Allsnow

You can see substance developing in the warm phases on the roundy plots. Let’s hope that’s the case after we get out of p6. But it’s in the long range and convection is unpredictable

It will probably get worst before it gets better. With no strat help we will be at the mercy of the mjo. It doesn’t look like this should linger in p5 (def a worry with the warm waters there) as the rmm plots have been correcting closer to the colder phases. Until then all we can do is enjoy the warmth coming. hopefully the roundy plots are correct with this mjo getting into p7-p8 by the 20th. If not winter weather/cold will be in big trouble for February.

Good post by @bluewave regarding the warm waters by Australia. I tend to think it might want to linger in P5 because the mjo is convection and loves warm waters. One of the reasons why we spent most of December in P2 was the warm waters creating a standing wave. I believe what happens with this mjo wave will hold the fate for what happens at the end of January into February. The roundy plots and vp maps have this entering p7 by the 20th. @tombo82685 stated to me that the jma keeps this in p5 to the start of January and the CFS gets it into p8. Definitely the reason for their differences regarding the rest of this winter.

Yep. I sat at 34 the entire time with poor snow growth. This is taking a similar track with a similar airmass.

Hope all is well @BxEngine! Happy New Year!

These Miller B’s tend to favor sne and Long Island. I would not be shocked to see little to nothing around the metro with 2-3 on the island.

The problem for the coast is the fact the airmass is marginal at best and the primary low is to strong. It would be nice to see the primary weaken earlier.

It’s convection, so I wouldn’t put much stock in a rmm plot that far out. Most mjo plots don’t go out that far. The roundy has it in p7 by the 20th.

Next weekend temps couple be well into the 60’s

Hopefully the mjo having amplitude in the warm phases can help trigger some hits on the PV.

Just wanted to make a quick post about the anomalous warmth heading our way in January. Some of the analogs are starting to point to January 2007 regarding the magnitude of the warmth. I believe the reasons we have this potential is because of the strong PV and lack of a true El Niño. The following maps are the response we get in p4 and p5 of the mjo in a neutral ENSO. The eps and GEFS are in perfect sink with these responses. I can see temps in the urban corridor be well into the 60’s with this look. The storm track will be well west of our area into the Great Lakes. Going Forward I see very little change towards the end of January. I believe if we want to save February we need to start seeing strat hits on the Pv and the mjo wave, currently in p4, make it into the colder phases. If we continue to see the wave weaken into cod we very well might have a clunker winter on our hands.

I would use caution with ripping and reading those rmm plots. @tombo82685 The GEFS forecast is complete garbage on that plot. Convection dosent go backwards like that. If you look at the vp200 maps you can see a standing wave over Australia. The rmm plots are focusing too much on the lead wave and then jump to the actual mjo wave over Australia. This will be in p8 between the 8th and 10th. The hot take this winter has become the awful rmm plots that chase convection everywhere. Stick with the vp200 maps or the euro forecast.

All is well Ginx, thank you. I think we are definitely on track for a nice 2nd half of winter. Typical niño climo warm 1st half, cold second half. The wildcard will be a possible SSW. I agree, the Nyc metro wx team definitely has some great talent.

All is well! I wish you a happy and healthy new year.

Stop using a op model that is awful outside 7 days. It couldn’t be any different from it’s own ensembles.

I’m not sure where I’m trolling about warmth @Snow88. I’m getting tired of shoveling all of this potential you have been posting about, as we stare in the barrel of another cutter. @CoastalWx I could not agree with you more regarding the next few weeks. The Kelvin wave slowed the mjo progression in p5. Unfortunately, convection is very hard to forecast. I would be careful about posting the RMM plots, the vp200 maps are more accurate imo. Either way you slice it, we should be in p6 by the end of the week. The pna should improve after the 4th, and the majority of the guidance agrees with this. @40/70 Benchmarkoutstanding seasonal outlook! We should have a killer 2nd half of winter. @ORH_wxman I know we have not been on the same page the last few years. I can’t say I didn’t give you reason to feel the way you feel. My apologies for the immaturity I showed. I don’t come to this forum anymore, but my best to sne for 2019. We should be tracking soon. A few more week and this downtime will be a distant nightmare.

Land of the misfit toys

Still pretty cloudy here and not the best of days

He is a great canidate for 5 ppd...I wish they would do it already

We have a politics section so this keeps the "politics" out of the NYC forum

In glad you see the benefit of it and I would love to read your input on things. Unfortunately we have votes from posters that have found others homes or have a total post count of 100 that are being counted....imo they shouldn't count

Yes they are just knocking down the doors to get back

It's was a perfect storm of events Tombo was overruled on punishment with a poster, Adam wanted more science into the board and less weenies/ctblizz posters, then HM got ran out of the sne thread and nothing was done because they thought he was taking away there snow. The new board obviously lacks the amount of posts but the medium range discussion and info is amazing. I'm bias because I'm friends with Tom, but I also like this board and enjoy posting here. Unfortunately with two new boards forming one Philly centric and the other NYC it has hurt both forums on this board. Again I don't get why philly is so against a merge,its not like you guys are having all this great discussion. It's the same 4 people giving obs, if that's what you want to protect then more power to you. I think it should just be done already to help both forums create more discussion.