SnowGoose69

I think you’re looking at 11am-2pm for most of it to fall. There is extensive coverage much further west than modeled but the rates in those bands right now aren’t very good. Over time as we see the area pivot south I think most accumulation is very late morning into afternoon

The 12/24 evening half inch or snow before the flip to rain was forecast well. But they had a WS watch out for 4pm and onward on 12/25 for a change back to snow but they dropped it at 9am on 12/25 when the ETA came in very mild and the Euro was very skeptical on it. The GFS was going wild with 6-10 inches of backend snows but NCEP was heavily discounting it and so the WFOs more or less did too. The AVN/MRF had been merged just 8 weeks prior so I think there was some concern about the reliability of what it was showing.

Inside this range go with the 3km NAM/Euro/RGEM...they're going to handle this better than the GFS.

The Euro is probably overdone on magnitude, but I could see a 1.6 or 1.7 peak still which is a tad too much for the East...you ideally want around 0.8-1.2 for the best winters in El Ninos.

My co-worker and I call that the pre AGW pattern. Would see that type of pattern all the time pre 2000s...especially pre 1990. Its become quite rare now. It always seems some sector of country is a torch and some sector is very cold when we are not wall to wall warm in winter.

Indications the QBO may be more E next winter, if that happens and the El Nino is over 1.5 may not be as good as we had been hoping. Might be glad in the future we did well this winter.

Since the 2014 disaster I think everyone just stays home now. I know the Dec 2017 storm which was a forecasting disaster it was close to another mess but temps stayed just a nose high enough the roads did not ice up before the evening.

Yeah that was a mess, it shows how far forecasting has come. Nearly no warning on the 2/25 event and the 3/15 I think it was storm they had a WSW out, dropped it, then at like 1am had to put it back out. 12/25/02 that happened too, the NWS is way more cautious these days about not doing that. Thats why they tend to go bigger on watches now and then just convert them to advisories if needed.

I'd go like 0.5-1.5 for ATL with a risk of up to 2.5-3 in worst case. But I think WSW criteria there is 2 if its all snow though I am not sure on that. I think though NE parts of Fulton county may see 2 so all you need is one report of that somewhere. I was surprised DeKalb was not in a warning to begin with.

I remember CHS airport closed for a week back in 2018. I could not believe there was no snow removal equipment within a reasonable driving distance. They just waited for it to melt

WSW in GA is being expanded SW shortly over ATL. I think it should have been a county back anyway. Decent chance of the threshold being met

Nothing. Warnings got put out at 3-4am and by 8-9am there was already a few inches

I think Athens is going to see 4 plus from this. I'd like to be a bit east of them to feel really good but I just think ratios with this will be solid.

I did my first one last year fully awake lol, they had to be convinced to even allow it. Most GIs do not anymore, not because its hard to do (in Europe and many other parts of world its standard practice due to medical costs) but nowadays because its becoming harder for US doctors to make money many have a policy of no colonoscopies without sedation because they get paid boatloads more money if its used. Same as many, if you have kids know that for orthodontists its way more lucrative to do wisdom teeth pulls with sedation than without. In our case it was 1200$ less without it

Yeah, I mean even places like Stone Mountain and Norcross could get like 3-4 from this with just a marginal west bump. The airport though or Marietta I think needs quite a bit of help to exceed 2.

I'd still not give up on this NYC east...I don't think NYC is getting 8 inches but would I be shocked if they got 3 and Montauk got 12? No. Most storms in 2026 at this range I'd feel good about not seeing major changes at this range but this setup to me has too many moving parts. I could even see places like SE VA/SE MASS having massive changes still....I'd not feel good in either of those places.

I still think about 2 is the best metro Atlanta or W sides of the metro can do. Will have to watch for a band of heavier snow on the NW edge of the precip shield with this...happens often in these setups and the only model that may see it is the NAM/RRFS in the final 24-30 hours.

LOL it has no storm at all.

Many notable events here https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F084&rundt=2026012812&map=thbCOOP72

Many notable events here.....more for the SE overall https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=SE&fhr=F084&rundt=2026012812&map=thbCOOP72

The UK/Euro it seemed for most of the 2018-2025 period would often go opposite directions of each other alot in the D4-7 range, but this winter there has been more a tendency for them to generally follow one another for sure

I would be surprised if ATL saw accumulating snow with this. The whole ridge/trof orientation to me does not favor it, you'd need this to drop south back across AL/WRN GA and bomb or begin the intensification process at 500 over SE GA or FL panhandle vs over SC or off the SC coast.

This would kind of be an epic fail by the GEFS though. I do feel most cases of the GFS dropping the ball on big storms the GEFS has tended to not really support iy most of the time.

The UKMET does not even look anything like the other models (minus the ICON) over GA/SC. That alone makes me want to toss it. I do think that the GFS/Euro/RGEM may be tossing way too much snow back too far west in GA/SC but the overall agreement there tells me ignore the UKMET further down the line

The UKMET does not even resemble the GFS/CMC/Euro over GA/SC really. Given thats only 84 or so hours out I'd tend to say toss it, the differences there to me are just pretty significant that it being the outlier in the deep south tells me its future ideas are off as well. I still would think the GEFS/GFS is probably too far west at this stage.