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Allsnow

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  1. Allsnow
    Great stuff. Did you read that tweet about the MVP index? From what I understand if it’s + it will prevent from having a typical p8 mjo response. I agree that we will most likely not see any help from the ao or nao this year.
  2. Allsnow
  3. Allsnow
    I think the city and immediate suburbs west of the river are good for 2 inches. I can see ewr getting 3-4
  4. Allsnow
    Yeah if the dateline ridge comes back that would also keep the epo form going -. The weeklies are nine chilling for the start of February so perhaps it is going to score a win. It was the first to see the Niña pattern for early January.
  5. Allsnow
    I’ll go 1-2 for the metro and 2-4 north and west. Long Island c-1. I think sw ct will do the best as in top end of the 2-4.
  6. Allsnow
    Great to see you post here. Yeah at the end of the eps the vortex looks to be setting up shop. The weeklies have this weakening and Being replaced with a ridge. It would be best to see this low sit in the Aleutians instead of moving into ak. I know the euro is looping back to p6 on the rmm plots. I wonder if this is the reason we are seeing such swings in the northern pacific. The AAM spike is also playing a role in pushing the ridge into central Canada. On the roundy plots you can see a kelvin wave in p6. Imo this is why the euro is looping back into p6. I think as we get closer to the end of January you will see it correct into p8. Looks like by mid February the mjo wave dies in 8 and rots in cod. Perhaps then climo nino will take over. The weeklies do look good to start February and have a -nao look to start March lol.
  7. Allsnow
    Yep. Let’s hope its misplaced and we keep it by the Aleutians. It could be because the euro is looping the mjo back to 6. Which imo is bogus but I honestly don’t know anymore. It is what it is at this point
  8. Allsnow
    Yep. That’s not a good look in the 11-15 day. The goa low would move into ak. Let’s hope that’s not correct. We have seen the 11-15 day just change.
  9. Allsnow
    Ripping pretty good here in this snow shower.
  10. Allsnow
    Those plots are picking up on a kelvin wave in p6. That’s why you’re getting the curl back then back to 8. By the start of February we will be in p8 then the wave looks to die. Will will probably be in cod after the 10th then climo nino takes over for February. You can now see the members curling back. Those maps are so predictable.
  11. Allsnow
    Yep. Bad patterns bring bad results.
  12. Allsnow
    Yeah I think the biggest issue is the fact the waa is going north of the metro. So we are left with a band of snow for those south of CT. Best forcing is well north of the area
  13. Allsnow
    Eps ticked snowier also. Mean close to 3 for nyc
  14. Allsnow
    18z euro ticked colder. 3-4 from the city west.
  15. Allsnow
    It’s okay Anthony. I’ll survive
  16. Allsnow
    Then a 95 blizzard on the 30th...obviously this will change but shows the potential
  17. Allsnow
    Happy Hour Gfs says congrats dca and ACY next weekend during the torch
  18. Allsnow
    18z Gfs
  19. Allsnow
    Yep. Historic cold in December 2017 to record snows in March 2018. On the flip side, record warmth in February 2018/2019 and now record warmth in January 2020. I would be fool to not say that the earth has warmed. But imo the extremes are most noticeable.
  20. Allsnow
    Yes. I made a comment in the discussion thread that the pond skating in 1907 had to be horrible.
  21. Allsnow
    100% agree. Perhaps in 50 years our winters will be more like North Carolina. imo are extremes have gotten more extreme as their seems to me no middle of the road anymore.
  22. Allsnow
    My comment was tongue in cheek. But some have posted as if this first half of January is the new normal and winters of yore are over. When you look at the stats most of those warm starts to January were in the early 1900s
  23. Allsnow
    I guess no pond skating back in 1932? Snoski and weatherpruf would have been jumping off their horses. just reading this thread you would think the warmest first half of This month has happen in the last decade.
  24. Allsnow
    Nice post! Yeah, you’re 100% correct about the +AAM. We just need that to relax a bit to pull the ridge back west. Great stuff @bluewave. I don’t have access to the AAM charts.
  25. Allsnow
    Ditto to @binbisso post. The flatter look out west allows for a colder tick. We also do better with the waa precipitation
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