bluewave

Statistically pretty unlikely since the warm spots like Newark haven’t stayed under 70° from 10-8 to 10-18 which is the end of the GFS run since 2002. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ max temp 10-8 to 10-18 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024-10-18 78 0 2023-10-18 74 0 2022-10-18 71 0 2021-10-18 84 0 2020-10-18 77 0 2019-10-18 75 0 2018-10-18 81 0 2017-10-18 83 0 2016-10-18 85 0 2015-10-18 81 0 2014-10-18 79 0 2013-10-18 75 0 2012-10-18 73 0 2011-10-18 88 0 2010-10-18 79 0 2009-10-18 73 0 2008-10-18 79 0 2007-10-18 89 0 2006-10-18 80 0 2005-10-18 75 0 2004-10-18 76 0 2003-10-18 78 0 2002-10-18 65 0

Another over the top warm up this weekend with the record 90° heat forecast for MSP while we stay in the 80s.

Walpack was able to get their first freeze of the season yesterday. Pretty wild microclimate in that valley with an early morning low of 31° and high still near 70°. Had my coolest morning of the fall so far at 45°. ▼ Walpack NJ 2025-10-02 Mesonet 68 31

30 years averages will take longer to catch up with the shorter term changes. But DCA has only averaged 7.8” over the last 9 seasons. We’ll have to see if the next decade declines a bit more or holds closer to the 7.8” figure. They had been at 17.4”for the previous 9 season period. This is their first 9 year stretch with an average under 10”. Their highest 9 year run was 29.9” back in 1912. Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 0.2 0.3 5.0 1.5 0.9 T 7.8 2024-2025 0.0 T 0.1 8.3 6.5 0.0 0.0 14.9 2023-2024 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.8 0.1 T T 8.0 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 0.4 T T 0.4 2021-2022 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 T 0.9 0.0 13.2 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 T 2.6 2.8 0.0 0.0 5.4 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.2 T 0.0 0.0 0.6 2018-2019 0.0 1.4 0.0 11.5 3.7 0.3 0.0 16.9 2017-2018 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.2 0.2 4.5 T 7.8 2016-2017 0.0 0.0 T 1.4 T 2.0 0.0 3.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for Washington Area, DC (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean T T 2.6 5.5 6.5 2.8 T 17.4 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.8 3.1 0.3 T 22.2 2014-2015 0.0 T T 3.6 9.8 4.9 T 18.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 1.5 6.6 11.2 12.7 T 32.0 2012-2013 0.0 T 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.6 0.0 3.1 2011-2012 T 0.0 T 1.7 0.3 T 0.0 2.0 2010-2011 0.0 T 2.1 7.3 0.5 0.2 T 10.1 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 16.6 7.4 32.1 T 0.0 56.1 2008-2009 0.0 T T 1.9 0.1 5.5 0.0 7.5 2007-2008 0.0 0.0 2.6 1.3 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.9

Unfortunately, the jet max out near the Aleutians was one of the strongest on record for late September. Right along the northern gradient of that record SST pool. Looks like more of the same next few days with a daily 5 sigma jet max. We saw how this lead to the record warmth around our area in late September. It’s no surprise the models are so warm for early October with near 90° heat forecast in places like MSP. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDMPX&e=202510021750 These strong southerly winds will also usher in a very warm airmass, with highs both Friday and Saturday expected to be up around 90 west of I-35 and south of I-94 both days, which will put record highs in play both days for MSP and STC. The only saving grace when it comes to this heat is dewpoints won't be horrendous, mainly in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Still, when the Twin Cities has only seen the high meet or exceed 90 in October 3 times going back to 1872, this a rare airmass for us to see so late into the season.

It’s remarkable how reliable this warm up has been since 2011 from 12-17 to 12-25. Every year has seen at least a high of 55°. This period has had a large concentration of top 3 warmest temperatures. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Max Temp 12-17 to 12-25 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2024-12-25 61 0 2023-12-25 64 0 2022-12-25 58 0 2021-12-25 62 0 2020-12-25 62 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 57 0 2016-12-25 59 0 2015-12-25 71 0 2014-12-25 64 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 57 0 2011-12-25 62 0

Yeah, it was nice. But the 55+ warmup occurred right on schedule just before on the 17th and 18th. Then mid 60s warmth to close out the month. Sum 1396 953 - - 833 0 4.39 3.5 2024-12-17 61 46 53.5 15.9 11 0 0.02 0.0 0 2024-12-18 55 39 47.0 9.6 18 0 0.23 0.0 0 2024-12-19 47 36 41.5 4.4 23 0 0.04 0.0 0 2024-12-20 39 33 36.0 -0.9 29 0 0.05 0.3 0 2024-12-21 33 20 26.5 -10.1 38 0 0.08 2.2 2 2024-12-22 23 13 18.0 -18.4 47 0 0.00 0.0 1 2024-12-23 29 11 20.0 -16.2 45 0 0.00 0.0 1 2024-12-24 41 26 33.5 -2.4 31 0 0.07 1.0 T 2024-12-25 36 27 31.5 -4.2 33 0 0.00 0.0 T 2024-12-26 39 22 30.5 -5.0 34 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-12-27 44 22 33.0 -2.3 32 0 0.00 0.0 0 2024-12-28 48 38 43.0 7.9 22 0 0.71 0.0 0 2024-12-29 65 46 55.5 20.6 9 0 0.19 0.0 0 2024-12-30 59 44 51.5 16.8 13 0 0.21 0.0 0 2024-12-31 54 38 46.0 11.5 19 0 0.71 0.0 0

It has become one of our most persistent annual climate patterns. For some reason the late December temperatures have been warming faster than during early December. So even if the models early in December aren’t showing a big warm up closer to the Solstice, they always play catch up as the period gets closer.

We have been getting these consistent patterns of June into early August record heat. Then a cooldown later in August and sometimes in early September. Then record warmth from late September into sometimes early November like last year. This is why we haven’t had 100° heat after early August in 20 years and early September in over 30 years. The record early October mid 90s heat in 2019 was too late to reach 100°. But a month earlier we probably would have reached 100° if it was closer to Labor Day . Almost like the pattern every year now of 55+ warmth from December 17th to the 25th. These patterns have been very persistent.

Places like Islip just had their 3rd warmest September with record heat later in the month. Climatological Data for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - September 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Sum 2344 1841 - - 7 156 1.58 0.0 - Average 78.1 61.4 69.8 2.9 - - - - 0.0 Normal 74.8 58.9 66.9 - 53 108 3.60 2025-09-01 77 57 67.0 -4.2 0 2 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-02 78 58 68.0 -3.0 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-03 76 56 66.0 -4.8 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-04 78 58 68.0 -2.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-05 81 68 74.5 4.2 0 10 0.29 0.0 0 2025-09-06 82 67 74.5 4.5 0 10 0.39 0.0 0 2025-09-07 67 60 63.5 -6.2 1 0 0.41 0.0 0 2025-09-08 74 56 65.0 -4.5 0 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-09 74 53 63.5 -5.7 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-10 74 64 69.0 0.1 0 4 0.01 0.0 0 2025-09-11 81 57 69.0 0.4 0 4 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-12 79 61 70.0 1.8 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-13 76 58 67.0 -0.9 0 2 0.14 0.0 0 2025-09-14 79 62 70.5 2.9 0 6 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-15 82 63 72.5 5.2 0 8 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-16 76 63 69.5 2.6 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-17 74 64 69.0 2.4 0 4 T 0.0 0 2025-09-18 83 66 74.5 8.3 0 10 T 0.0 0 2025-09-19 85 61 73.0 7.2 0 8 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-20 75 57 66.0 0.5 0 1 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-21 71 52 61.5 -3.6 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-22 74 51 62.5 -2.2 2 0 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-23 79 65 72.0 7.6 0 7 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-24 80 70 75.0 11.0 0 10 0.07 0.0 0 2025-09-25 77 71 74.0 10.4 0 9 0.23 0.0 0 2025-09-26 85 66 75.5 12.3 0 11 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-27 82 63 72.5 9.7 0 8 0.03 0.0 0 2025-09-28 84 66 75.0 12.6 0 10 0.01 0.0 0 2025-09-29 79 65 72.0 10.0 0 7 0.00 0.0 0 2025-09-30 82 63 72.5 10.9 0 8 0.00 0.0 0

We got an early taste for fall in late August into early September before the endless summer pattern arrived in September with backloaded monthly record heat.

Very refreshing after all the heat this summer. This area cools off better than the South Shore of Long Island. This same dry pattern will help with the warm up this weekend. Places away from the weak sea breeze will probably beat guidance by a few degrees. So there could be some usual NJ warm spots that get near 85° with comfortable dewpoints in the 40s since models are already showing 83° highs away from the sea breeze.

My coolest morning of the fall so far with a low of 46°.

The Plains was the coolest part of the CONUS this summer relative to the long term averages.

This observation from the Phoenix NWS matches the recent study as to how quickly people normalize extreme weather. It’s one of the reasons that climate change is pretty far down on the list of priorities for many. Phoenix is still one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country. https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/how-quickly-we-normalize-extreme-weather The study, published Feb. 25 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, indicates that people have short memories when it comes to what they consider “normal” weather. On average, people base their idea of normal weather on what has happened in just the past two to eight years. This disconnect with the historical climate record may obscure the public’s perception of climate change. “There’s a risk that we’ll quickly normalize conditions we don’t want to normalize,” said lead author Frances C. Moore, an assistant professor in the UC Davis Department of Environmental Science and Policy. “We are experiencing conditions that are historically extreme, but they might not feel particularly unusual if we tend to forget what happened more than about five years ago.

This dryness up here this summer with only 4.99” and the record heat was similar to the 2022 and 1999 back on Long Island. Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2000 3.02 65 2 1966 4.15 0 3 2022 4.29 0 4 2017 4.76 3 5 2025 4.99 0 Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1999 4.00 63 2 2010 4.15 0 3 2022 4.68 1 4 2016 6.68 2 5 2005 6.92 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1966 3.89 0 2 2022 5.20 0 3 1999 5.56 0 4 1965 5.68 0 5 1993 5.71 0

Unless you are involved in agriculture or gardening. Above normal temperatures during the warm season just dry things out when the rainfall is below average. Had very dry vegetation up here through the summer. But the water table has been high enough coming off the very wet pattern before last September so the reservoir levels are good for most locations.

Longest streak in a decade up here without a daily inch of rain. Number of Consecutive Days Precipitation < 1.00 for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 244 2014-12-10 through 2015-08-10 2 240 1964-12-05 through 1965-08-01 3 200 2001-10-10 through 2002-04-27 4 194 1965-08-03 through 1966-02-12 5 171 2013-06-09 through 2013-11-26 6 160 1971-02-09 through 1971-07-18 7 159 1960-11-02 through 1961-04-09 8 151 2015-08-12 through 2016-01-09 9 148 2025-05-06 through 2025-09-30 - 148 1962-04-02 through 1962-08-27

Very refreshing breeze today between the closest hurricanes on record in the satellite era and the big high to the north. Nice to get a few days closer to seasonable before the pattern warms back up again. Continuation of the dry pattern since September 2024.

First time since 1982 that New Brunswick had a colder monthly minimum temperature in August than September. Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2025 48 49 48 2024 51 45 45 2023 55 49 49 2022 55 41 41 2021 55 50 50 2020 56 38 38 2019 55 42 42 2018 55 50 50 2017 53 46 46 2016 52 43 43 2015 53 47 47 2014 50 42 42 2013 51 40 40 2012 54 42 42 2011 52 42 42 2010 52 44 44 2009 56 43 43 2008 53 46 46 2007 55 43 43 2006 51 40 40 2005 55 40 40 2004 52 44 44 2003 53 45 45 2002 55 47 47 2001 54 43 43 2000 49 36 36 1999 54 44 44 1998 50 39 39 1997 53 36 36 1996 55 43 43 1995 52 45 45 1994 50 44 44 1993 56 36 36 1992 50 38 38 1991 53 37 37 1990 56 40 40 1989 51 35 35 1988 51 45 45 1987 45 39 39 1986 42 39 39 1985 53 42 42 1984 50 38 38 1983 51 37 37 1982 40 44 40

Another very warm start to fall around the area. Numerous stations finishing within top 10 warmest for September. Islip had their 3rd warmest September on record. The last top 3 coldest September there was in 1978. The last top 10 coldest was 2009 at 9th coldest. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2018 66.8 0 2 2015 66.5 0 3 2011 65.9 0 4 2025 65.8 0 5 2021 65.7 0 6 2005 65.5 0 7 2014 65.2 0 8 2017 65.1 0 9 2019 65.0 0 10 2016 64.6 8 Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 69.8 0 2 2018 69.4 0 3 2016 68.7 0 - 2005 68.7 0 4 2025 68.2 0 5 2011 67.9 0 6 2019 67.8 0 7 2017 67.6 0 8 2023 67.4 0 9 2021 67.3 0 10 2010 67.0 0 - 2004 67.0 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1961 71.0 0 2 2015 69.9 0 3 2016 68.8 0 4 2005 68.4 0 - 1959 68.4 1 5 1983 68.2 0 6 1985 68.1 3 7 2018 68.0 0 - 1971 68.0 0 8 2017 67.9 0 9 1970 67.8 0 10 2025 67.7 0 - 2011 67.7 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1961 74.5 0 2 1881 73.9 0 3 2005 73.5 0 4 2015 73.4 0 5 2021 72.5 0 6 2016 71.8 0 - 1971 71.8 0 7 2025 71.7 0 - 1921 71.7 6 8 2010 71.6 0 9 1959 71.5 0 10 2018 71.4 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 70.9 0 2 2005 70.2 0 3 2025 69.8 0 - 2018 69.8 0 4 2021 69.6 0 - 1980 69.6 0 5 2017 69.0 0 - 2011 69.0 0 6 2016 68.9 0 7 2023 68.6 0 - 1998 68.6 0 8 2010 68.3 0 9 2022 68.2 0 10 1983 68.1 0 - 1971 68.1 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2000 75.0 26 2 1961 70.2 0 3 2021 70.1 0 4 2018 69.4 0 5 2025 69.2 0 - 2023 69.2 0 6 2015 69.1 0 - 2011 69.1 0 7 2010 68.9 0 8 2022 68.7 0 9 1971 68.5 0 10 1977 68.3 0

It just works out that the first week of October has warmer record highs than the last week of September. Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2025-09-30DateHighest maximum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 9/24 92 in 2017 92 in 1959 89 in 1970 9/25 91 in 1970 90 in 2017 90 in 2010+ 9/26 90 in 2007 90 in 1958 88 in 1970 9/27 91 in 1998 89 in 1933 88 in 2017 9/28 89 in 2025 87 in 2014 86 in 2019 9/29 89 in 1945 83 in 1959 82 in 2015+ 9/30 89 in 1986 85 in 1954 83 in 2025 10/1 85 in 1986 85 in 1950 84 in 2019+ 10/2 96 in 2019 86 in 2013 86 in 2002+ 10/3 85 in 2023 85 in 1950 84 in 2021+ 10/4 89 in 2013 87 in 2007 87 in 1959 10/5 93 in 1941 87 in 1967 86 in 2017 10/6 91 in 1959 90 in 1941 88 in 1997+ 10/7 88 in 1944 87 in 1946 85 in 199

Several stations came within a few degrees of their warmest high for the last week of September. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2017-09-30 89 0 2 2014-09-30 88 0 - 2007-09-30 88 0 3 2025-09-30 87 0 4 2010-09-30 85 0 5 2018-09-30 82 0 - 2011-09-30 82 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2017-09-30 92 0 - 1959-09-30 92 0 - 1881-09-30 92 0 2 1998-09-30 91 0 - 1970-09-30 91 0 3 2010-09-30 90 0 - 2007-09-30 90 0 - 1968-09-30 90 0 - 1958-09-30 90 0 - 1895-09-30 90 0 4 2025-09-30 89 0 - 1986-09-30 89 0 - 1945-09-30 89 0 - 1933-09-30 89 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2017-09-30 89 0 2 2010-09-30 87 0 3 1998-09-30 86 0 4 2025-09-30 85 0 - 1970-09-30 85 0 5 2009-09-30 83 0 - 1972-09-30 83 0

This was still the warmest last week of September for many across the region. Time Series Summary for SOMERSET AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-09-30 71.2 1 2 2011-09-30 70.3 0 3 2017-09-30 69.4 0 4 2010-09-30 69.3 0 5 2015-09-30 67.0 0 6 2007-09-30 66.8 0 7 2020-09-30 66.5 0 8 2024-09-30 66.1 0 - 2019-09-30 66.1 0 9 2004-09-30 65.0 0 10 2014-09-30 64.4 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-09-30 69.4 1 2 2011-09-30 68.6 0 3 2010-09-30 66.9 0 4 2017-09-30 66.3 0 5 2020-09-30 65.1 0 6 2007-09-30 64.8 0 7 2024-09-30 64.5 0 8 2014-09-30 64.3 0 9 2015-09-30 63.5 0 10 2019-09-30 62.6 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-09-30 73.2 1 2 2017-09-30 72.0 0 3 2011-09-30 71.8 0 4 1959-09-30 71.6 0 - 1920-09-30 71.6 0 5 2010-09-30 71.2 0 6 1945-09-30 71.0 0 7 1933-09-30 70.5 0 8 1923-09-30 69.9 0 9 1910-09-30 69.8 2 10 1970-09-30 69.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1881-09-30 77.5 0 2 2025-09-30 75.0 1 3 1959-09-30 73.3 0 4 2011-09-30 73.1 0 5 2010-09-30 72.6 0 6 1986-09-30 72.1 0 7 2017-09-30 72.0 0 8 1920-09-30 71.1 1 9 2007-09-30 70.5 0 10 2019-09-30 70.4 0 - 1968-09-30 70.4 0 - 1933-09-30 70.4 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-09-30 71.0 1 2 1959-09-30 70.9 0 3 2011-09-30 69.5 0 4 2017-09-30 69.1 0 5 1970-09-30 69.0 0 6 2010-09-30 68.7 0 7 2007-09-30 67.6 0 8 1986-09-30 66.9 0 9 1968-09-30 66.7 0 10 2020-09-30 66.6 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-09-30 72.5 1 2 1959-09-30 72.4 0 3 2011-09-30 71.7 0 4 2010-09-30 71.6 0 5 2017-09-30 70.9 0 6 1986-09-30 69.8 0 7 1968-09-30 69.6 0 8 2007-09-30 69.2 0 9 2015-09-30 69.1 0 10 2020-09-30 68.9 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-09-30 74.5 1 2 1959-09-30 74.3 0 3 2007-09-30 73.8 0 4 2010-09-30 73.7 0 5 2011-09-30 72.1 0 6 2017-09-30 72.0 0 7 2020-09-30 71.9 0 8 1986-09-30 71.7 0 9 2019-09-30 71.4 0 10 1968-09-30 69.7 0 - 1945-09-30 69.7 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-09-30 74.0 1 2 2010-09-30 71.1 0 3 2011-09-30 70.7 0 4 2017-09-30 69.6 0 5 2007-09-30 68.1 0 6 2020-09-30 68.0 0 - 1986-09-30 68.0 0 8 2015-09-30 66.9 0 9 1972-09-30 66.4 0 10 2019-09-30 66.3 0 11 2014-09-30 65.9 0 Time Series Summary for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025-09-30 72.1 1 2 2011-09-30 71.5 0 3 2010-09-30 71.2 0 4 1970-09-30 70.4 2 5 1959-09-30 69.9 0 6 2020-09-30 69.1 0 7 2017-09-30 67.9 0 8 2019-09-30 67.0 0 - 2007-09-30 67.0 0 10 2024-09-30 66.1 0 11 2014-09-30 65.5 0

The cleaner air is probably a piece of the puzzle as to why the actual temperatures in the Northern Pacific have greatly exceeded the climate model forecasts in recent years.