SnowGoose69

Not sure I’ve seen a signal that strong to go into 8 since like 2014

The last 3 days of GEFS/GEPS today look like a better version of the 12/1-12/7 pattern with the ridge not as far to the east out west.

One thing is for sure, all ensembles today finally show a pattern beyond D12 that resembles the first 7 days of December more or less, albeit slightly better as ridge isn't displaced as far east. The question is does it even last til 1/15 before everything pulls back to a La Nina type pattern. I think the La Nina being nearly non existent helps somewhat

The problem is this is really our closest thing to a neutral ENSO following a Nino in 40 years outside of 92-93 and 03-04 and I'd almost label those warm neutral. You have to go back to 80-81 I think to see the closest thing to this year of cold neutral following a Nino so I am not sure if Jan/Feb progress as we'd expect

Not extremely cold, most of the cold was to the north in Canada as the pattern was zonal. The low was 19. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1981/us0213.php

We narrowly missed a monster in 1991. It was on all the "long range" models at the time which I believe were the UKMET/MRF/Euro and maybe all went to 120 or 144, the Euro was barely known to exist to most back then although it was out 2-3 years already. You can see here why the models were seeing something but the air mass was probably going to be an issue anyway. Al Roker and Nick Gregory were mentioning it a few days out here in NYC. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1991/us1223.php

Its been trying that all month but it just has been staying weak. I think there's a better chance its a non factor than the strong wave the GEFS suggests

GEFS has been too strong in recent weeks and having to correct weaker with the MJO consistently

The WAR is not really a presence this year as much, at least so far, so we may not see the so often west bump we've seen with every system the last few winters unless that changes.

BOS metro and south will probably still go into the 50s from 7-9pm or so. Its quite the gradient now from as close as Norwood on S-SW. BOS still not over 12kts but that should change by 430-5 at the latest but it probably cuts off sharply north of there. Could see BOS gust to 50kts but BVY/BED not come close to that

FRG gusted to 43kts. JFK just 35-38kt so far so definite indication strongest winds likely remain just E of Queens/Bklyn. If FRG is 43 that means coastal areas are probably close to 50kts already

Thankfully looks like maybe a 30-40 mile shift east in strongest 850-925 winds form yesterday. I think maybe SRN Queens/BKlyn could gust 40-45 for a time 19-21Z but the concern of 50-60 there or even things going to 22-23z looks out now. Nassau/Suffolk still a problem

The Op runs have been exceptionally wild lately but the GEFS/GEPS/EPS the last 2 weeks have mostly handled the pattern well, they've been a bit too fast with the changes as is often the case but they showed the cool down, moderation, brief cool down followed by the moderation and then likely shift again. They just have been about 3 days too fast on everything beyond D8-10 which is expected.

That was the most insane gradient I ever saw. Closest comparisons were 1/23/98 and 1/7/94 where in the first case NYC/N Queens had a massive ice storm and were 28-30 while the central and S parts of the borough and LI had rain. 1/7/94 some of the very far northern parts of LI like Lloyd Neck had 8 inches of snow while the south shore was entirely ZR with some sleet at times

GFS BUFKIT does not really mix winds down, even at JFK but I'm always suspect, even in winter on SSE flow about that

I still think in the end the month probably averages above normal, down in the southern MA/SE/TN Valley though a few places could see their first below December since 2010 since the period from 12/8-12/10 and 12/15-22 won't be as relatively torchy vs normal there as it will be here and in SNE, I think a few might have been below in 2020 in 2017 but a few sites averaged barely above those 2.

The last several cycles you see that D14-16 the GEPS/GEFS try to start moving the trof back into the Aleutians and building the ridge but the amount of members doing it is mixed so the signal is blunted on the mean. For the first time the EPS showed it last night at D15-16 you see subtle building of the ridge over BC and Yukon. As often happens the whole thing is probably delayed. Now we see a chance for a storm at 190 hours whereas 3-4 days ago 260 hours looked like a totally broken down pattern, we might see the warmup range around 12/14-12/22 and the final week of the month looks more like now

As I believe one of the Mets said here yesterday we don't want it anyway. It can sometimes mess with what may be a favorable setup by sending the PV to the wrong side of the globe. I believe in 20-21 or 21-22 that happened and it did in Jan/Feb 2012 too, we were about to see a favorable shift with a -EPO forming over AK and then the massive SSW sent the PV to Europe. Also near the solar max with this QBO phase SSWs are rare. One did happen though in Feb/March 1989 despite similarly bad background states so they can sometimes occur near the solar max but I think they more frequently happen later in winter vs earlier.

I think city west it could. East probably no as the SW flow has enough component off the water to warm the BL, the 3K NAM shows that well with snow in western queens but once you get east of there its rain. Looks like most areas will be sitting around 38/26-28 or so at the time so its close. We also are depending on that little area of energy generating that area of precip

Basically the last panel on the 12z ICON at 180 is what you want to see....drag the boundary far enough so that anything riding up on it after is snow. the 06Z GFS at 186 is simply too far west so the ensuing wave is rain.

Once we flip back to a +PDO it'll likely be less of a problem since you'd tend to have a +PNA more often

It may have something to do with the crazy Atlantic SSTs which is why we keep seeing those -NAOs with SE ridges

The 12z EPS was not as wildly bad as the 00Z was. I find it funny the EPS/GEFS basically switched places the last 2-3 days beyond day 10

We were trying to figure out in the MA forum last winter why that seems to happen all the time now whereas 20-30 years ago it never did

Yeah it did seem that way. I recall a couple during the day but they always seemed to come in like 3-4pm. It might be like the Gulf or SE coast hurricanes always hit the US at night though, when you check the stats many did hit during the day but we don't remember them.