wdrag

655A Saturday/27: Coming to the end of this thread... that may end with a noticeable bang. Definitely a significant rainfall (1/2"or more) Sunday into Monday morning with snowmelt but not enough for a problem. Dense fog possible Sunday night with mild moist air over chilly ground. Chance that rain ends as wet snow forenoon Monday I84 high terrain with minuscule impact. However, Monday evening from roughly 8P -4A Tuesday, flurries likely to near NYC with a band or two of snow squalls CT/NYS/ne PA and possibly extreme nw NJ that could coat roads with a hazardous 1/2-1" accumulation in an hours time, along with gusty northwest winds to near 45 MPH, a few minutes of reduced visibility under 1/2mile and icy roads due to temps plummeting from near freezing at 8PM to the teens by dawn Tuesday (20-22F NYC?) and wind chill near zero CT/NYS/PA. We'll see if the models back off but from what i can tell, the early GFS op (V15) has been onto this from many days ago, much more so than any other model. Bluewave detailed elsewhere in the March thread.

Waiting another 12-48 hours before a possible thread on March 6-7. Modeling potential exists for a large late winter coastal storm with snow inland and rain/snow coast. For now mostly Atlantic cod, but should continue to monitor.

Wantage NJ as of 6A. 1" here and still nsnowing and a report by High Point and Stockholm of 1" as well.

Wantage NJ 0.8" at 455A and still snowing with mping snowing to my south and still ice pellets near RDG. 32F. Roads wet.

Wantage NJ (this part) at 345A 0.7". Roads wet but all other surfaces covered. 32F. still snowing, small flakes.

517PM Friday: seems to be getting slightly more interesting for ice and snow distant nw-ne suburbs. First: GFS v15 looks like, (barring a complete fade within 4 days) the winner regarding the intensity of this cold shot Monday night. Second: Unclear to me whether it warms much above freezing high terrain near I84 Sunday and I can see smidge of ice there. Third: Chance of dense snow eating fog late Sunday? Fourth: Modeling from both the GFS V15 and 16 has started showing more minor snow shower/flurry action Monday, on the backside of Sundays rain (and dense fog by night?). And 18z/26 GFS modeling is moving flurries down to near LI sound later Monday night with the strong polar cold front that looks like it may have gusts near 45 MPH drilling sharply colder temps into NYC. Will revisit Sunday morning.

509PM: Possibly my last update for the evening. Other than the low levels being a little too warm, it's conceivable that snow will be seen to within about 10 miles of the NJT late tonight with minor (trace to 2") accumulations as previously discussed ne PA/nw NJ/se NYS and I84 northward in CT. No new obs thread for this for many reasons, including minor 1-4 hour wintry event, occurring during the night when many will be sleeping and many areas melting as it hits the ground.

Good morning, Thanks much for the above. Not threading anything yet for March 3-8. I see potential the 3rd-4th, 6th-8th. Both significant... all contributing two what the CFS is trying to sell us, an above normal qpf month... CFS has ~6" by the end of March. Probably overdone but we're in the active axis. How it all goes down? Don't know but some of this will be snow/ice interior, especially first week of March. I still think we need to pay attention to March 1. GEFS is sharpening west of our longitude March 1. Sopfar not much response in rain/snow after 15z March 1, but I like the 06z/26 recent trend. I want to see the V16 grab this in the next couple of 26th cycles and start moving to more qpf Monday and some snow I84 corridor. Something will have to happen for the v16. Right now, the GGEM is drifting to a GFS op solution, quite a strong CFP Monday night. Still has opportunity to soften but am thinking all these models still aren't latching onto the most probable solution. Wishcast or reality?

Friday 638AM update: Am still not convinced that this event will be insignificant but it's heading to a possibly wrongs-wasted thread. We do know it's going to rain and potentially pretty hard for a time on Sunday with precipitation lingering into Monday morning. Evolution has not yet permitted cold enough air to return, allowing for precip to change to snow Monday. Of concern to all who favor the GFSv16 implementation, is the still far different modeling between the V16 and the current operational V15. V15 in my opinion seems to have a pretty good chance of prevailing with it's polar cold frontal passage Monday night, flurries or snow showers possible down to NYC with plunging temps well down into the 20s in NYC (maybe ~22?). Meanwhile late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Uncertain but probably not a significant problem. Complex rain (spotty ice) possibly end as snow event. Any icy weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. Precipitation may end briefly as snow the rest of I84 corridor Monday morning March 1? So far, models say proceed with normal life with significant wintry weather unlikely.

Friday morning 625 AM update: 1201AM-10AM Saturday (27th). Not anticipating an obs thread since the percentage of members involved (seeing snow/sleet) looks to be rather small. Just tag it on here, whatever might occur. A 1-4 hour period of showery wet snow-sleet will probably occur across the I-84 corridor early Saturday inclusive of nw NJ, ne PA northeastward. There even could be spotty freezing rain? Minor-short duration impact, at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible in the Poconos. Elsewhere for the I84 corridor, inclusive of nw NJ, expect a Trace-3/4"; A quick change to rain occurs shortly after onset, except that change to rain in the Poconos and northwest hills of CT may not occur til ~ 10AM Saturday. Melting all surfaces once the change to rain has occurred. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping.

Good morning everyone, Feb 26: My expectations on two on-going threads. 1201AM-10AM Saturday (27th). Not anticipating an obs thread since the percentage of embers involved (seeing snow/sleet) looks to be rather small. A 1-4 hour period of showery wet snow-sleet will probably occur across the I-84 corridor early Saturday. There even could be spotty freezing rain? Minor-short duration impact, at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible in the Poconos. Elsewhere for the I84 corridor, inclusive of nw NJ, expect a Trace-3/4"; A quick change to rain occurs shortly after onset, except that change to rain in the Poconos and northwest hills of CT may not occur til ~ 10AM Saturday. Melting all surfaces once the change to rain has occurred. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping. Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Uncertain but probably not a significant problem. Complex rain (spotty ice) possibly end as snow event. Any icy weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. Precipitation may end briefly as snow the rest of I84 corridor Monday morning March 1? So far, models say proceed with normal life with significant wintry weather unlikely. Monday night March 1 I-84 corridor---near midnight: A strong cold frontal passage may be accompanied by a dusting to 1/2" of snow. If this occurs, the sudden drop in temps with the snowfall would make it slippery. March 3-6: Uncertain modeling continues to suggest a wintry event that may include several inches of hazardous snow for the I84 corridor northward? Some models have no storm, so nothing to be sure of.

Yes, but no threading for me, as of 12z/25 modeling including multiple ensembles. EPS continues though not quite as much snow as previous. The NAO transitions seem to be associated with storminess. GGEM/GEPS are onto it. GEFS doesn't have much, yet. Waiting it out and to see also 2/27 and 2/28-3/1. Temps this time of year and per NAEFS suggest elevation dependent mainly NE&NW suburbs.

Hi! Not yet starting a thread for March 3-6, but add this EPS snowfall by midnight Friday night, as a tease. IF the EPS can maintain this in its 12z/25 cycle, this and the GEFS continues gravitating to a pretty decent east coast trough next week, then would begin a thread. For now, resides in March. IF the EPS loses 2" of snow or more, then will forego. I am aware we have open ended uninteresting threads for most here in our forum, Feb 27 and Feb 28-29, so am cautious. This for me is a change in the EPS thinking in the 00z/25 cycle.

Added at 808AM/25 - this 06z/25 EC op image for 2PM Sunday... take it fwiw... matches my interest in this entire two day period. This is a restart. We'll see what gives in future modeling.

Interesting for those of us distant nw suburbs Sunday afternoon. Probably a non factor but sort of fits what has been intermittently modeled the past week or so.

Ah, my mistake: Sunday morning you're probably good. I misunderstood. my error. Saturday morning early is snow there. Sunday... you're probably good but I know others that have plans that way, and I'm not entirely convinced of no ice there on Sunday, but for roads, not a factor. If it indeed does ice a bit on Sunday the 28th. Sorry bout that misunderstanding on my part. I am certain it will at least rain on Sunday, so normal cautions on wet roads. Added at 808AM/25 - this 06z/25 EC op image for 2PM Sunday... take it fwiw... matches my interest in this entire two day period. This is a restart. We'll see what gives in future modeling.

730A/Thursday the 25th: 3AM - 10AM Saturday (27th), a 1-4 hour period of wet snow will probably occur across the I-84 corridor west of Hartford early Saturday. Possible minor short duration impact at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible before a change to rain around or after 10AM Saturday and then melting all surfaces. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping. No obs thread, unless modeling shifts a little closer to NYC (within 10 miles).

Thursday morning (25) 659AM update: Modeling and WPC is coming up on qpf for Sunday and there may be lingering Monday morning at the least. I have not crossed this thread off as a bust for the I84 corridor. No excuses. I still think it's on the boards and what I do think I know is that decent qpf is coming the 28th. Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Uncertain but probably not a significant problem. A complex rain (spotty ice) possibly change to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1, but for now models say proceed with normal life. As you know, GFS modeling is drifting away from its excessive cold outbreak Monday night and leaves the door open for a little more than meets the eye (so far). I might be completely wrong for this period, regarding a wintry event occurrence but the door for me, is not yet closed.

I think this starts aroud 3AM in the Poconos and changes to rain there by 9AM. Should be less than a 6 hour event. EPS/GEFS say an inch. Depends on qpf intensity but it does look a little interesting there for a decent burst 5-7A.

Good Thursday morning everyone, Feb 25: Am running 45 minutes late. Focus is the I84 corridor As a friend said yesterday, winter's back is broken. No large scale hazardous wintry events foreseen through March 2nd. However...3AM - 10AM Saturday (27th), a 1-4 hour period of wet snow will probably occur across the I-84 corridor west of Hartford early Saturday. Possible minor short duration impact at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible before a change to rain around or after 10AM Saturday and then melting all surfaces. Most may not notice the snow if sleeping. No obs thread, unless modeling shifts a little closer to NYC (within 10 miles). Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Uncertain but probably not a significant problem. A complex rain (spotty ice) possibly change to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1, but for now models say proceed with normal life. As you know, GFS modeling is drifting away from its excessive cold outbreak Monday night and leaves the door open for a little more than meets the eye (so far). I might be completely wrong for this period, regarding a wintry event occurrence but the door for me, is not yet closed. March 3-6: Uncertain modeling is gravitating toward an event that may include several inches of hazardous snow for the I84 corridor northward. Timing etc? No thread. EPS like's it. GEFS seems to be drifting in that direction. NAEFS noddy yet responding. 652A/25

Yesterdays (2/23) wet snowfall, much of it melting as it fell to the ground, except highest elevations.

Wednesday morning 655AM update: Title remains unchanged. May need to add a bit of ice for the interior in future reviews. Multiple model ensemble reviews of the 00z/24 cycle and 06z/24 GFS and V16 op reviews. Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Still uncertain. A complex potential significant rain to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1 with significant hazardous high terrain accumulations of several inches I84 itself northward, while much less impact in the valleys below 700 feet elevation (Hartford, Poughkeepsie, Scranton). A shot of notably cold air follows Monday night (but not the GFS op ferocity which doesn't have much support). This for me is the 00z/24 consensus from NAEFS and 06/24 V16. Definitely not buying the GFS powerful cold shot preempting an event. I could be wrong but I see enough cold air seeping into the backside of whatever comes out of the Ohio Valley to make for a snow risk. It could even snow down to LI/I78 at the tail end (low chance for now, but a window that needs to remain open). It's complex and details remain tbd. It's possible I've read too much into this thread?? Considerations include WPC continues rather dry and very little wintry weather risk.

Good Wednesday morning Feb 24, Have posted nw suburbs thread since this nuisance negligible event appears focused for only high terrain of an inch or so Saturday morning before a change to rain/melting. Might provide a bit of a minor slippery slushy hazard untreated surfaces before sunrise Saturday nw of I287, i.e. nw NJ hills/ne PA Poconos and interior se NYS toward the Catskills, and possibly Litchfield County, northern Fairfield County CT. Small possibility of an obs thread if snow occurs as some modeling tries to do to within 10 miles of NYC, but for now... not counting on that thread. This one would suffice, if this does minor snow occurs. Probably good to monitor NAM/RGEM cycles for consistent trends-if any. And the GFSv16 too, if you have access thru Pivatol Weather. V16 may be available elsewhere? If so, please share. COD?

Good Wednesday morning everyone, Feb 24: The 00z-06z/24 impressions regarding on-going threads but think focus has to be primarily the I84 corridor. No graphics. No large scale 6+" snowstorms foreseen through March 2nd, and possibly through March 11. Saturday morning (27th). A period light snow will occur across the I-84 corridor west of Hartford (including se NYS) early Saturday. Possible minor short duration impact at worst, reserved primarily higher terrain where an inch or 2 is possible before a change to rain after 10AM Saturday and then melting all surfaces. Late Sunday the 28th-Monday March 1: I84 corridor. Still uncertain. A complex potential significant rain to snow event. Any wintry weather Sunday evening the 28th is reserved for the Poconos. It could spread across the rest of I84 corridor by Monday morning March 1 with significant hazardous high terrain accumulations of several inches I84 itself northward, with the valleys below 700 feet elevation much less impact (Hartford, Poughkeepsie, Scranton). A shot of notably cold air follows Monday night.

Wantage at 740'MSL Nice snow this morning but only T. Melted as it fell to the ground. 34F. Roads wet.