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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Am hopeful that upon further review, that the event produced at least low end of the ranges. I see it's still moderate snow at times along and north of I80 PA NJ and much of nw LI. I would think this is a high impact storm there and I suspect will be a top 20 event in the ne snow storms when all is said and done. We'll try to detail that more around 11A.
  2. wdrag
    That is helpful Don. I appreciate your checking. Later, Walt
  3. wdrag
    ALY can answer, but my understanding, similar to many offices... can't find and train a reliable observer within the requirements of NWS CLI to be representative of previous POU observer location. Something like that. Takes time, effort, conscientiousness, paying attention to detail and maybe we don't pay enough. NWS has other resources including CoCoRAHS, CO-OP observers, NOHRSC, etc.
  4. wdrag
    Thanks! I agree w you. My guess is that there will eventually be some sort of normalization of this snowfall data, as NHC with prior history etc etc.
  5. wdrag
    Jackpot areas so far: 25-28" reports very near BGM (3 reports 25 or more), and multiple 20's IPT. Here's a look at reports that posted thru 350AM. Power outage problem did materialize as I anticipated. That is good news. Have not looked at guidance since 930PM last night.
  6. wdrag
    Be thankful for whatever we get. I forgot... NWS doesn't have snow climo anymore for POU, MPO. So I guess we won't know for sure on amounts per NWS CLI. Just have to regionalize average the nearby CoCORAHS etc values. BDR daily RER snowfall 6.5", ABE 9.2, PHL 6.3 - the latter PA values not daily RER's.
  7. wdrag
    CP: I did not check, will try in an hour but if someone has the answer. The 6.5 " in CP in one day is largest since??? Thanks.
  8. wdrag
    Concerned about CLI DB. Someone please correct me. I see the excellent midnight CP 6.5" yet, the CLI does not show this as a record. XMACIS does. Why the difference between XMACIS Daily Almanac and the OKX CLI (5.3 vs 7.0). Thank you very much in advance. Almanac for New York-Central Park Area, NY (ThreadEx) December 16, 2020 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 43 63 in 1971 19 in 1886 Min Temperature M 32 48 in 1971 7 in 1876 Avg Temperature M 37.2 55.5 in 1971 14.5 in 1917 Precipitation M 0.12 2.25 in 1974 0.00 in 2017 Snowfall M 0.2 5.3 in 1948 0.0 in 2019 Snow Depth M - 10 in 1960 0 in 2019 HDD (base 65) M 28 50 in 1917 9 in 1971 CDD (base 65) M 0 0 in 2019 0 in 2019
  9. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s High Point 315AM report 9.6 total (4.3 since the 845PM report). SD 9. Densely packed small flake snowfall, wind driven. 20.*F and rising a bit
  10. wdrag
    Hopefully enough snow for most to be satisfied... will check back around 4A.
  11. wdrag
    Sandy Hook in minor flood right now, with a surge of 2.2 ft and ne wind gusting 42 kt. Hit 50 kt at Seaside a little bit ago. NJ still only 13,000 meters out.
  12. wdrag
    Will get a Co CoRAHS map going tomorrow morning around 9A. In the meantime, a quick sampling of what's been reported to the NWS or there had time to post.
  13. wdrag
    My guess is a minimum additional 2" of snow-sleet CP from this point to 9AM Thursday. Could be as much as 4 or 5. Use your best judgement.
  14. wdrag
    I need to look at this, including T sections,. Should have confidence on NYC leftovers... even if they don't record 8" NYC or southern LI and Monmouth County coast have big icing problems ahead, when the temp crashes to 25F in a 30-60 minute period with possible wind shift from NE to N around 5 or 6AM.
  15. wdrag
    NJ power outages now going up. 10,000 meters. Small but coming up. definitely a bad news for people who need heat.
  16. wdrag
    This is going to be realll interesting if sleet pounds the MJO 6". Will be curious as to their midnight CLI total.
  17. wdrag
    Just catching up: you probably all saw the CP 2.6" at 7P. Half way to a daily RER.
  18. wdrag
    HRRR modeled very well...
  19. wdrag
    Ditto Wantage.. just saw your report. We are very close so far. My next report 4am ish
  20. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 8 s of High Point NJ. Here we're at 740'MSL 845 PM 5.3" Blowing and drifting. small to moderately sized flakes, densely filling the air. 18F Next report around 4am I hope. Cleaned my deck and large spot in the driveway to remeasure at 4A. Took at least a dozen measurements to come up with this answer. On-line til ~10P.
  21. wdrag
    snow-sleet amounts so far. 715PM ish report
  22. wdrag
    Dont like the HRRR... it's verifying. sleet seems to be advantageous ing northward fast in se PA. Amounts we see on the ranges...my guess is the low end of those are the more likely. I hope I dont hear ticking before 11PM here in extreme nw NJ.
  23. wdrag
    Baseline on power outages at 6P. Let's see where this goes. Numerous 40-45kt gusts NJ coast now. Sea Girt in Monmouth county is the rough break point between 40F NJ coast and 32 just north. Wow!
  24. wdrag
    Just to answer a question that originated 2 hrs ago: Sounding can be 0 or below but if the saturated layer doesn't have any -8C above 2 or 3000 feet, ,hard to get snow in that sounding. In other words, we need ice nuclei or salt nuclei. Usually -8C is the theoretical warmest limit to produce snow via ice nuclei. Here's some depressing guidance for NYC... I hope the probabilistic is too low for 6,12,18. Also add probabilistic chance for .01 freezing rain. The 12z/ 16 HPC HREF you will like but my guess it's 3" too high in NJ/LI...just my guess. That last HPC HREF graphic is for 7P tonight to 7P tomorrow...has no snow prior to 7P. This is it for me for a bunch of hours.
  25. wdrag
    Wantage Nj 0.d6" small flake possibly ly 3/4 mi snow... 18.9F might be my last ob for quite a while.
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