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Allsnow

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Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
  2. Allsnow
    The main forcing is currently in 8 but we still have convection in 6. The +AAM and Pv orientation has negative effects on the response from p8. We will be in 2/3 to start February. With some strat hits we should get into a better airmass by the 5th.
  3. Allsnow
    Yes. Legit arctic airmass with lots of activity
  4. Allsnow
    Exactly. Not impossible but long list of negatives that argue against it.
  5. Allsnow
    I agree. As I mentioned a week ago, that timeframe holds the most promise.
  6. Allsnow
    It slows the storm down and allows it to bomb out. Unfortunately, it does little for the airmass concerns. You would need a perfect ULL track/close off to allow dynamics to overcome bl issues.
  7. Allsnow
    990 low in a perfect spot on the Ukmet and this is the result. Putrid airmass
  8. Allsnow
    Looks to be all southern stream. I would think temps are warm for the coast.
  9. Allsnow
    Great post. It’s not impossible but with no northern stream you’re relying strictly on dynamics to get it done.
  10. Allsnow
    The icon is making this all southern stream with no northern stream involvement. This helps in really warming temps along the coast despite a decent track.
  11. Allsnow
    Pna a lot sharper on the 12z gfs. But trough is still positively tilted.
  12. Allsnow
    Latest Mjo roundy plots have this going p1-p2-p3 (all cold for February) Then 4-5-6 for mid month. Depending on the amplitude in the warm phases will determine strength of southeast ridge and storm track.
  13. Allsnow
    Yes! We just witnessed a ULL trend 200 miles north at this time last week for the Saturday rain event.
  14. Allsnow
    Everything continues to look good the first week of February. We probably will get a cutter/cold front around the 3-4 before the cold spreads East. That timeframe between the 5th-8th continues to look conducive for something.
  15. Allsnow
    Yep. Need it’s dynamics to overcome the meh airmass/high sliding East. Lots stacked against this for the coast. But it’s not impossible. Great post.
  16. Allsnow
    You want to see improvements out west with the ridge. (Not impossible 5 days out) This will allow the northern stream to dive in further south. The ukmet was a southeast mass hit and the flow is too progressive.
  17. Allsnow
    We had a completely different h5 set up for Boxing Day lol. Just because it trended west does not automatically make it comparable. The issue is the progressive nature of the flow { wave spacing and vortex} all killing the sharpness of the ridge.
  18. Allsnow
    Euro continuing its attack on the strat. Now is very close to a split at day 10
  19. Allsnow
    The ukmet is now on pivotal weather with all the maps.
  20. Allsnow
    61.9 inches of it verified at Central Park
  21. Allsnow
    Huh?
  22. Allsnow
    High slides east and lakes low warms the bl. 18z Gfs
  23. Allsnow
    It’s been warm! What a awful month for winter weather
  24. Allsnow
    Lots of spread in low placement, yes. But that doesn’t change the laundry list of problems that argue against snow for the metro area.
  25. Allsnow
    These are the 2m anomaly along with the idv that show either a interior snow hit or late phase. If you go off the low location more then a few show a perfect track for the coast. So why doesn’t it show more hits? Imo it’s the airmass with a high sliding off the coast/lakes low/ and late phases with northern stream. We have a long list of things that point against snow for the coast. And even with some of the models that show hits it’s not 100% snow or we are depending on dynamics to overcome temps.
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