bluewave

Human history is all about developing technology to adapt to our surroundings and then migrating when the technology can’t keep up anymore.

Seems like many of us on these boards are in the minority as to which type of weather we like the best. I know forums like this one originally started out as winter weather lover gathering spots. That’s why there has been so much resistance to the concept of climate change throughout the years. But even that has been shifting recently as the warming has become so obvious. The biggest population increases in this country have been in places that are subject to extreme heat, droughts, hurricanes, flooding, etc. So I am not sure if the migration patterns within this country will be sustainable over the long term with increasing extreme weather. People that I talk to can’t wait to move to places that don’t get any snow or cold and where they can wear their shorts all year. But I don’t think that they are taking into account how the extremes in those locations may make those areas harder to adapt to. I guess we’ll see if the future has people shifting back to cooler locations.

The comparison over the satellite era has been pretty consistent. Since we aren’t missing storms now that may have been missed before satellites. Those were called shorties that dissipated before they were detected. But there have been reanalysis papers done that figures out how many short lived storms out at sea may have been missed by shipping.

One station is often up a bit more than the others in our area. It really comes down to the prevailing winds. Essex county, NJ and Queens, NY seem to take turns being the warmest. Having our airports close to the water often leads to localalized warm spots since wind direction is so important. Last summer it was the bay breeze keeping Newark cooler. This year the flow pattern has kept LGA cooler. Jun 21….EWR….+3.5…..LGA…+2.2 Aug 20…EWR….+1.3…..LGA….+2.0 Jul 20….EWR….+2.6……LGA…..+3.7 Jun 20…EWR….+1.7……LGA….+2.5

Looks like a brief weekend cool down before our next surge of +20C 850 mb temps on Tuesday.

Newark made it to 103°yesterday for a new all-time June monthly maximum temperature. This was matched by the new Corona, Queens micronet station. Several other stations reached 100° also. So Essex and Queens counties were the warmest around the area in June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 103 0 2 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 3 1988 101 0 - 1966 101 0 4 1959 100 0 - 1953 100 0 - 1934 100 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2017 101 0 - 1952 101 0 2 2021 100 0 - 2008 100 0 https://www2.nysmesonet.org/networks/nyc Corona 103 Astoria 100 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 100

The whole area had a top 6 warmest June. The one exception was JFK with strong sea breezes with the ocean still cooler. Parts of New England like Boston and Portland had their warmest June. Since the 30 year climate normals were updated to incorporate the record warmth of the last 10 years, departures won’t be as relevant a metric. That’s why we need to incorporate the actual temperatures and rankings to get a full picture of the warmth. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2021 76.2 0 - 2010 76.2 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1943 76.2 0 2 1966 75.4 0 3 1994 75.2 0 4 2010 74.7 0 - 1899 74.7 0 5 1984 74.5 0 6 2021 74.3 0 - 1957 74.3 0 - 1925 74.3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1943 76.4 0 2 2010 76.0 0 3 2020 75.9 0 4 2008 75.7 0 5 2021 75.6 0 - 1994 75.6 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 71.9 0 - 1999 71.9 0 2 2008 71.6 0 3 1994 71.3 0 4 2001 70.9 0 5 2020 70.7 0 6 2021 70.6 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2008 72.2 0 2 2010 71.8 0 3 1994 71.7 0 4 1957 71.6 0 5 2021 71.5 0

Updated for June 2021. 6….2021….EWR…..2…..NYC….6……LGA……5…..BDR….5…..ISP…..6

Newark had their second warmest June on record. Tied for the highest number of 100° days. New record for the most 95° days. Second place for June 90° days. Boston and Portland, Maine set the new record for warmest June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2021 76.2 0 - 2010 76.2 0 3 1993 75.8 0 4 1943 75.4 0 5 2008 75.3 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Missing Count 1 2021 2 0 - 1994 2 0 - 1943 2 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 2021 8 0 2 1943 7 0 3 1988 6 0 - 1984 6 0 - 1945 6 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 13 0 2 2021 12 0 3 1987 11 0 - 1943 11 0 4 2005 10 0 - 1994 10 0 - 1991 10 0 - 1988 10 0 - 1966 10 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 74.4 0 2 1976 73.4 0 3 1930 72.4 0 4 1994 71.9 0 5 1949 71.6 0 Time Series Summary for Portland Area, ME (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 68.9 0 2 2001 67.1 0 3 1884 67.0 0 4 1883 66.8 0 5 1930 66.5 0

The Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w The severe drought of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade coincided with record-breaking summer heatwaves that contributed to the socio-economic and ecological disaster over North America’s Great Plains. It remains unresolved to what extent these exceptional heatwaves, hotter than in historically forced coupled climate model simulations, were forced by sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and exacerbated through human-induced deterioration of land cover. Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself. This is the first time anyone has examined regional climate change in the central United States by directly comparing the influence of greenhouse gas emissions to agriculture, says Nathan Mueller, an earth systems scientist at the University of California (UC), Irvine, who was not involved with this study. It’s important to understand how agricultural activity can have “surprisingly strong” impacts on climate change, he says.

Boston tied their all -time June maximum temperature. Newark tied for the second day in a row. LGA missed by 1°. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOSTON/NORTON MA 0320 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT BOSTON MA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 FOR BOSTON MA TODAY JUN 30TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1945. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0444 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 102 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 99 SET IN 1964. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 0440 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT LAGUARDIA NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 WAS SET AT LAGUARDIA NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 97 SET IN 1964.

100° now at LGA with the more SW flow. 30 Jun 3:51 pm 100 65 32 SW

Those ground level stations are located in the local neighborhoods. The Corona Queens station has a high today so far of 101°. It’s avoiding the breeze of the water that is currently keeping LGA cooler.

We came close to the June all-time warmest 850 mb temperature on a 12z sounding today.

At least the day 15 EPS had the general theme of a ridge near the NW and NE correct. But we have seen how the magnitude of these ridges have been beating expectations. The models usually need to get to under 168 hrs to have a clue of how amplified the ridges will be. So the record breaking nature of this event really snuck up on the models in their better range.

The new NYC micronet is proving to be a valuable resource. We continue to see other stations in Queens with warmer high temperatures than LGA. The lows all stayed at 80° or above. LGA…………….…….98…81 Astoria………….….99…81 Corona……………..100..80 Queensbridge…..99…80

We tied two June monthly all-time heat records yesterday. The 102° at Newark was the June record high temperature. The 77° low at White Plains was the warmest low for June. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 102 1 - 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 77 1 - 1991 77 2 3 1984 75 0 - 1975 75 0 - 1952 75 0

Christopher Burt also did an analysis on the Oregon record high temperature. https://web.archive.org/web/20151012131142/http://www.wunderground.com/blog/weatherhistorian/comment.html?entrynum=19 OREGON RECORD HIGH TEMPERATUREThe record high for the state of Oregon has long been accepted as 119°F at Pendleton on Aug. 10, 1898. The NCDC site also mentions a similar reading at Prineville on July 29, 1898). First off, the Prineville reading can be dismissed immediately as unbelievable. Prineville is located in the center of the state near Redmond and Bend at an altitude of 2,860’. It is not a particularly warm location and its hottest temperature in modern records is just 107°F. There were many suspicious temperatures from Prineville during the summer of 1898.The Pendleton reading is more difficult to dismiss. Pendleton is located on a river plain about 30 miles south of the Columbia River. This valley is the hottest area in the state with 100°F+ temperatures common every summer. An undisputed temperature of 117°F has been measured at nearby Umatilla, Oregon on July 27, 1939. The problem with the Pendleton reading is that it was an estimated not measured reading and it would seem that estimated temperatures should probably not be considered official, especially for something as significant as a state weather record.According to the newspaper East Oregonian a report on Aug. 11, 1898 stated “…the government thermometer is only calculated to 115°, so that the 4° indicated above that had to be measured (estimated) by an observer.” This story is recounted in The Oregon Weather Book: A State of Extremes (p.64) by George H. Taylor and Raymond R. Hatton, Oregon State University Press, 1999.

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 305 PM EDT TUE JUN 29 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT NEWARK NJ... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 102 WAS SET AT NEWARK NJ TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 100 SET IN 1934 AND 1959. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED SHOULD THE HIGH TEMPERATURE CLIMB ANY HIGHER.

The 102° at Newark ties the June all-time high temperature. 29 Jun 2:40 pm 102 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 2021 102 0

99..72…109….on the 5 minute update. 29 Jun 1:05 pm 99 72

98°at Newark. 29 Jun 12:51 pm 98

97° now at Newark. 29 Jun 12:05 pm 97

Newark at 95° now. 29 Jun 11:20 am 95 72 47 W 5