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Allsnow

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  1. Allsnow
    Next weekend the pac is still reshuffling which is going to allow for another cutter. If we can place a nice high pressure beforehand we can get a front end thump. ( euro and gfs show this)It’s after the 18th that the pattern really improves. I wouldn’t rip and read the long range op gfs as it is going to look completely diff at 18z. I agree, you can’t have biases when it comes to weather. If the pattern going forward looked unfavorable I would be the first one the tell you.
  2. Allsnow
    Those same plots had it looping back into cod after p4 a week ago. I wouldn’t bank a forecast on those long range rmm plots. Even as is, that plot shows some members going around the horn. Either way good luck with your forecast.
  3. Allsnow
    6am Sunday! Crazy
  4. Allsnow
    Mjo progression, the warm waters by the dateline, and the amplitude of the mjo wave. I also have support from the eps,GEFS, and Geps. Other then ripping and reading the rmm plots, what hard evidence do you have?
  5. Allsnow
    And I get it, most of you won’t be convinced a colder/potentially snowier pattern is coming until your under a winter storm warning with a defo over head. I see no reason why a colder pattern won’t take over at the end of January into the first half of February. I would more then welcome a early start to spring if the mjo returns to the warm phases after a few snowstorms. until then, enjoy the record warmth! Tomorrow is going to be beautiful
  6. Allsnow
    Looks like we will spend most of the first half of February in the colder phases. Paul roundy site has us in p2 around mid February. After that it will depend on any Strat help or other factors. The euro has a bias on going cod at the end of those rmm plots. This will not be going cod p4/5.
  7. Allsnow
    This is what I am talking about when I post overrunning. You have the first cutter acting as a transient 50/50, a cold high 1032, and moisture overrunning the cold air. This is definitely the first legit threat for our area next weekend.
  8. Allsnow
    The 17/18 threat has always had that overrunning look to it. The storm will cut west as the pac is still reshuffling, we just need to have a cold High pressure in front of it.
  9. Allsnow
    We need the cold to have a chance. The air-masses we have had so far has been putrid. I’ll gladly take that cold again and roll the dice. Obviously,I would prefer snow but 2-3 inches of sleet was cool to experience
  10. Allsnow
    Euro now into p7 on the rmm plots.
  11. Allsnow
    Great call with the wave 6 amplitude. What was the reason for this?
  12. Allsnow
    Depends on where the boundary sets up. But yes, like we been seeing all winter, we would have very wet systems with cold air near by.
  13. Allsnow
    @bluewave looks like the stronger wave will help amplitude in p7 now also. As you said a few days ago, p8 by the start of February. You can also see the building substance in the warm phases which is nice to see. Substance is sinking air which won’t allow for convection development.
  14. Allsnow
    Some really nice looks on the ensembles for the end of January. I still like the 17-19th for a swfe/overrunning storm. Before that we get the torch effects of p5/6.
  15. Allsnow
    Light rain lol this winter
  16. Allsnow
    I always thought it was the RMM plots with the bias, thanks for the information. Nice call on the stronger wave in p6. Looks like we might slow down a bit in that phase and get to 7 by the end of the month.
  17. Allsnow
    You can see the RMM plots are starting to correct towards the colder phases. They have a bias cod in the long range typically.
  18. Allsnow
    I like the looks of the pattern for some type of over running event after the 17th. The cold will be just to our north with a active storm track.
  19. Allsnow
    4.5 here so far and none of it has stuck to the pavement. I have thrown out any hope of a good winter as we basically punted a month and half so far. I just hope to get to avg and have a solid 2nd half. Tropical forcing should get into the colder phases by the end of the month and the Pv should start taking some hits. Obviously is sne you guys have more room for error being further north.
  20. Allsnow
  21. Allsnow
  22. Allsnow
    18z eps snow mean.
  23. Allsnow
    The last minute trends this winter have been ridiculous
  24. Allsnow
    Snowfall this morning. Knyc 0.2 Lga 0.7 Jfk 0.3 Ewr 0.9
  25. Allsnow
    There can be a lag but it’s not 100% of the time. You won’t get high amplitude in the cold phases as it doesn’t work that way. But your colder period could very well be correct. It’s really all a guess at this point lol
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