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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    But that doesn’t change the fact that this is a bad h5 set up for snow in nyc. Can it change back to more of a look we had a few days ago? Sure! But I wouldn’t bet on it.
  2. Allsnow
    To be fair the real pattern change doesn’t start until after the 20th. We are currently reshuffling the pac to a better look. If it were to snow Saturday it would be a bonus before the pac improves. The wheels of change are already in motion as tomorrow will be the last warm day for a while.
  3. Allsnow
    The pattern will improve after the 20th but the -epo/poleward pna has been waffling on the guidance.
  4. Allsnow
    Yep. We are loosing the -epo look and are left with +pna and split flow look. The reshuffle around the 25th could hurt temps around here. next week looks cold and dry
  5. Allsnow
    Yeah, Philadelphia is at less then a inch. It would be fitting for that to happen next week. The storm coming into the northwest is kicking the ridge East. It’s not a bad pattern for a southeast snowstorm lol. But I agree, we will have chance in this pattern. Eventually something will work for us down here.
  6. Allsnow
    Next Wednesday is definitely a good pattern for a southeast snowstorm. That would be fitting lol. Euro is very close for the southeast
  7. Allsnow
    Euro is more amped and north this run. Very little snow for the metro area and 1-3 north and west
  8. Allsnow
    Need to stop the amped trend or this will turn quickly into festive flakes then rain
  9. Allsnow
    The roundy plots have this going into p8 to start February then dying and convection starting in p2 (standing wave). As you posted p2 is a cold look for February. The rmm plots I think are picking up on the kelvin wave in p6. Which is why they are curling back earlier
  10. Allsnow
    I did. It’s posted above. My thoughts haven’t changed. 2-4 for I-95
  11. Allsnow
    This map is awful to use as it includes sleet. Not the event for a map like this
  12. Allsnow
  13. Allsnow
    From what I can see the reason you are still getting the loop on the rmm plots is a kelvin wave in p6. You can see it on the roundy plots. This is still going to go around the horn. That pink line is the kelvin wave in warm phases. But the real mjo is in p8 by feb 10th
  14. Allsnow
    18z eps even more amped with less snow along the coast. Let’s hope this levels out soon.
  15. Allsnow
    Yep. More amped this run. Snowfall 2-4 along the coast a bit more inland. Pretty much what everyone expects
  16. Allsnow
    Yep, weeklies are great looking until mid/end of February. Then the Niña pattern returns with ridge in the East. That makes sense imo with the mjo going around the horn. And I wouldn’t mind a warm start to March this year.
  17. Allsnow
    Yes, our snow is coming from the WAA precipitation. My reference to Chicago is that fact if they have precipitation problems that means the best WAA will be to the metros north. You can see that on the euro idv with a more amped up low. The WAA ends up moving more southwest to northeast. Perhaps why the eps mean has a tight gradient by the coast 00z euro had the low in central Indiana with no Ptype issues for Chicago and better waa fo us.
  18. Allsnow
    Yep and then some! Enjoy
  19. Allsnow
    @jbenedet here are two articles about lag response for each mjo phase.
  20. Allsnow
    The eps went towards the GEFS with the -epo ridging. That’s a real cold look
  21. Allsnow
    I think a lot depends on the wave break from the mid week storm for northern New England. Most of the guidance is really blowing that up so it helps with the confluence. The main player imo is the high pressure. That’s a real strong high moving in at 1044. The mjo response in p6 is more of southeast ridge. The euro was amped at 12z which raised hgts in the East. We have seen this throughout the winter season with the euro. It will be amped then slowly back away from it. It is currently the most amped up global from the 12z suite.
  22. Allsnow
    Some Mid Atlantic crush jobs on the idv eps with that closed low look. It’s definitely going to get active along the east coast. Eps has a potential costal the middle of next week and the following weekend. I like the the axis of the trough around the 25th.
  23. Allsnow
    The eps mean mirrors the op. 2-4/3-5 type event with a stronger primary.
  24. Allsnow
    The mean trough might be too Far East for us. FWIW the euro was a close miss.
  25. Allsnow
    That cold shot next week has strat support with the pv taking a right hook.
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