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Will update thoughts on the multiple threads by 8A, and post CoCoRAHS maps around 930A and start a new OBS topic for 3A-6P Tuesday (messy LI-i78 south). Nothing for me past the 18th. My initial thinking by the time Valentines Evening is done...minimum 2" new NYC and go up from there inside of I95. Uncertainty-Reasonings will follow in the threads with nothing bombastic coming but just annoying (for some) multiple additional snowfalls.

Duo has a pair. MKC has to limit penalties. This game could be different. Anyway, Brady and Gronk are pro's. We'll see what happens. An injury could be crucial.

Yes... will not be surprised at widespread 10-20" with isolated 35 BUT... we'll need all 4-5 events (9, 11, 14, 16-17) and ~80% snow. Do think we're on our way to at least a top 10 February for NYC snowfall. Already #16 as of 4PM.

This post only to show by color coding the axis of 6+ snowfall just inside of I95 PHL to BOS (yellow-orange). I'll be posting CoCoRaHS summary maps tomorrow.

Wantage NJ this part 1.6" YTD 47.4 Snow blowed it out to the sun can unfreeze the melt tomorrow. Monitor fire hydrants and roofs where more than foot accumulated. Back tomorrow. Tough to bet against Brady and Gronk but maybe youth and speed prevails?

Still snowing nicely here in Sussex County - Wantage NJ at 217P. Just 1.5" up to about 145P.

Arghhhh And it's not over. Melting and rain e LI helped lower there. I go by NWS prediction which the past two 4AM mornings have 8 out there and of course modeling interp. Could still get 6-8" out there but probably not more than just inside I95.

NYC looks like 19th snowiest Feb on record so far, climbing. Two months tied so my interp of the ranking (at 18.4") thru 1P.

Snapshot so far of snowfall reports to the NWS that are published, as of about 1255P. Looks like a band of 5-9" just nw of I95 and 3-4 in NYC so far.

We're going to miss that bigger stuff as modeled tho NAM a little robust out here... but snow intensifying now in Wantage. Back down to 3/4 or 1 mi. I know, dont whine Walt... am not. It's pretty no matter where you are. Very much so.

859AM/14: The GGEM/RGEM are going to win this Monday battle of no precip vs freezing precip occurring. The 06z EC and lesser so GFS, are capitulating to a two part event beginning Monday morning. The 06Z EC gets this going pretty fast before dawn Monday. I'll get the OBS thread going around 9PM tonight... and to keep it simple, will combine both the front end Monday morning with the primary Monday afternoon-Tuesday morning event. Problems for us will be developing. Added NWS 09z/14 ensembles for .10 glaze and .25" glaze (threshold to begin power outages, the grow much larger when 0.50 glaze ) and added the 5AM view of NWS snowfall expected by Tuesday evening. 513 AM/14 placeholder- will fully update by 915A today. It's Valentines Day. Hope all is going well. Rain LI for this event- some of it heavy. Topic headline changed a bit to further add some detail. Otherwise, Certainly an Advisory event coming inside of I-95 Monday-Tuesday morning. There is a low probability of Watch-Warning verification ne PA/nwNJ/se NYS and N CT part of the forum for ice but questionalbe we can get to 1/2" damaging ice qualifying for a warning. I suspect there will be some damage and power outages if the furnace (borrowed from others on the forum) RGEM continues this cold but possibly below warning criteria. The GFS is warm tho its 06z version looks slightly colder. The GFSV16 is colder than it's soon outgoing GFS op and it holds to the 0.2-0.4" FRAM ice accretion for the event, which begins sometime Monday and ends midday Tuesday. I still don't have a good feel for Monday but modeling is trending to agree with prior versions(from at least back to 00z/13) of the GGEM/RGEM that our untreated surfaces problems begin Monday during the day, especially afternoon. Need more time to assess. My feeling is the leftover advisory from this morning complicated multiple confusing headlines for the NWS and the idea, take one event at a time. More later with graphics. -- 745AM Saturday the 13th update: Good Saturday morning everyone - Feb 13. Adjusted topic headline slightly to include potential for an ice storm across the high terrain, and timing, tho w uncertainty. This will more easily allow an eventual OBS thread bridge back to Monday afternoon, if needed that early. The GGEM/RGEM for Monday: I dont have an answer. Some modeling yes, others NO. Something to watch. Right now am advising friends its okay to travel midday Monday along I84 due to milder temps near freezing but this 00z-06z/13 GGEM/RGEM is a concern. Late Monday the 15th-Tue the 16th: a significant advisable-warnable extensive ice event coming to the I84 corridor where it may transition to snow. This is mostly ice and I foresee-expect extensive delays Tuesday morning, and some cancels. Unsure whether this is mostly sleet or combined sleet-freezing rain. Might even have a bit of snow with this, just north of I84 where I could see several inches in this mix. Just too much uncertainty for me to know. For NYC-I95 so problematic am not going to attempt to detail... it varies by the modeling and cycle but looks like a transition to rain LI and NJ coast for sure on the 16th. BUT... stay tuned if wind stays mostly NNE. What I think I'm seeing is the GGEM-G=RGEM drift colder early this coming week. All yours... will be back around 5P to this thread. Added one NWS 09z/13 NWS ensemble graphic: the risk of icing Monday, especially at night. This tells me a problem is coming. ---- 854AM Friday the 12th: Have no changes to the Thursday 11th updated post. Added the WPC overnight prob for 3"+ of snow which favors north of Li and lots of zr/ip/r for LI and the NJ coast. 830AM Thursday the 11th: Have not added ice storm for the 18th and extended the thread into the 19th, but will probably do that tomorrow morning the 12th after 1 more day of cycles. I think ice storm warning is a possibility for the 18th-19th in parts of the higher terrain I84 corridor but far too early to highlight, since it's also possible that the modeling is too warm-allowing for more sleet/snow - future modeling to determine. Right now it's complex with predominant ice (ice to rain LI) but may end as snow everywhere? So far no sign of a closed low slowing things any further so have to go with what we see. NAEFS turns interestingly cold in the 1000-500MBthickness to wrap this event up on the 19th. Late 15-early 17... i like a colder solution than generally modeled tho not necessarily buying into the 06z GFS op. I think NYC will see some snow acc but ice could eventually get involved NJ/LI. Modeling is pretty cold at the surface. This will be a moderate event. Advisory event or possibly even a warning event for some of the subforum. Added NWS overnight prob of 3+" of snow Tuesday the 16th..favoring I84. Also the 06z/11 GEFS with the blue line the op run and the black the mean. You see ther spread in membership. Includes qpf, 850T, 2meter T and snowfall. I'd play the snowfall low key right now, so much spread mainly due to ptype. Definitely warmer on the 18th-19th. ---- 255 PM Wednesday (10th update): No overall change. Think the 14th is probably all snow or just a touch of rain extreme southeast? By 6PM Valentines night, I think the Feb totals in NYC will have increased 1.5-4" from this mornings 19.9 value...to place the Feb NYC ranking near #11. No guarantees but I think the Valentines (late 13th-14th) event is mostly snow and generally light. I still like 1-4" as a basic starting point. Did see the GFS trying to split NYC with nothing, but relying a little more on the GGEM and ensembles for this assessment. Tuesday the 16th: I know there is potential for ice all the way up to I84... but the front end thump of snow should be decent and I could see this event remaining all snow far nw NJ to nw CT and 6+ continues to be what I'm thinking, at least along and north of I84. Axis of heaviest snow ice is debatable as is northward ice encroachment but overall this looks to be a fairly cold event. Thursday the 18th into early 19th: Challenging... at first glance looks warm, but if you look at the GEFS and some previous operational runs, one can envision a closed 500MB low developing in TN/MO/ARK and then from there??? slower, so that we have a somewhat colder subdued event the 18th and may have to wait for a big qpf event til late 19th or 20th (outside this thread), instead of as progressive as now generally modeled. One question i would have... would that closed low be able to translate newd the eastern Great Lakes or... across the Mid Atlantic? Lots of speculation on my part, and maybe it just comes out bodily as now implied (18-19)? Just bringing up the complexities I can see. No matter, more ice/snow/rain...take your pick and for now I would have to favor rain LI/coastal NJ or brief snow-ice to rain there while, interior?? maybe lots of ice? ------- 808A Wednesday (10th) update: No overall change. This is the thread that dove tails with the 11th-13th thread. The 13th event, however it evolves will probably end up with a decent amount of snow on the morning of the 14th and so am continuing the widespread 1-4" idea (even LI-NAEFS rather cold there). Modeling has trended a little colder (blocking) but not necessarily a big coastal, but some WAA snow. 16th: looking more significant than the 14th. I think it's still cold enough for a front end thump of snow. Ice/rain may eventually get involved NJ/LI but where all snow, seems like a decent chance of 6+, probably I84 corridor, but even LI has a chance of at least a light snowfall prior to a phase change. 18th: may be the biggest qpf event of all 3 with a more southerly track of the trough and a GMEX scoop of RH (18th-early 19th?)BUT, that one seems somewhat warmer... so more problematic for maintaining entire wintry elements, but possible. The good news: IFFFFF this one is pretty big and more of a southern streamer, there is a "chance" it will re-energize the block near 50-50 for subsequent events after the 21st. ?????? Cross that bridge after the joy of tracking too many small-moderate events that offer snow/ice to the forum. A lot to track and maintain an unwavering perspective of what may happen (minimizing big changes to thinking as the models sort it all out). Added the WPC ensemble chance of 3"+ of snow for the 16th. Small chance we'll be #10 ranked Feb snowfall in NYC CP by the end of the 16th. Depends on amounts 11th, 14 leading up the 16th. 547A Tuesday the 9th: Complex and seems to be trending a little warmer so that LI and s of I78 are problematic on much snowfall, with snow/ice mostly nw of I95. Could even have events change briefly to rain over the interior of the subforum. How they evolve...uncertainty. I still think something on Valentines Day and then 1 or two events 16th-18th. Ensembles favor mostly the 16th-18th and give the subforum snowfall especially nw NJ but the trend on amounts is somewhat less. Am cautious since some of the blocking may be relaxing. CFS is comparatively warm and wet and that's bothersome but am unsure how accurate CFS is. For now considering it another member and have to mention this option. All could turn out a little snowier close to NYC but for now, that is not a lock. 815A Monday the 8th: I think we're going to have to see some snow here on Valentines Day I see the warm GFS but for now think its too warm). Amounts uncertain but its pretty clear to me that WAA and short wave coming into the area, then shoots off to the northeast own the 15th, but leaves behind maybe?? the coldest of the season here on Monday morning the 15th. Either wind chill near 15 below I84 corridor or widespread temps down to zero or colder I84 corridor (not that cold urban centers). Tue-Thu 16th-18th: more snow and ice coming I80 region northward. Model uncertainty is large. I'm thinking colder with the precarious balancing of southeastern USA warmth trying to heave northward at times against the generally blocked colder pattern across the northern USA. Rain could be invoked with this. --- Initial post from 2/7 midday. Have included rain in the tags, because we're close to having rain ,at times, within the overall cold enough pattern for snow and Ice, mainly along and northwest of I95. QPF this 5 day period should be in the range of a general 0.5" minimum, to possibly a maximum ~1.5". How much falls as snow, ice, rain is unknown and debatable. Multiple ensembles offer plenty of snow in and to the west and north of our subforum. Favorable blocking for northeast snowfall appears to remain through this period, and well beyond. Am witnessing via modeling and reality, a balancing of the cold core from southwest Canada to the northern Plains and Great Lakes shooting off pieces into the northeast USA, then on into the north Atlantic. These reestablish-reinforce the blocking -NAO from northern Canada to Greenland, and, following each pulse of CAA that moves through our subforum, there is WAA ahead of the next short wave. So far, the cold core has not broken off in total, to change the pattern and so, the snow opportunities continue on and on. February is already off to a special start and we may be heading for a top 10 snowiest February (see attached February Central Park ranking and year). Will narrow the goal posts on these possibilities for this 5 day period as we draw closer. My most confident period of something significant-substantial is the 16th-17th, but I have to consider some of the modeling that likes Valentines Day for an event and also the 16th-17th, delayed a day til the 18th.

Wantage NJ SB 811A, in earnest 845A and 0.3" 10A. Treated roads wet becoming slushy on sides. 24.8/19.8

Climate experts - Don, Bluewave et al, How to handle this? Could be moot by the 17th? Who knows the final amounts in CP today... let me speculate on NYC forecast 6" per their 4AM forecast. 6" would bring the 7 day total to 21.4 That would be 34th in this list.... However, I think this misses the monthly events truth... I'd rank 13th? How would you handle... ? Thanks, Walt Dec 1947 29.2 Jan 2016 27.9 Feb 2006 26.9 Jan 1948 26.8 Jan 2011 24.2 Jan 1996 22.9 Feb 1899 22.5 Feb 1994 21.8 Jan 1935 21.7 Jan 1873 21.5 Dec 1872 21.5 Feb 1983 21.5 GUESS today 21.4

Wantage SB 811, in earnest 845... Tracę now and 26/16. treated roads wet.

Flurries began in Wantage at 811A. 26/10

Threads continue through the 13th, and probably adding something for the 16th-17th centered later today. This seems a bit unusual to have so many wintry events in a 2-3 week period but am enjoying. Snow pack should continue here through at least the 17th.

716A/7 No change to this thread. Think this is reasonable. NYC might get a little wet snow accumulation from this but still on the margins. Will look at this much more closely Monday morning. Overall...a minor event except for where a few vehicles slide off the road along the I84 corridor or folks slip and fall stepping outside in that area, even down into the suburbs immediately west and north of NYC. Sometimes most of the accidents are in these small events. Therefore, even though a minor climo event for the wintry weather elements, it's still significant for those who are directly impacted.

Mping has snow having started north of Trenton NJ in our subforum.

Good morning, snow seems to be getting an hour or two late start, which is not good. Also temps a little warmer e of I95 NYC/LI and coastal NJ so possibly a bit of rain to start and or melting. Should have some nice snowfall rates late this morning early afternoon.

Leaving the forecast to the NWS and our forum. Please see attached NWS collaborated and SPC ensemble HREF snowfall. Other models a little less than this, so am a little concerned about melting initially NYC-LI coastal NJ (even rain to start for an hour or so); but it should snow hard for a few hours midday. Seems to have a slightly later start. There will be banding and snow ratios may end up near 12 to 1 nw of I95... and only 10 to 1 NYC east and south. 618A/7

Snow should begin near I-195 in central NJ between 4A-6A and spread rapidly northeast, with the heaviest bands of snow occurring between 10AM and 3PM in the forum. There should be some arced banding along I95 into LI and snow ratios may end up higher than 10 to 1. A short duration and according to the experimental Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI), be a moderate impact storm along the I95 corridor eastward across LI with minor impact nw NJ and ne PA.

Last from me on the there minor 2 hour morning snowfall nw of NYC on 2/5.

Yes .. thanks... going to be a tough 5-6 hour period ~10A-3P.

It ranks higher than the bottom 20 or so listed. It's definitely in XMACIS... all one day ~27.3 on the 23rd and 27.9 over 8 day period. 1

I agree 100% Need to think Feb 1-17 and max amount there. Also some science on snow loads if anyone has it.