wdrag

Several (June 26 and now the 27th) GFS op cycles of 4+ are on the table, though the 3+ on the12z/26 EC has waned in it's 00z/27 cycle, since it's drying us out July 3-5. HOWEVER, this becomes interesting for me since both 00z/27 ensembles are taking the the Great Lakes trough and trying to keep it pretty strong in the upper Ohio Valley-across PA on the 3rd and then eastward thereafter. Suggests to me the front hangs up around here with a shot of WAA heavy showers/embedded thunder July 3 and possibly 4, before it all goes dry for several days. Where would that occur? S of I80, I80 or north. My guess is south of I80 across NJ but??? So, continuing the unscientific cut of the GFS op run max qpf in half, I still think there' is a good chance of 4+ somewhere in our forum. Not too hard to come by, with one 3 hour merging cluster of Tstorms any of these days this coming week Uncertainty exists where persistence of high PW will occur between June 28th-July 4. PW, almost throughout that period is still ~ 1.8" or above near NYC through July 2nd... and Thickness near 576 with weak boundaries, suggests to me some big storms (damaging wet downbursts) coming in the high CAPE air this coming week. Dates and where?? Appears to me Wed June 30 and or Thu July 1 are candidates for severe outlooks here...enough wind aloft combined with currently modeled big Cape/PW/KI. Isolated SVR cant be ruled out Mon (June 28) and Tue (June 29) in the big Cape north of I80 but wind aloft is weak...which would favor thunderstorm generated very narrow swaths of big rain but not necessarily svr. To me: Seems hard to miss big storms that are capable of producing localized FF and/or wind damage mid or end of the week. No topic from myself because while it might be a little early in the summer, I just look at background thicknesses in the dead of summer (not looking at climo) and consider this within the norm. IF it becomes evident that we can have storms gain attention of a sizable percent of our forum (SPC OUTLOOK), then will generate a topic (possibly encompassing two or 3 days) but for now - just monitoring cyclicly. This Sunday afternoon and evening: latest 06z-08z/27 HRRR and RGEM have nothing while 00z-6z/27 EC/FV3/GFS/HRDPS have notable storms ne PA leaking into nw NJ.

Obviously depends on persistence for PWAT over our subforum through 8PM July 5, and so the the several (June 26) GFS op cycles of 4+ and now 3+ on the12z/2e6 EC, may end up too high for a MAX isolated point total. So lets' unscientifically cut the 7 to 3.5... max total somewhere in the subforum by July 5.... Not too hard to come by within one 3 hours merging cluster of storms. The uncertainty is where persistence will occur between June 28th-July 4. PWAT, almost throughout that period is 1.8" or above near NYC... and Thickness near 576 with weak boundaries, suggests to me some big storms (damaging wet downbursts) coming in the high CAPE air this coming week. Dates and where?? Based on what I've seen I am expecting two days of SVR in the subforum this week. Whether extensive or not?? but seems hard to miss big storms that are capable of producing localized FF and/or wind damage. No topic from myself because while it might be a little early in the summer, I just look at background thicknesses in the dead of summer (not looking at climo) and consider this within the norm. IF it becomes evident that we can have storms gain attention of a sizable percent of our forum, will try to generate a topic but reserved for now - just monitoring cyclicly. By the way I see NJ did nice today with many 0.1 to 1/4" amounts, even an isolated .49 per data. GFS convective output has been offering this for quite a while and even the conservative EC. Worthy of monitoring GFS convective output in the subforum, especially ending 18z and 00z 6 hour time periods. and convective leftovers ending 06z. There should be something daily somewhere in our subforum through ~July 4.

Drizzling in Wantage at 615A Saturday and driveway getting the damp look.

Despite the 4 days of activity (tiny area NYS/NJ) Sunday afternoon-evening, rainfall max's did not repeat over the same area Sat-The, so max amounts under 2" in our area but at least halfway decent amounts occurred LI, NW NJ, parts of se NYS-CT. Still, not a big deal and continues the seasonable pattern.

few reports of damage far nw NJ, 0.65 Wantage. Almost over and tomorrow looks like a band or two of heavy showers but svr unlikely except small possibility LI/CT/Coastal NJ???

Warnings OH/PA at 1, probably to NJ by ~7PM ish. Should be pretty fast moving. Max rainfalls so far past two days ~1.5" sw Ct and N Central NJ. Unsure whether 12z/21 EC is a tease overdone, but if not... plenty of rain coming with high KI, PWAT, and some decent Cape NYC eastward tomorrow + decent flow aloft. Clusters heavy rain and weak sfc CAA Tuesday may limit the svr threat Tuesday, but eastern LI might be interesting? For now, though would monitor this evening in our subforum. I probably won't be able to contribute after 430P-10P.

I've got a few minutes to add some impressions... Watch likely MCD is out. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1048.html NJ expectations later in the day/eve. Will check CoCoRAHS for two days and revisit tomorrow. WPC is rather paltry on qpf the next 24 hours, so i could be misreading.

So you saw the spotty thunderstorms Sunday afternoon NNJ and extreme as NYS I think dying in sw CT last eve. Haven’t looked real close but believe big storms die out NYC li in the 10ptomidnight time frame today w SPC severe just w of NYC. Tuesday may. Or be severe if this eve is, but have to thiink band of beavy showers and storms Tuesday I95 corridor east. Gotta go

n/c from the overall expectations the next 3 days. timing will mean a lot for Tuesday. WAA isolated or a couple of clusters of showers/storms late today this eve for NJ/NYS/PA; Dying line of SVR appears likely into se NYS/w NJ Mon eve; then the timing of convection and potential svr for Tue. Right now, SPC doesn't like our chances for Tue. Have a wonderful Fathers Day! Attached RFC produced real for yesterday. Seems a little low in the axis, as per previous post of weather station data. Also low per pure radar estimates. Walt

And a sampler of weather station data: several 1"-1.5" in NNJ near I80. No svr.

Looks to me like the HRRR is the way to go, with some south extension blend of the EC/GFS etc. Models have generally missed Nw PA and sw NYS, even CT. I have no answer except the 19z HRRR cons spewing near 50KT gust ne NJ across n LI this eve. Whether that occurs, per SPC and my gut, am not confident but this is a developing situation into this eve. Should be decent qpf I78 to I80 and maybe LI.

Uncertainty as always but SPC has expanded their D1 into our area, and the attached 12z HRRR suggests iso 50-55KT gusts into PA/NJ/LI, mirroring the 00z/19 EC OP. Looks to me like 90-95F today (non marine), decent CAPE. The severe risk suppresses south tomorrow, but WAA begins late Sunday and then both Monday and Tuesday look steamy 90-95F inland, depending on sunshine which also implies cirrus from Claudette possibly tempering heat/cape. This should result in pockets of heavy convection, and where training, could see a ISOLATED max of 4" by 6PM Tuesday. Otherwise, the necessarily more conservative early Saturday WPC outlook works. So while not a big deal (yet) for heavy rain, the convection later today, later Monday and Tuesday could provide some news (damage) footage, including lightning related. Walt

SEVERE storms-reports/watch late today and Tuesday: Today: I think NJ and ePA along and s of I80 will see severe sometime between 5P and midnight. This per EC wind fields with an 850 jet near NNJ by 06z/Sunday. The lack of big CAPE and low TT in advance to me are the primary drawbacks. PW near 1.8". No topic yet due to limited coverage in the forum and SPC not much agreement except marginal risk (maybe because the 06z/19 GFS is timid). Monday: I didn't look closely at this day but might deserve attention in the future. Tuesday: The severe threat Tuesday may be mostly morning-midday but TT are 50+, KI near 40, PW near 1.8-2.0" despite tropical remnant passing well se. Looks quite active to me and could be a big day deserving a topic. (for me not yet). Later, Walt

Continue to monitor Trop system for infusion qpf into NYC subforum Tuesday - if it misses southeast of us, then it looks rather dry to me the rest of June, despite few cfp severe weather threats. I like the Great Lakes trough developing early next week to draw some of the tropical moisture up here for 12 hours but do realize this could still track south of us. Have a day. Walt

A # of us think best way to get heavy QPF on LI, se coastal New England including Cape Cod: WARM front south with WAA as the front advances northward toward LI and CC with PWAT growing and a nice inflow at 850MB. The lift seems to do the trick w thunderstorms and/or heavy showers.

fwiw: a week ago originally anticipated weekend of 19-20 Tropical infusion, apparently delayed and may still miss to our south... but fwiw... here the EPS modeling from 00z/16. Doesn't mean this clustering will be correct. Worthy of monitoring. Otherwise if we miss this, we might be seeing it a little on the drier side the next couple of weeks??

Good Wednesday morning everyone, The Sunday-Tuesday totals were less than anticipated w NJ, and LI didn't do well. Radar seemed to have spotty higher AMT in NYS-CT but not seen in CoCoRAHS, with a max only 2.4" in NJ. Yesterdays anticipated cold core thunder-small hail did not materialize in our area, as far as I can tell.

Disappointing overnight most of forum ne PA, NW NJ, interior se NYS, bit it's lighting up bit now near NYC. I like the SVR outlook posted above from SPC and despite poor performance overnight in the WAA down our way, still believe widespread 1/4" iso 3+ b y 10P Tues with small hailers Tue afternoon in some spots. Have a day.

Wantage NJ (this part of extreme nw NJ) .01 of widespread 1/4 to as much as spotty 3.0" in the parts of the NYC forum by 10PM Tuesday. Batch one now in nw NJ, suspect 1-2 batches tonight, possibly 1 leftover batch Monday morning,?and probably 1 more band Monday evening-night and with the cold low aloft, more scattered showers/tstms in lower 1" PWAT with small hailers possible Tue afternoon and Wed afternoon. Good for parts of the area. Been sprinkling here at times since just before 9A this morning then it picked up around 11A. Probably ready to click .02 by 1145A. Edited 423P: SPC expanded Marginal risk into NYC in their D2 afternoon update. Looks to me like a few svr will occur e PA/NJ and possibly into NYC late Mon afternoon-evening.

Rainfall yesterday, and this week ending ~8A Sat June 12. Not good LI but the rest of the area, got some decent amounts, especially NJ, ne PA and even spotty in se NYS,sw CT

Review time: Despite only light amounts of showers expected in parts of our area between now and midday Saturday ( models were too far north a week ago on what will happen south of I78 today), we still did okay., Here's some amounts (3 day)---except e LI. Also the weekend of the 19th-20th seems to be favoring a dying tropical intrusion up this way. No details yet and no topic since it's so far all in a seemingly normal less than 3" range for an event.

No topics but fwiw... noted on what I call modest svr wx events of late May/early June. Heavy showers/thunderstorms seem in store for parts of NJ/se NYS maybe NYC 4-10P Monday (PW 1.5") , possibly something predawn Tue, then it should light up 1130A-130P Tuesday. PW up to 1.8" Tuesday. . Modeling after Tue suggests more Wed, and possibly FRI? This will probably further assist alleviating dryness in parts of our area, presuming 1-5" rain occurs in parts of the subforum by sunrise Saturday the 12th. Could be iso svr via wet microburst potential Tuesday but winds aloft are fairly weak with TT marginal ~47-48. I did note the tropical rains trying to involve the northeast around 280-340 hours (~19th), and a couple of cycles of this. We'll see if this can hold as we close in on D7 (144 hrs) - not worth losing sleep over.

After the rains of the 26th-30th, I think the Drought monitor will ease a bit toward normal, plus more rain coming Thu-Fri, it's all helping. So %'s of normal via HPRCC for the past week, month and 6 months are appended. Place not to be is near the Canadian border, if you want water. SVR Thu-Fri: I think the morning is just gully washers where it does rain, no svr; Late Thu-Thu eve...decent wind fields, TT near 50 NYS... and so SPC slight risk looks fine, but am not planning to highlight a topic... as per the recent event that stopped at the NJ coast and also traveled n of POU-DXR. Fri: Less wind aloft but seems pretty unstable and might be a small svr producer? As for heat: NAEFS suggests ridge aloft may minimize the cool downs (850 not as cool) slated for week 3?

It's 6 days off... we know intermittent action late Wed-Fri. After that? Modeling still has some troubles D5 and beyond on timing. Terrible miss for this past Sunday as late as Tuesday 's modeling, tho we probably all knew Sunday might not be a decent day due to trough aloft. Took a while for modeling to coalesce on the Sunday event. It was ~ 12z/26 when modeling drifted toward the second event, originally heralded by the GGEM Not sure if anyone checks the GGEM... need that on board with the EC/GFS to be personally assured of an event. Drought monitor will probably adjust next issuance. HPRCC may have some updated #s this afternoon or Tuesday. What happened this weekend was overall for the betterment of our lives, as dismal as it was. Am confident next weekend won't repeat that cold.Later, Walt

Not pretending to know the influences, but per NAEFS, and general pattern... looks like potential for more than the normal 90+ for the NYC metro area in June, beginning after June 5. June CP norms 90 or greater from what I see, (3) and max 90 or greater (11). So I could easily be wrong and seeing too warm. Also if needed correct me on CP stats, thanks! Plenty more rain for parts of the subforum Wed-weekend, then turn on the bigger warmth.