nighttime lightning this good in a long time.
  5. LVblizzard
    Decent little storm passing through Allentown right now. No lightning but very heavy rain and some gusty winds.
  6. LVblizzard
    Nothing crazy in the western suburbs of Allentown but we just had continuous thunder and lightning for an hour and a half. Still going too…looks like it’ll move out soon though. It’s been awhile since we had a nice nighttime storm like this.
  7. LVblizzard
    This line is no joke. Ended my chase near Shrewsbury and I’m just letting it pass over me. Wind is gusting to 50-60 mph easily and lightning is nonstop.
  8. LVblizzard
    Sun is out in Allentown. Not staying here today, though - going to head to southern PA/MD to chase there.
  9. LVblizzard
    He thinks PA has the best tornado potential, but he posted that he’ll be chasing VA.
  10. LVblizzard
    Upgrade to moderate risk (45% hatched wind!!!) southwest of Lancaster. Enhanced covers the whole area besides for the shore. I’m thinking the best storms stay south of the turnpike.
  11. LVblizzard
    Tomorrow could go moderate towards the York-DC corridor. Would be the first moderate risk in PA in over 5 years (5/15/18).
  12. LVblizzard
    First PA chase of the year for me tomorrow. I’m thinking York is a good starting point.
  13. LVblizzard
    12z NAM has a PDS Tornado sounding for northern Lehigh County tomorrow. If a storm can tap into this…
  14. LVblizzard
    Keeping a close eye on Monday's severe wx threat for the I-81 and I-78 areas. Some models are extremely bullish on a tornado threat. I will be out chasing if some good supercells get going.
  15. LVblizzard
    Was at Wawa when the storms hit Allentown and the lightning was crazy there. At least 5 strikes within 1/2 mile and about a dozen within a mile or two. Haven’t seen a barrage of close CGs like that in a LONG time.
  16. LVblizzard
    Hell of a storm ongoing in Allentown. Lots of thunder and lightning, gusty winds, and even some small hail.
  17. LVblizzard
    We got a light dusting on the grass which will probably be gone when I wake up tomorrow. Steady light snow continues here.
  18. LVblizzard
    Yeah just flurries near Allentown. No accumulation of any sort anywhere.
  19. LVblizzard
    This is one of those storms where downsloping off the Poconos creates a screw zone in the Lehigh Valley. Even the most optimistic runs have shown totals decreasing by a good margin from Carbon/Monroe to Lehigh/Northampton counties.
  20. LVblizzard
    12z 3km NAM gets plowable snow all the way to Philly and south Jersey.
  21. LVblizzard
    GFS came southwest a little. Poconos get in on the good stuff while the Lehigh Valley sees plowable snow. Gonna be pretty close around here.
  22. LVblizzard
    0z NAM says hello Lehigh Valley. Almost a foot of snow and still coming down hard at the end of the run.
  23. LVblizzard
    The Euro has a bias of digging the northern stream too much, and as a result, it likes to show east coast bombs when other models have fish storms. Remember Juno? Probably the best example. Euro stubbornly showed 1-2 feet for the Philly area and held onto that solution till the bitter end. Actual amounts weren’t even close to that.
  24. LVblizzard
    Looking like a southern Poconos special…I could see 3-6” there. Radar still looks pretty good out west for an inch or two in the Lehigh Valley later.
  25. LVblizzard
    I just posted 1-3” for the Lehigh Valley on my page. The NAM is an outlier with how far north it has the heavy band. The HRRR and the other mesos favor Bethlehem and Easton more. They also have up to 5” in the Lehigh Valley but that’s not happening with the warm ground temps. Snow will eventually accumulate due to the heavy rates, but with a quick hitter like this, every hour counts, and this thing looks to be in and out in around 4-5 hours.
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