wdrag
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Everything posted by wdrag
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A little early to be sure if its over, but we're looking better with two more precip events between now and November 29. Will add maps of snowfall (CoCoRaHs) and 3 day rainfall at 10AM and then next Tuesday I think the drought monitor updates... definitely has to show improvement. First 10 days of December will tend to be colder and drier than normal, blustery chill... but I suspect that one or two precip events will more clearly emerge as the days advance toward December...at least trying to keep the current months (Nov-Dec) closer to normal.
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I try to incorporate all views, media (they tend to be slow to respond-that's their editors imo and they seem more concerned about a general story) and also herein. I heard some discouraging comments way back about this event... one of them the NW flow downslope killing it. Don't think it worked. Dynamics and steep moist lapse rates within a deep anomalous closed low aloft overcame the perceived downslope effect. The other about OKX and nothing within 35 mi of NYC. I as a forecaster tend to be a little more liberal permitting options that others are more conservative on--- NWS has to be tight one message and COLLABORATIVE conservative so as not to juice the media-us. Therefore they might run a slower, whereas we can dynamically respond faster...not tied to collaboration, and of course we're not official. I prefer less absolutes on this forum... too much we don't really know. Modeling as I used it.. in essence the 12K NAM was not very good... it's 3K descendent much better as well as the HRRR and then the three big globals (GFS/EC/GGEM). NBM was not very good--- sorry---it just wasn't, nor the statistical probs of 1" snow etc... those need to be upgraded for elevations. The probabilistic (P-WSSI) driven by model inputs was OK... but not sterling in nw NJ se NYS extreme sw CT. I will still use this again and again, especially long range since its new to me. This could be the way it is all winter (elevation dependent marginal thermal profiles), especially per Don below. Don said EC long range has us a warmer or very much warmer than normal winter, plus his NAO Sept stats guide us the same way. So I suppose these next 3 weeks through Dec 14 will be our winter and we need to enjoy it. My caveat... stats are good but are made of sample differences. This winter might not behave according to the stats. I noticed the EC Long range tends to have a little 5H Troughing here in the ne USA this winter---cutting into the warm anomalies. IMO, not all is lost after Dec 14... timing-timing-timing. Also we need to realize that modeling beyond two weeks is limited and can be vastly in error. You can step up and tell me you kinda knew in advance of the 13 week drought idea, or this current cooler wintry pattern .., all more than 3 weeks in advance. Modeling will improve considerably beyond 3 weeks to help us better plan (market products etc). I just hope some of this is of value to our group.
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Power outages juSt in Sussex County NJ...shows relationship to high terrain where probably 4-8" of wet snow has accumulated on trees. I am expecting another 6" high terrain by 7PM tonight for totals 12-15" above 1200 feet elevation..., massive problem for power high terrain. valleys under 700 feet, probably less than 3-4" with mostly wet roads. EC was too mixed in its precip forecast... HRRR was excellent as well as NAM 3K from yesterday onward. Wantage NJ at 440A, this southern part at 740' MSL 0.9"
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Wow... 8.5"!! beautiful Vernon high terrain. me---this southern part of Wantage at about 740' MSL - 215AM 0.7", less slimy slush on untreated pavement. snowing steadily 33F. Last winter we didn't have our first 1/2" till the big 1 foot snow storm of Jan 6-7, 2024.
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Morris County NJ.. several reports of snow or snow mixed w rain.
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Mt Pocono 1N report of 1.3" on the ground at 7P per PHI FB and their posted storm report.
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Saw a PHI FB report from near 1500' vicinity High Point NJ..snowing there.
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Already at 530PM 1" of wet snow on the ground... and a little less on driveway at Mt Cobb, Exit 8 on I84. about 2000' elevation (Jefferson Township PA). Models are too slow in the higher elevations for snow depth CHANGE, which is what I use as a base. HRRR 3K NAM look good but am a little cautious because 12z EC nwas ot as robust as I'd like to see.---too much mixed snow sleet rain overnight in nw NJ. Temp here in Wantage at 537PM down to 37.4.
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El Patron. Good Mexican food. They should accumulate
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Been modeled by many models for two days. We’ll see what happens. Elevations good for sccum, sleet could rob 1-3” of potential snow accumulation
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Sleet rain snow mix over to accumulative snow overnight. Haven’t seen 12Z ec positive snow depth change. Have to think slippery and plow able even down to 800’. Heading home from work now. Should be getting slippery in Poconos now above 1800 feet. Nice backside band developing in radar e central pa western nj. Should be our sleet snow changer thus evening
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about .76 here in this part of Wanrage at 6A. 41.5F r/s mix in parts of e PA high terrain, Poconos west. We should in nw NJ high terrain start accumulating around 7-8P, and 1-3" high terrain by midnight... IF NOT, then my faith in modeling r/s boundaries is degraded. 06Z EC and 09z HRRR continue. am still looking for 1" Newton and 4-6" by sunrise Friday Highland Lakes/HP high terrain stretches n SC. Colder air seeping in... has to be some slippery untreated roads tonight. Will be more difficult to accum on roads tomorrow at 32F but grass/trees should add more at time of heavier rates.
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Last 3 hours max wind gusts with the lines of showers and thunderstorms moving east through NYS/PA/VA. KDKK: Dunkirk, Chautauqua County, NY, United States [55kt, 28m/s] KPIT: Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh Intl Arpt, PA, United States [50kt, 26m/s] KROA: Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA, United States [51kt, 26m/s]
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I dont have much urge to start a thread for heavy rains most of our NYC subforum, then ends as a rain/drzl/barely noticeable wet snow mix. Could be more gusty than anticipated Th-Fri and I see some modeling is spotty 50-60 MPH just of LI to Cape May-Delmarva. Isolated 3-4" melted qpf tristate corner of pa/nys/nj. Still concerned about upper low redeveloping s of LI which might mean a little more action than modeled for Fri night. 12z/20 HREF looks a little cold. A n-s axis just east of AVP might be heavy damage. 12z/20 attached WSSI-P is the probability, in this case for MAJOR damage. This n/s axis has been cyclically repeating as the area to monitor for big wet snowfall and imo, heavy damage-power outages. Gusts to 30-35 MPH expected parts of that areas as well. Caution: It's where I monitor but the prob for major is below 40%. WSSI-P is something new for me this year so can't assign confidence regarding its value added. and now with the attachment WSSI-P.
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Holding off tiI.I get back home at 5PM and reevaluate... that will give modeling time to calm down. Power imo is a big problem ton consider ne PA/maybe nw NJ. No action for me... most of NYC forum a rain storm gusty winds 35-45 MPH (iso G 50) with tail end wet snow mix.
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The heavy qpf and wet snow is primarily Pocs and Cats, into nw NJ. Not really the bulk of the NYC metro. That's why I've held off. So---I dont want to over focus NYC metro on what will be mainly a rain event. An extreme storm was occurring overnight near Washington State. I tend to find extremes occur close to each other. Remember the Oxford Flood of Aug 18, then the 11 week drought Sept-now, and now multi modeling is offering spot 4" 48 hr qpf nw NJ/Pocs/Cats Tri state corner. From one extreme to another.
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Do we want a thread for this storm. It will snow in NYC but probably no accumulation or less than 1/2" Friday night. This storm is focusing quite a damaging punch for the Poconos/Catskills and extreme nw NJ where spotty 4" rains are possible and certainly think 2" can occur NYC by 7AM Saturday. Your call.
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Anyway, maybe my first time noticing but Pivotal now has 6 hr ECMWF op forecasts and all parameters out to 360 hours since the 12z cycle yesterday. (12z/12). Maybe I'm late to notice.
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Looking interesting for TC Cuba-Fl northeastward about the 20th... 00z/11 GEFS solid D9 signal.... GEPS a little bit, and EPS again lagging.
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Not convinced EPS will be correct... think we in the states would like a recurve per the preponderance of track guidance... even if it shears... we can use the rain VA northward. Also, intensity guidance seems to hang up above 35 kt. Uncertainty of course, but I am monitoring future course of the decaying Rafael for the Gulf coast. At least GEFS/GFS was correct Oct 20-24 for TC development, advancing the idea of a storm down there, though 3 days too fast on the process and may have been wrong on a US mainland landfall though am not convinced we're done.
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Caribbean storm coming into better focus and may have an impact here (rain or squally rain?) around Nov 11-12? A large percentage of autumn rain here I think tropical related. Looks like we'll get something here with very minor tropical RH contribution Sunday night.
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Checking back I saw isolated Trace nw NJ, s CT for this supposed 0% event... which verifies 0 percent officially but I Think a 5 or 10% would have been a better indicator. of the daily risk changes. I just saw a forecast on NY TV for 0% chance of rain through Friday? Decision making must have omitted the RGEM/NAM. It's murky light rain/drizzle tomorrow night or Tuesday morning, but to say 0%?Chec
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SW Caribbean is 80% prob now in 7 day, 40% in 2. N central Atlc is 50% per 8PM TWO.
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Thank you for posting your numbers. We'll check in on finals this April 2025. Hopefully there is a bit of winter. 11/1/24 537A EDT.
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2PM TWO 10/31/24
