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Allsnow

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  1. Allsnow
    I think the set up and airmass favor areas of the interior/sne. Could nyc thread the needle and get it to work? It’s possible but I would bet against it. I think it’s obvious the set up is bad when even the models that show hits are not snow for Nyc.
  2. Allsnow
    I believe interior sne is around avg or a bit above. The point is in marginal set ups they will often have more wiggle room. Take the December storm for example. That was a marginal airmass with white rain in the city. Sne and Albany got crushed. The point of the post wasn’t to compare who is having a worst winter. It was to show how in marginal set ups they often have more room for error.
  3. Allsnow
    Yes, I was referring to the costal plain. We have spots to the north and west of the metro that probably Avg more then Boston. But those same locations fail in comparison to a place like Orh. The point of the post is their longitude and climo is more conducive for snow in a marginal set up. I believe currently Boston has 17 inches to nyc 2.8?
  4. Allsnow
    The threat isn’t over for them because of there latitude and climo. They can get away with way more imperfections in a set up then we can. This is why they avg way more snow then us.
  5. Allsnow
    The 12z euro is OTS as the pna ridge gets beaten down by the wave train/vortex.
  6. Allsnow
  7. Allsnow
    The main forcing is currently in 8 but we still have convection in 6. The +AAM and Pv orientation has negative effects on the response from p8. We will be in 2/3 to start February. With some strat hits we should get into a better airmass by the 5th.
  8. Allsnow
    Yes. Legit arctic airmass with lots of activity
  9. Allsnow
    Exactly. Not impossible but long list of negatives that argue against it.
  10. Allsnow
    I agree. As I mentioned a week ago, that timeframe holds the most promise.
  11. Allsnow
    It slows the storm down and allows it to bomb out. Unfortunately, it does little for the airmass concerns. You would need a perfect ULL track/close off to allow dynamics to overcome bl issues.
  12. Allsnow
    990 low in a perfect spot on the Ukmet and this is the result. Putrid airmass
  13. Allsnow
    Looks to be all southern stream. I would think temps are warm for the coast.
  14. Allsnow
    Great post. It’s not impossible but with no northern stream you’re relying strictly on dynamics to get it done.
  15. Allsnow
    The icon is making this all southern stream with no northern stream involvement. This helps in really warming temps along the coast despite a decent track.
  16. Allsnow
    Pna a lot sharper on the 12z gfs. But trough is still positively tilted.
  17. Allsnow
    Latest Mjo roundy plots have this going p1-p2-p3 (all cold for February) Then 4-5-6 for mid month. Depending on the amplitude in the warm phases will determine strength of southeast ridge and storm track.
  18. Allsnow
    Yes! We just witnessed a ULL trend 200 miles north at this time last week for the Saturday rain event.
  19. Allsnow
    Everything continues to look good the first week of February. We probably will get a cutter/cold front around the 3-4 before the cold spreads East. That timeframe between the 5th-8th continues to look conducive for something.
  20. Allsnow
    Yep. Need it’s dynamics to overcome the meh airmass/high sliding East. Lots stacked against this for the coast. But it’s not impossible. Great post.
  21. Allsnow
    You want to see improvements out west with the ridge. (Not impossible 5 days out) This will allow the northern stream to dive in further south. The ukmet was a southeast mass hit and the flow is too progressive.
  22. Allsnow
    We had a completely different h5 set up for Boxing Day lol. Just because it trended west does not automatically make it comparable. The issue is the progressive nature of the flow { wave spacing and vortex} all killing the sharpness of the ridge.
  23. Allsnow
    Euro continuing its attack on the strat. Now is very close to a split at day 10
  24. Allsnow
    The ukmet is now on pivotal weather with all the maps.
  25. Allsnow
    61.9 inches of it verified at Central Park
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