Allsnow

It’s convection, so I wouldn’t put much stock in a rmm plot that far out. Most mjo plots don’t go out that far. The roundy has it in p7 by the 20th.

Next weekend temps couple be well into the 60’s

Hopefully the mjo having amplitude in the warm phases can help trigger some hits on the PV.

Just wanted to make a quick post about the anomalous warmth heading our way in January. Some of the analogs are starting to point to January 2007 regarding the magnitude of the warmth. I believe the reasons we have this potential is because of the strong PV and lack of a true El Niño. The following maps are the response we get in p4 and p5 of the mjo in a neutral ENSO. The eps and GEFS are in perfect sink with these responses. I can see temps in the urban corridor be well into the 60’s with this look. The storm track will be well west of our area into the Great Lakes. Going Forward I see very little change towards the end of January. I believe if we want to save February we need to start seeing strat hits on the Pv and the mjo wave, currently in p4, make it into the colder phases. If we continue to see the wave weaken into cod we very well might have a clunker winter on our hands.

I would use caution with ripping and reading those rmm plots. @tombo82685 The GEFS forecast is complete garbage on that plot. Convection dosent go backwards like that. If you look at the vp200 maps you can see a standing wave over Australia. The rmm plots are focusing too much on the lead wave and then jump to the actual mjo wave over Australia. This will be in p8 between the 8th and 10th. The hot take this winter has become the awful rmm plots that chase convection everywhere. Stick with the vp200 maps or the euro forecast.

All is well Ginx, thank you. I think we are definitely on track for a nice 2nd half of winter. Typical niño climo warm 1st half, cold second half. The wildcard will be a possible SSW. I agree, the Nyc metro wx team definitely has some great talent.

All is well! I wish you a happy and healthy new year.

Stop using a op model that is awful outside 7 days. It couldn’t be any different from it’s own ensembles.

I’m not sure where I’m trolling about warmth @Snow88. I’m getting tired of shoveling all of this potential you have been posting about, as we stare in the barrel of another cutter. @CoastalWx I could not agree with you more regarding the next few weeks. The Kelvin wave slowed the mjo progression in p5. Unfortunately, convection is very hard to forecast. I would be careful about posting the RMM plots, the vp200 maps are more accurate imo. Either way you slice it, we should be in p6 by the end of the week. The pna should improve after the 4th, and the majority of the guidance agrees with this. @40/70 Benchmarkoutstanding seasonal outlook! We should have a killer 2nd half of winter. @ORH_wxman I know we have not been on the same page the last few years. I can’t say I didn’t give you reason to feel the way you feel. My apologies for the immaturity I showed. I don’t come to this forum anymore, but my best to sne for 2019. We should be tracking soon. A few more week and this downtime will be a distant nightmare.

Land of the misfit toys

Still pretty cloudy here and not the best of days

He is a great canidate for 5 ppd...I wish they would do it already

We have a politics section so this keeps the "politics" out of the NYC forum

In glad you see the benefit of it and I would love to read your input on things. Unfortunately we have votes from posters that have found others homes or have a total post count of 100 that are being counted....imo they shouldn't count

Yes they are just knocking down the doors to get back

It's was a perfect storm of events Tombo was overruled on punishment with a poster, Adam wanted more science into the board and less weenies/ctblizz posters, then HM got ran out of the sne thread and nothing was done because they thought he was taking away there snow. The new board obviously lacks the amount of posts but the medium range discussion and info is amazing. I'm bias because I'm friends with Tom, but I also like this board and enjoy posting here. Unfortunately with two new boards forming one Philly centric and the other NYC it has hurt both forums on this board. Again I don't get why philly is so against a merge,its not like you guys are having all this great discussion. It's the same 4 people giving obs, if that's what you want to protect then more power to you. I think it should just be done already to help both forums create more discussion.

No offense but isn't this your first weather side post in 2 years? No being subjective here, but it's seems you found a home elsewhere and wouldn't really be affected by a change

You guys complain about lack of posts so they offer a option and the reaction is like its the worst thing in the world. Philly and NY have been together before and it was working until a few posters got greedy. Most of the main suspects have left to others boards or have been banned. We have a solid mod team now that actually does there job and wants to work to make the board better. Will there be bumps and stuff to be iron out absolutely, that's with any merger. A man once said you can achieve your greatest accomplishments when you step outside your comfort zone....

Ralph those days are long gone and the few that where leading the charge have gone and left. I feel it would be great for both forums to drum up some more discussion.

wow thats awsome.....that had to give the back a workout....... I just like makin big piles with my toys....the tail end of boxing day...sorry if ot.

lol....Yeah thats a text book picture on how it should be done......also great job by you and the residents of that street.

Love the pictures you just posted. Seems like the city of Boston does a great job of snow removal, also the towns outside of the city. That last pictures is great, all the snow shoveled to the left or right of the driveways, and not just thrown back into the street. Plus you went the extra mile and clean out the fire hydrant......