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LongBeachSurfFreak

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Everything posted by LongBeachSurfFreak

  1. LongBeachSurfFreak
    You were right the first time. I do not have the time currently to list the all the reasons why. A quick answer would be to compare the damage costs from Floyd to those from Sandy. Floyd caused similar fresh water flooding to Ida.
  2. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s all perspective. For some this was an inconvenience, only 2” at the wantagh meso in the neighborhood I grew up in, which was devastated during sandy. The difference is Sandy was more then an inconvenience for everyone as it also had widespread wind impacts.
  3. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Hands down the worst flash flooding I have ever seen on campus on the uws currently. All storm drains were shooting water out
  4. LongBeachSurfFreak
    There’s going to be a stratiform rain shield with lots of yellows and oranges on the radar on the north side that will produce an even 4-6”. It’s the south side where there will be banding with much heavier rates and isolated 10”+ amounts that will be the danger zone. As always it will be impossible to predict exactly where the bands set up.
  5. LongBeachSurfFreak
    It’s not going regain tropical characteristics but it will get a baroclynic boost. Regardless there are going to be flooding issues in the mid Atlantic. We had 7” of rain in NYC from Henri last week and another 2” since then. 6 more inches in a short time will cause major flash flooding
  6. LongBeachSurfFreak
    If that’s the case there is going to be major flash flooding. I’m very concerned about water table rise as well.
  7. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Grand Isle missed the inner eye wall and worst surge. And as you said hurricanes travel with their surge, if this had been a long track 4 the surge would have been much greater. Another thing to consider is the building types in the area. Almost everything right near the water is on pilings. That stretch of coast is so incredibly hurricane prone things are built to last through even a major.
  8. LongBeachSurfFreak
    6” of rain after the the recent rains will cause major problems. When we had 10+ inches in October 05 on the island the whole water table rose on my parents block and flooded everyone’s basements
  9. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I feel really bad about coastal areas there that are board flat. This is pretty close to a worst case scenario.
  10. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I’m worried about soft ground issues on the island. We had another moderate rain event (2” at the wantagh meso and more over parts of Suffolk) this weekend. Trees are sitting in soup. Add another major rain event and it will not take much wind to cause problems.
  11. LongBeachSurfFreak
    The wind has been relentless at Jones beach all day. Sand storm conditions with winds sustained 25 and gusting to 35mph
  12. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I think we see something similar to Katrina where within 12 hours you have this monster crystal clear eye pop on satellite. No just RI but explosive intensification. OHC is just perfect
  13. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Max overall 175 max at landfall 140 pressure at landfall 922 location New Iberia
  14. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Full on monsoon currently on the uws. Here we go again with flash flooding!
  15. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Those storms along the Jersey shore have to be producing some serious flash flooding. Stationary forever.
  16. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Rapid intensification is still very difficult to forecast. So something much higher then a cat 3 is still very much on the table. The NHC is playing the middle road between a Cat 1/2 if rapid intensification doesn’t occur and 4/5 if it goes full tilt.
  17. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Your making assumptions based off the lower Manhattan reports. 1821 just happened to have the perfect track for surge for Manhattan. But it was less impactful for the region as a whole then Sandy
  18. LongBeachSurfFreak
    38 was a more impactful storm east of its center with a true cat 3 tropical core. I could see a scenario where we something similar displaced 50 miles west. That’s the ultimate storm we could hypothetically see here as a cat 3 core would bring a higher storm surge and obviously much greater winds then sandy. You would obliterate the power grids with PR style outages lasting months
  19. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Perfect example ground truth exceeding radar images just now in the city. Some of the heaviest rain I have seen with that small cell. Pure monsoon
  20. LongBeachSurfFreak
    This is very much in line with me thinking. I would love to experience a major hit the island. But this storm seems more of a nuisance. Without major extra tropical transition this is a core event. So unless your within 20 miles of the landfall location winds are rather pedestrian
  21. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I doubt the NHC will adjust their track and resultant warnings too much today. If the far west trend is real then maybe tomorrow
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Any hurricane will cause upwelling regardless of speed. That’s why OHC is more important then surface temps. The reason our biggest strongest canes are moving fast is they just don’t have time to weaken over our cooler waters as they rocket out of the Gulf Stream. A big reason our strongest cane in modern times 38, was also the fastest moving Atlantic hurricane of all time
  23. LongBeachSurfFreak
    Those temps are very deceptive. They are surface temps. Our waters cool rapidly once 10+ feet down. So move a hurricane over and the winds and seas quickly upwell cooler water. Watch the water temps after this weekend cool into the high 60s
  24. LongBeachSurfFreak
    While it definitely initiated too strong there is a nice window for significant intensification while Henri is over high OHC and aligned with vertical shear. Pretty much anything is still on the table. The only certainty is in large swells and beach erosion regardless of track
  25. LongBeachSurfFreak
    .00” at the wantagh meso to add to the .00” for the last 7 days. Hopefully that will change in a big way soon
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