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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    If I had to guess I think any change will be more towards mid February. Basically in line with @Isotherm thinking. Probably more of a pattern for sustained cold.
  2. Allsnow
    Yeah, I think this is the correct thinking. Latest roundy maps has the current wave croaking in 7/8. Then they start keying on a kelvin wave in p5. With lots of substance in p6, looks like it will head back towards cod then eventually a wave forms in p1/2. As for the weeklies, we need to get that look inside day 7 for me to believe it. If the AAM relaxes then perhaps typical February nino takes over.
  3. Allsnow
    I agree. Until I see it inside day 7 color me skeptical as well. It takes the cold pool from Ak and moves it into the conus.
  4. Allsnow
    It had a big hand in Why the models went away from the cold stormy look in the long range. Look back a bit for @bluewave posts. He had some great information on it.
  5. Allsnow
    FWIW the weeklies Flip the Pattern by February 8th. Huge -epo/+pna with some higher hgts near Greenland. It’s basically the end of the eps rolled forward off my previous post. It keeps that look into March. Is this correct? Idk. I think the kelvin wave will weaken in p5 as the mjo heads towards cod. As for the strat looks like activity picks up there towards mid month.
  6. Allsnow
    @bluewave
  7. Allsnow
    Just not in sink. I see improvements on the 11-15 day eps but that’s la la land. It wants to kick the ridge to Greenland and higher hgts move into Ak. Something to monitor as we get closer. It will take time to flush this pac air out. By day 15 on the eps we are still above avg with those changes.
  8. Allsnow
    Well at least we are done with the cutters now that we have Hudson Bay ridging lol
  9. Allsnow
    Which have been documented well that it’s been too cold in that 11-15 day range. Perhaps some hints of change by Feb 5th but that could be rushing it.
  10. Allsnow
  11. Allsnow
    Starting to see some hints of the lower hgts moving out of Ak at the end of the eps/GEFS. I’m sure this will not be a quick process and can kicking might occur.
  12. Allsnow
    Yep. The pac is the only reason we are not getting a full on torch. Shades of 97-98 with a ideal storm track but a putrid airmass.
  13. Allsnow
    That’s incorrect. The gfs way to snowy and wet for the area. The nam did the best on thermals.
  14. Allsnow
    Similar to the cmc. Snow is restricted to NNE.
  15. Allsnow
    That would not change the fact that we have a onshore flow with a bad airmass. This is rain regardless for the coast. Northern Pa and Upstate ny have the best shot.
  16. Allsnow
    Perfect low track for the metro area and 100% rain. Shades of 97-98.
  17. Allsnow
    Like it snowed yesterday in a bad pattern with a arctic high.
  18. Allsnow
    Mjo still looks to get into 7/8 to start February then the kelvin wave gets stronger in p5. Lots of substance in p6 so would not be shocked if that wave collapsed into cod
  19. Allsnow
    Outside winters like 95-96/13-14 not many. That’s why we avg what we avg here for snow. I don’t follow why I need to survey people from DCA about winter 09-10? All I’m saying is that was Nino climo helped by a uber block in February and December.
  20. Allsnow
    If proving your point means the next two weeks look meh for snow and canonical nino is warm north/cold south, then sure. Obviously, those last two posts from you were trying to twist my words. Let’s not forget about the uber blocking in 09-10 in a otherwise warmer then normal winter. December 09 and January 10 were above Avg with little snow outside December 20 09.
  21. Allsnow
  22. Allsnow
    For the next two weeks it fits the h5 pattern well. A moderating northern tier with a active progressive stj. Just because it doesn’t show what you want doesn’t make it wrong. Yes, in that moderate 09-10 nino it was bitterly cold up north.
  23. Allsnow
    Yep, about on par for a normal high in areas north of nyc.
  24. Allsnow
    Yep. @bluewave made a terrific post about the +AAM and ridge by Hawaii. This played a big part in the colder pattern going poof. As you have said recently you can’t have biases in weather. If the pattern looked cold and snowy we both would be posting about it.
  25. Allsnow
    No matter the strength of nino the result is warmer northern tier with cooler south. With the vortex in AK it’s even worst. Just loop the 18z gfs it illustrates the up coming pattern very well.
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