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SnowGoose69

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Everything posted by SnowGoose69

  1. SnowGoose69
    Even the GEFS isn’t exactly a shutout type pattern. All 3 of the ensembles GEFS GPS EPS suggest there’s a period day 8-12 or so where things briefly look bad before more ridging looks to occur out west with the low going back towards the Aleutians
  2. SnowGoose69
    Even with a bad EPO with those that indices that good the pattern wouldn’t be as awful as some of the GFS op runs or ensembles have attempted to spit out
  3. SnowGoose69
    I would also side more EPS. The last few winters it seems whatever ensemble groups handles the first 10-16 day pattern shift in later November or early December ends up being the one that is right the rest of the way. Last winter it was the GEFS for sure
  4. SnowGoose69
    That pattern is more or less physically impossible. I guess it’s simply the averaging out of the members but if you had normal heights or weak ridging like that from SEA to YUK and that sort of block in the Davis Straits you wouldn’t see long duration or stable above normal heights like that near Ohio or Virginia. That’s probably a product of members trying to develop a deep storm over Colorado
  5. SnowGoose69
    The Op GFS had another “glorious” run at 12Z. It basically just continually repeats the same thing over and over Day 7-16 which is almost certainly wrong but it’s funny how many torch cutter Op runs it’s continued to have while the ensembles argue for something totally different
  6. SnowGoose69
    The Pacific is really bad til 1/1 which is partly why but models, especially Op runs can show patterns at day 7-10-14 that don’t look anything like the indices and ultimately correct as you get in closer. We saw that in recent winters where MJO was raging phase 5 and the AO positive and the GFS of Euro Op run at D10 thinks you’ll have -20 850s with a trof in the east
  7. SnowGoose69
    Unlikely. You would need the Niña to remain strong in all likelihood to lose the Atlantic. There are very few if any cases since 1950 where December had a solid AO/NAO that were negative where there wasn’t another long duration negative stretch in January or February without some sort of decent La Niña influence.
  8. SnowGoose69
    Ridge out west too displaced to the east and not tall enough. The only case I know of recently where that pattern produced was 12/25/10. You need a nasty nasty west based block probably to get a DC to Boston snow event with that ridge that displaced east. 2/23/89 was somewhat close as well and we saw that largely failed for most areas other than the immediate coast
  9. SnowGoose69
    I remember thinking the models were going to blow it because I didn’t understand the disconnect up in NJ given how far south the whole transfer and development happened. In the end they did end up blowing how far north the surface low would get by NJ before it kicked east. This caused the CCB feature to impact the NYC metro more than any guidance suggested
  10. SnowGoose69
    As far as I know this was only the second storm on record where BGM and ALB recorded 20 plus inches and NYC also had 10 or more. 3/3/93 was the only other case
  11. SnowGoose69
    The Op GFS for some reason in -AO/NAO pattens has a tendency beyond 180 to love dumping trofs into the plains or west. We saw this back near 12/1-12/5 and it never came close to verifying
  12. SnowGoose69
    Both storms occurred with pretty lousy Pacific patterns but this was much more close to a southwest flow type event than that was
  13. SnowGoose69
    My hunch is the block led to the surface low taking a slightly faster east turn which led to areas down into NYC seeing more snow on the back side than expected
  14. SnowGoose69
    This would probably be the only snow event other than March 1993 where Albany and Binghamton saw over 2 feet and NYC reported double digits as well
  15. SnowGoose69
    11.3 I think. I doubt they got that but they would only need a small amount before the end of the month now to do it
  16. SnowGoose69
    Honestly if the dry punch didn’t come 2 hours early would have probably had 2-4 inches more
  17. SnowGoose69
    6.5 at NYC that’s more than all of last winter. Definitely seems low as usual off a LE of .87
  18. SnowGoose69
    They had 2.6 off .28 liquid at the time
  19. SnowGoose69
    I’ve been told Upton in the case of a ptype change usually has them measure out of time to ensure the correct measurement. We’ve seen cases however where they don’t do it or they get it badly wrong
  20. SnowGoose69
    When I went only 5-9 in my forecast it was because of mixing, not because of a dry slot 3-4 hours early. Might be right for wrong reason
  21. SnowGoose69
    Evidently not lol. The daily record is actually from like 1896 or something and is 7.0...their official site shows it wrong but the daily climo report showed the record of 7 at 440pm
  22. SnowGoose69
    They measured 2.6 on .28 at 7pm so yeah with that .15 the next hour they’re likely at 4 or so now
  23. SnowGoose69
    The 3KM NAM had them changing over a good 2 hours ago but they went over closer to RGEM forecast. I was surprised how high the forecast totals were there
  24. SnowGoose69
    NYC had .17 liquid this past hour
  25. SnowGoose69
    .11 liquid already. Looks like its been about 1 inch
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