SnowGoose69
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Everything posted by SnowGoose69
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Neutral ENSO winters which occur near the solar max historically are very bad for some reason...there has been many theories as to why...most likely its that the AO/NAO simply average strongly positive in those years but it may also be that without the La Nina/El Nino you lose some ability to get pronounced ridging or troughing in some locations so the pattern has a tendency to be more zonal and the bad AO/NAO amplify that issue
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December 2015 acted like a La Nina because the MJO I think went raging through 3=4=5....rarely do you ever see a SER in a strong Nino December and we did that year. Places like Atlanta and Charlotte had their warmest Decembers on record...that never should happen in an El Nino unless you have a raging zonal flow and no cold air around, not a SER
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There is next to no chance its strong. I'd say there is a better chance of neutral ENSO next winter than a strong Nino
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The summer correlation and numerous TSTM events seems to work better if you go back 50 years....2002 though, at least in NYC got warm late
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Any spring where we go Nina to Nino seems to be crappy anyway...I cannot recall one which was not the last 30 years
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The GFS actually seeing snow at this range is pretty crazy. It usually torches the BL, even with a Herculean upper level low. Someone will get plastered but my hunch is you are not gonna see snow down south of I20 in the end
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I think you're right as far as snows somewhere but I think it lifts far enough north that ATL is all rain...the 12Z GFS/RGEM did go a bit north now with the ULL...its really only the Euro with that insanely closed far south track
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It caved and did not cave...it was stronger with the ULL but was probably unrealistic taking the track further north...if you're gonna have a Euro like ULL the system is gonna track pretty far south at least until it gets to about SC
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It probably would be too late...but I do think the SSW aside March has potential. I have been saying for weeks and still say those hoping for the snow record in NYC and even some other spots into SNE are gonna get March 92'd or March 98'd...I have my doubts NYC even finishes in the top 10...its only gonna take one decent event to take them out of the top 5
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Unless the NAM is right they are not seeing anything, the RGEM has the same ULL track and its all rain and I think this thing trends north. I have told them don't be worried as of now in the metro there...this is typically a major snow event for them barring a north trend but this time with no cold air its not.
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The GEFS IMO the last 6 weeks has been a bit too strong with the SER in the D10-15 time period...it probably has still overall been winning the war on the idea but I think for sure the less happy EPS/GEPS (most of the time anyway) on the SER idea have been better since December
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Correct...09-10 was by a whisker weak enough it did not torch but most of those snow events in 09-10 the air was barely cold enough...it was quite close to being a 97-98 repeat but things were just weak enough the pattern did not get overwhelmed
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The Euro is probably closer to reality than the GFS...but the CMC/Icon idea of basically a miss or weak follow up wave is more likely. The GFS failing to pull the entire baroclinic zone east and still taking a storm inland is probably not realistic at all
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You'd think with the first system going through and the general screaming progression to the pattern that the Euro/CMC/Icon idea of the next low being east is likely more accurate than the GFS taking it inland, that said the wildly amped up Euro idea is probably wrong. The CMC/Icon of a nothing system is more likely
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Late February will be rocking. February Long range Discussion thread
SnowGoose69 replied to Ji's topic in Mid Atlantic
Developing El Nino summers are typically crappy in the east. Usually increased TSTM activity which can be interesting but generally below normal. -
The problem I have pointed out to many though hoping for the shutout or breaking of the NYC record in our subforum though is that due to inevitable wavelength change and the fact the storm track has been active its unlikely we don't end up with 1-2 events that may even push us over double digits in the end. I'd feel more confident if we were parched like we were in 01-02 or 11-12 but there is too much activity to likely get 8 more weeks of misses
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Not really, Jan 85 was similar to the Dec 80/83/94 as far as the air mass came down from the Lakes and we had massive CAA from the W-NW...but their air mass was just WAY colder. I think 850s were -31C over NYC whereas 94 it was -28C I think
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I love how the GEFS/GFS again is exhibiting the Op/ensemble discrepancy beyond D10 we have seen seemingly all winter long and the ensemble has always ended up correct. The last day or so now the Op is a full blown December 2015 SER 2/14 onward while the ensemble is trending better....meanwhile in stretches where we were gonna torch the ensemble was a torch and the Op was showing January 94. Not sure why that has been happening.
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If you want a chance for snow you'll take that anomaly map in February or March every time...December definitely not unless you're across the interior but that is once again nowhere near a shutout setup
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It depends what the overall pattern is...generally if you've got an overall NA setup favorable for snow on the EC the GFS bias of showing the low in Bermuda at D4-8 works...when you do not its less reliable
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They downslope pretty good on a WNW flow so they can be 2 degrees warmer than LGA even a strong CAA setup. Even on 1/27/94 which was maybe about the best setup for JFK, snow pack and a 010-020 wind they only got to 2
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Most of the times when LGA/NYC go below 0 the setup is not one where LI will because often its a strong W-NW gradient and while those stations go -1 or -2 LI will be like 0-3
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This may be the first time I recall FOK going below 0 with any gradient....in the arctic outbreaks since 94 I do not recall a case where on a windy night they got under 1 or 2
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The cases in 88 where ISP did it were calm nights...they used to be sort of like FOK/HWV but to less of an extent...once we got into the 90s though I think increased development in areas near them to the east likely cause somewhat of a UHI and even in 94 and 96 setups where in the 80s they may have went below 0 they no longer did
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ISP has not gone below 0 now since 1988...I believe a big reason is urbanization around the airport thereafter....we had many airmasses since where they would regularly go below 0 before that but do not anymore
