Jump to content

Allsnow

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    23,602

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Allsnow

  1. Allsnow
    Yep. We very well could swing and Miss. let’s hope for better luck this time. Last January we missed a storm to our south that crushed DCA.
  2. Allsnow
    Why would you be looking at the gfs that far out? It will change at 00z. You use the ensembles at that range. If it makes you feel better the euro has a costal snowstorm in that timeframe
  3. Allsnow
    Great to see both of you here! Hope all is well
  4. Allsnow
    I have provided proof with the roundy plots which you fail to acknowledge. I also have the ensembles all agreeing on a pattern change. Those plots you posted are off the GEFS and only going out to jan 16. So if the pattern is supposed to flip after the 20th what do they prove?
  5. Allsnow
    All we can say is the pattern looks to improve after the 20th. I get it, you can’t shovel potential! We very could score a nice storm or continue the bad luck. For us to get a storm we need a better pattern so we have that.
  6. Allsnow
    I’m not sure how many time it needs to be said that the rmm plots have a bias for cod at the end. Yet, he continues to rip and read them while they correct in front of him. This will be going 7-8-1-2. Yes, it will probably be muted in the colder phases as it’s not going to have strong amplitude like the warm phases. Even if that plot was to be correct, it would be bias cold because the mjo wave is closer to the cold phases.
  7. Allsnow
    We don’t need some uber -nao to trigger all the cold dry folks
  8. Allsnow
    My thoughts are it will be transient in nature but that’s all we really need to capitalize on something. The Scandinavian ridge is really a nice precursor to a -nao.
  9. Allsnow
    I didn’t think we would be this clear a few days ago. It’s really off to the races at this point. Out and about around town It feels like a April day.
  10. Allsnow
    Do you think this change is all from the mjo? My guess is yes, I don’t see why else would be changing the pac like this. Up to 62 here now! Models did a great job with the warmth.
  11. Allsnow
    Nice call @Isotherm! Looks like the Pv will start taking shots at the end of the month
  12. Allsnow
    Hard not to excited about this look on the GEFS and eps for after the 20th. +pna/-nao/ and trough axis over Chicago. Enjoy the warmth! Things are about to change
  13. Allsnow
    Torching here under clear sky’s. Pushing 60 already here. Get out and enjoy it!
  14. Allsnow
  15. Allsnow
  16. Allsnow
    The pattern change is all a result from the mjo. We won’t see help from the nao probably not until February if at all. The Ao will be around neutral at the end of the month. This is all from the +pna and -epo The eps had some transient blocking at the end of the month.
  17. Allsnow
    The pattern gets better after the 20th. We have a chance at a snow to rain type event next weekend. After that it looks stormy with cold around. But yes, if you’re looking for a classic snowstorm it will be after the 20th. Incredible agreement right now with all the ensembles on a +pna and -epo look.
  18. Allsnow
    Winners and losers in every storm. We haven’t had it bad in middlesex county since 2009. I’ll gladly take 4-8 over getting skunked completely
  19. Allsnow
    Yep. The ridge off the west coast should keep things active and the cold/dry debbies at bay.
  20. Allsnow
    Yes, but I believe that was a bit east of the classic benchmark track. Our last east coast blizzard from DCA to Bos was back in 2016.
  21. Allsnow
    It’s been a rough winter for the models. The euro and nam seem to be too amped in the short range.
  22. Allsnow
    KU/benchmark tracks don’t grow on trees. We have been extremely lucky since 2009. Many on the coast have become spoiled With the amount of snow that have had. It’s no shock that we have regressed to the mean. The last area wide snowstorm was definitely 2016. We are obviously over due now.
  23. Allsnow
    Yeah, but that first March 2018 storm took a perfect track and still skunked the coast. We had some nice track last winter but no cold air around. With the pac improving I wouldn’t be shocked to see the track you are looking for. But to not expect mixing issues along the coast in any storm is unrealistic expectations. Edit: not implying you have unrealistic expectations
  24. Allsnow
    It’s probably been since 2016 since we have had that. Even with a perfect track, people on the coast should expect P-Type issues. How many storms can you recall that it’s snowing at High Point And Acy?
  25. Allsnow
×
×
  • Create New...