Jump to content

bluewave

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    35,338

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by bluewave

  1. bluewave
    I posted the GFS cold bias earlier in this thread. The model loves to push the baroclinic zone too far S and E. So the storms end up too suppressed.
  2. bluewave
    It’s telling us that the GFS is probably too flat again.
  3. bluewave
    The UKMET looks further NW than the GFS. But these early lo res charts aren’t the easiest to make out. https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=72&carte=1021
  4. bluewave
    The NAM actually looks like it could be one of the EPS members more than the GEFS.
  5. bluewave
    Great day to finish any yard clean ups with a top 5 warmest 12-13 in tap. Data for December 13 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2015-12-13 67 55 0.00 0.0 0 1923-12-13 64 42 0.10 0.0 0 1984-12-13 63 46 0.00 0.0 0 1946-12-13 63 36 T 0.0 0 1919-12-13 61 42 0.07 0.0 0 1990-12-13 60 41 0.00 0.0 0 1968-12-13 60 36 0.00 0.0 0 1949-12-13 60 36 0.17 0.0 0
  6. bluewave
    The models that handle the 500 mb heights near Oregon and general PNA best will get the storm track correct. Bottom line: I'll be really curious to see tonight's MFR sounding. That 500mb height observation will perhaps help give us (and models) a clue where the storm might go later on. 5570m vs 5590m may seem small, but in a nonlinear system those tiny differences grow rapidly!
  7. bluewave
    This storm will push up against one of the strongest 50/50 lows on record.
  8. bluewave
    The next big leap may be AI. https://www.ecmwf.int/en/newsletter/163/news/ai-and-machine-learning-ecmwf ECMWF is currently making a significant effort to support applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning and to identify how such applications may improve numerical weather prediction at the Centre. Many standard methods used by ECMWF scientists on a daily basis can be regarded as examples of machine learning. However, there has recently been a surge in new methods which have the potential to revolutionise the work of operational weather prediction centres. Such methods include the use of deep neural networks, which can learn the dynamics of very complex non-linear systems from data.
  9. bluewave
    Today should be the warmest day of the month so far with widespread 60s. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 12/13/2020 0000 UTC DT /DEC 13 /DEC 14 /DEC 15 / HR 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 18 00 X/N 63 37 44 29 40 TMP 51 50 50 55 60 59 53 47 42 40 39 39 41 41 38 37 34 32 30 38 32
  10. bluewave
    I don’t know. But it seems like when you try to fix one model bias or error, it creates another one. The real model data that you want are local model model biases for the individual NWS offices. So you can say x model is having this bias for storms with y teleconnections in place around the NY Bight. But these general model statistics don’t go that local to include elements such as storm track.
  11. bluewave
    They fixed the GFS cold bias with the v16. But now it has a warm bias compared to the other guidance. The 500 MB skill scores are a little lower than the current OP. That being said, I have no idea how it will do with this storm since it’s just 1 case. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/
  12. bluewave
    It’s probably more accurate to use the term model biases. Seasonal storm track biases have been well documented. But we would need to use machine learning for real time model bias correction to the forecast maps.
  13. bluewave
    Looks like the 12z EPS was a little more tucked today vs yesterday due to the slightly weaker +PNA. The first really important run should be 12z Sunday when the energy is fully ashore in California. Then we watch to see what type of short term trends develop.
  14. bluewave
    The AO volatility continues to make headlines. This could be one of the greatest +November to -December reversals on record. Notice how a very +AO in November usually carried over to December. The one exception was 1978. 2020 2.419 3.417 2.641 0.928 -0.027 -0.122 -0.412 -0.381 0.631 -0.072 2.086 2015 1.092 1.043 1.837 1.216 0.763 0.427 -1.108 -0.689 -0.165 -0.250 1.945 1.444 2013 -0.610 -1.007 -3.185 0.322 0.494 0.549 -0.011 0.154 -0.461 0.263 2.029 1.475 2011 -1.683 1.575 1.424 2.275 -0.035 -0.858 -0.472 -1.063 0.665 0.800 1.459 2.221 1994 -0.288 -0.862 1.881 0.225 -0.115 1.606 0.351 0.828 -0.084 0.174 1.779 0.894 1978 -0.347 -3.014 0.502 -0.967 0.059 0.635 -0.604 -0.354 -0.099 0.895 2.470 -0.980
  15. bluewave
    The high over New England will really fight to hold on with a -4.5 SD 50/50 vortex. I wonder if this is close to the record for mid-December? 11 500 4815
  16. bluewave
    Plenty of high octane fuel if we can hold that BM track.
  17. bluewave
    We’ll be good to go if these solutions hold once within the NAM’s best range. The NAM has been our go to model for snowfall with the numerous Euro misses in recent years. I can still remember the NAM bringing home the goods on the January 2016 blizzard while the Euro was too suppressed.
  18. bluewave
    The other thing to watch for is coastal flooding. The astronomical tides will be the highest of December this week with the new moon. Unfortunately, The solar eclipse will only be visible in the Southern Hemisphere. All that is needed for moderate coastal flooding is a 2 foot surge. The big high to the north can make this possible creating a gale to possible storm force gradient. A slower track in later runs would also help to pile up the water. https://www.space.com/total-solar-eclipse-2020-preview
  19. bluewave
    Blocking. First the big +PNA spike early in the month and now the strong block near Greenland and the Pole.
  20. bluewave
    That’s not what I am saying. It’s pretty rare for any individual model or ensemble group to nail a winter storm track down from 5 days out. But the models and ensemble members show some PNA spread which is normal. Even among the EPS members, we do better with the members with a stronger ridge near California. It allows the UL to dig closer to the TV instead of GL. The further south the UL digs, the better insurance policy we have against a hugger track. We may have to wait until the UL comes ashore near California tonight into Sunday for a more definitive answer.
  21. bluewave
    We may just have to take it week by week and month by month. Past expectations based on canonical El Niño or La Niña patterns haven’t been working out since 18-19. Too many competing warm SST blobs for the seasonal models to handle. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall CSI ENSO: The case of the missing central Pacific rainfall Author: Nat Johnson February 28, 2019 As Emily’s most recent post describes, the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere have finally coupled, allowing NOAA to declare that weak El Niño conditions are present. It’s nice to see the atmosphere and ocean in a cooperative mood, but ENSO forecasters are left with a mystery: why did the expected atmospheric response go missing for so long? In this blog post, we’ll put our detective hats on and look for clues.
  22. bluewave
    You can see how many competing influences there were this month in that 500mb height anomaly map. This may be our first December with a configuration like that. No wonder none of the seasonal model forecasts had a look like that. We were discussing in the other thread back in November how unusual the combination of conflicting SST features were. This could be the 3rd winter in a row that a straight ENSO (El Niño-La Nina) based expectation forecast doesn’t work out.
  23. bluewave
    We’ll see if the MJO can weaken by January.
  24. bluewave
    Better +PNA ridge in California this run so the snowier outcome near the coast. New run Old run
  25. bluewave
    The EPS has had the mid-December storm signal for weeks now. But it also had a moderation in temperatures around the solstice. What it missed was the warm up this weekend.
×
×
  • Create New...