Jump to content

Allsnow

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    23,657

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    Yeah, but now the system for next weekend is in a perfect spot with a weaker cutter. In this pattern you don’t want it perfect 160 hours out. Last nights euro with a stronger cutter the following system went south of us.
  2. Allsnow
    We probably want this system as jacked up as possible so the following wave next Saturday goes under us. At best this is some sleet/ice to rain for the area. Don’t buy into the ggem/Ukmet silliness.
  3. Allsnow
    I tend to agree. I think this is just one of those winters where it won’t snow. My hopes aren’t high for March either. The gfs is going to continue to give false hope with it’s medium range cold and snow bias.
  4. Allsnow
    I think so.....Eric fisher had a interesting tweet about years with a AO this positive the warmth continued into March. I don’t see much help from the mjo after the 15th. The roundy plots keep convection in the warm phases and it collapses there. We would need other help if we want a cold March. I just don’t see help from the Pv or any other area to think that currently. This is a mild/snowless winter from end to end
  5. Allsnow
    It will come down to the pac and epo location. The models are currently backing away from the -pna. So now temperatures are closer to normal with the -epo. The boundary will be close so good luck getting a idea on what’s going to happen this far out.
  6. Allsnow
    I did lol
  7. Allsnow
    February snowfall Knyc 1.2
  8. Allsnow
    On the bright side next winter can’t be any worse lol.
  9. Allsnow
  10. Allsnow
    Yep. H5 set up has completely changed from what it was a few days ago. The trough is further west and the transient blocking is gone. Perhaps we can get something along the boundary closer to the middle of the month.
  11. Allsnow
    My storm is on life support. Sorry bud.
  12. Allsnow
    Our best shot for snow this month is if we can get the boundary south of us for a day. Just thinking back to typical Niña/nada February’s it worked in 2008/2012. Just a typical overrunning event that dumps 2-4/3-5 and by the next day it’s back to 40’s rain.
  13. Allsnow
    I agree 100%. Enso states, analogs, snow cover, and NPAC warm pools are becoming less informative on the coming winter. It’s really all about the Pv and mjo. Stuff that is very hard to predict from months in advance.
  14. Allsnow
    Yeah. With the Mjo going into p4-5-6 I think the response could be pretty warm in mid February.
  15. Allsnow
    Oh well.
  16. Allsnow
    They really have not bought into any type of cold/snowy pattern. They did a good job in sniffing out the dateline ridge in January and rna pattern for February.
  17. Allsnow
    Weeklies basically saying it’s over! We are above normal until mid March. I would welcome a early spring. Yes, we can still snow but any deep winter pattern is definitely trashed.
  18. Allsnow
    We can only hope.....
  19. Allsnow
    Eps snow mean is putrid! Good times lol
  20. Allsnow
    Okay okay.....2/15 is when the pattern flips
  21. Allsnow
    Yeah, any type of distribution now would only effect late March into April. Once the Pv coupled with the atmosphere is was over. We haven’t had any type of hits in the strat to disrupt it. In 13/14 we had a strong Pv but it was in a better position with lots of strat activity. Going forward the most important factors for winter IMO are the PV and MJO.
  22. Allsnow
    The PV gaining strength and being poorly positioned was the death sentence at the end of December. The Vortex made a late home in Ak for a big chunk of this winter
  23. Allsnow
    Just need to wait and see how things look at the end of next week. As @CoastalWx said yesterday in the medium range, ensembles will smooth things out. So you won’t see how bad the flaws will be. (Ex: Se ridge -epo position) The GEFS wants to position the pv better after the 15th . Which might allow for better cold shots in the east. Then hopefully some help from the mjo as it gets into p6/7. For a -nao chance we need the TPV out of Greenland.
  24. Allsnow
    Yep. It seems like the euro is the first to correct back to +epo in the medium range.
  25. Allsnow
    Yep. Originally the 5th-8th was supposed to be cold. Now it’s just another round of a meh airmass that we hope is cold enough. Now we kick the can to after the 9th with the epo. For whatever reason we continue to kick the can in that area.
×
×
  • Create New...