bluewave

The average of all the airports and COOPs in the NY Coastal Climate division came in at 2nd place behind 2010. https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2021?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010 201006 - 201008 75.2°F 126 3.5°F 202006 - 202008 74.5°F 125 2.8°F 201606 - 201608 74.2°F 124 2.5°F 200506 - 200508 73.9°F 123 2.2°F 201106 - 201108 73.9°F 123 2.2°F 199906 - 199908 73.7°F 121 2.0°F 201206 - 201208 73.4°F 120 1.7°F 201806 - 201808 73.4°F 120 1.7°F 201906 - 201908 73.2°F 118 1.5°F 201506 - 201508 73.1°F 117 1.4°F 194906 - 194908 73.0°F 116 1.3°F 200606 - 200608 73.0°F 116 1.3°F 200206 - 200208 72.9°F 114 1.2°F 201306 - 201308 72.9°F 114 1.2°F

July 2020 at LGA doubled the number of 95 degree days that they had in 2010. Only July 2011 had more 95° days at Newark. Our airport stations are right in the water. So they are prone to local sea breezes. The dominant westerly flow in 2011shut down the Newark bay breeze so they set a record of 13 days above 95° that July. The ASOS at LGA is right on the water which gets cooling breezes with W to NW dry heat flow. Last summer was the opposite. Newark had SSE bay breezes while LGA got more hot S to SSW flow. Since LGA is North Shore location, it was much warmer than JFK which had cooling southerly sea breezes. That S to SW flow really heats up at LGA as it comes across Brooklyn and Queens and slightly downslopes off the moraine. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 2020 12 0 2 1999 11 0 3 2012 7 0 - 1955 7 0 4 2013 6 0 - 2010 6 0 - 2002 6 0 - 1991 6 0 - 1966 6 0 5 2019 5 0 - 1994 5 0 - 1977 5 0 - 1952 5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 2011 13 0 2 1993 12 0 3 2012 11 0 - 2010 11 0 4 2002 10 0 5 1999 9 0 - 1988 9 0 - 1966 9 0 - 1955 9 0

The average high temperature last summer at LGA just edged ahead of 2010 by a few tenths of a degree. LGA did better in 95°and 88° days than 2010. So it was able to overcome the 90° day deficit. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2020 86.9 0 2 2010 86.7 0 3 2016 86.3 0 4 1994 85.6 0 5 2005 85.3 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1955 14 0 2 2020 13 0 - 1999 13 0 3 2012 11 0 4 2010 10 0 - 1995 10 0 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jun through Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 88 Missing Count 1 2020 50 0 2 2010 48 0 3 1994 38 0 4 2019 37 0 - 2016 37 0 - 2002 37 0 5 2018 36 0

We are in new territory with the magnitude of these simultaneous PACNW and NE ridge amplifications. The PACNW and SW Canada have all-time heat and 500mb heights. The 500mb heights for us are near the highest for the month of June. Pretty extreme to be happening at the same time.

The most impressive calendar day all-time warm season record for the NE in recent years may have been the 80° low in BTV.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/12/191209112147.htm In a new study published today in Nature Climate Change, scientists show how specific wave patterns in the jet stream strongly increase the chance of co-occurring heatwaves in major food producing regions of Northern America, Western Europe and Asia. Their research finds that these simultaneous heatwaves significantly reduce crop production across those regions, creating the risk of multiple harvest failures and other far-reaching societal consequences, including social unrest. Lead author, Dr Kai Kornhuber from the University of Oxford's Department of Physics and Colombia University's Earth Institute, said: "Co-occurring heatwaves will become more severe in the coming decades if greenhouse gases are not mitigated. In an interconnected world, this can lead to food price spikes and have impacts on food availability even in remote regions not directly affected by heatwaves. "We found a 20-fold increase in the risk of simultaneous heatwaves in major crop producing regions when these global scale wind patterns are in place. Until now this was an underexplored vulnerability in the food system. We have found that during these events there actually is a global structure in the otherwise quite chaotic circulation. The bell can ring in multiple regions at once and the impacts of those specific interconnections were not quantified previously." Western North America, Western Europe and the Caspian Sea region are particularly susceptible to these atmospheric patterns that get heat and drought locked into one place simultaneously where they then affect crops production yields. Dr Dim Coumou, co-author from the Institute for Environmental Studies at VU Amsterdam, said: "Normally low harvests in one region are expected to be balanced out by good harvests elsewhere but these waves can cause reduced harvests in several important breadbaskets simultaneously, creating risks for global food production." Dr Elisabeth Vogel, co-author from Melbourne University, said: "During years in which two or more summer weeks featured the amplified wave pattern, cereal crop production was reduced by more than 10% in individual regions, and by 4% when averaged across all crop regions affected by the pattern." Dr Radley Horton, co-author from the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Colombia University, said: "If climate models are unable to reproduce these wave patterns, risk managers such as reinsurers and food security experts may face a blind spot when assessing how simultaneous heat waves and their impacts could change in a warming climate." The scientists conclude that a thorough understanding of what drives this jet stream behaviour could ultimately improve seasonal predictions of agricultural production at the global scale and inform risk assessments of harvest failures across multiple food-producing regions. https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2018/10/climate-change-and-extreme-summer-weather-events-the-future-is-still-in-our-hands/ In a follow-up article just published in the AAAS journal Science Advances, we look at future projections of QRA using state-of-the-art climate model simulations. It is important to note that that one cannot directly analyze QRA behavior in a climate model simulation for technical reasons. Most climate models are run at grid resolutions of a degree in latitude or more. The physics that characterizes QRA behavior of Rossby Waves faces a stiff challenge when it comes to climate models because it involves the second mathematical derivative of the jet stream wind with respect to latitude. Errors increase dramatically when you calculate a numerical first derivative from gridded fields and even more so when you calculate a second derivative. Our calculations show that the critical term mentioned above suffers from an average climate model error of more than 300% relative to observations. By contrast, the average error of the models is less than a percent when it comes to latitudinal temperature averages and still only about 30% when it comes to the latitudinal derivative of temperature. That last quantity is especially relevant because QRA events have been shown to have a well-defined signature in terms of the latitudinal variation in temperature in the lower atmosphere. Through a well-established meteorological relationship known as the thermal wind, the magnitude of the jet stream winds is in fact largely determined by the average of that quantity over the lower atmosphere. And as we have seen above, this quantity is well captured by the models (in large part because the change in temperature with latitude and how it responds to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations depends on physics that are well understood and well represented by the climate models). These findings, incidentally have broader implications. First of all, climate model-based studies used to assess the degree to which current extreme weather events can be attributed to climate change are likely underestimating the climate change influence. One model-based study for example suggested that climate change only doubled the likelihood of the extreme European heat wave this summer. As I commented at the time, that estimate is likely too low for it doesn’t account for the role that we happen to know, in this case, that QRA played in that event. Similarly, climate models used to project future changes in extreme weather behavior likely underestimate the impact that future climate changes could have on the incidence of persistent summer weather extremes like those we witnessed this past summer.

Newark is in track for its 2nd top 10 warmest June in a row. The coming heatwave will boost the ranking to potentially top 5. Looks like Boston will make a run on the #1 spot. So a continuation of the warmest summer departures and rankings going to our north in recent years. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1994 77.8 0 2 2010 76.2 0 3 1993 75.8 0 4 1943 75.4 0 5 2008 75.3 0 6 1984 75.0 0 7 1971 74.8 0 8 2005 74.6 0 - 1981 74.6 0 - 1973 74.6 0 9 2011 74.5 0 10 2021 74.4 6 - 2020 74.4 0 - 1987 74.4 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1976 73.4 0 2 2021 72.8 6 3 1930 72.4 0 4 1994 71.9 0 5 1949 71.6 0 6 1957 71.3 0 7 2001 71.1 0 - 1943 71.1 0 8 1999 71.0 0 9 1925 70.9 0 10 1983 70.7 0 - 1981 70.7 0

If we can pull off upper 90s to near 100° at the warm spots like Newark, then it will be a first when Seattle is so hot. Seattle 100° days and Newark high temperature Downtown Seattle…..6-9-55…..100°……Newark….58° Downtown Seattle…..7-16-41….100°…..Newark…77° Sea Tac…………………….7-20-94…..100°….Newark….94° Sea Tac…………………….7-29-09……103°….Newark…..85°

I believe this is the first time we had 594+ dm ridges in the PAC NW and NE at the same time. Notice how those values for either location are outside the 30 year climo. So a continuation of the unusual wavelength patterns that have become more common since 2010.

Our area may be able to challenge the June 500mb height record next week. Looks like the OKX record for June is near 595 dm. The PAC NW all-time record could fall with heights above 597 dm. It appears that these record breaking ridges that get stuck in place are related to areas of marine heatwaves and drought on land. We have seen frequent near to record WAR amplifications near the Northeast in recent years with the record SSTs east of New England. The Western US has also experienced record ridging in association with the warm blob off the West Coast and historic drought conditions. So these features seem to go together.

This higher humidity is part of our shift to a humid subtropical climate. 60-80 days a year with 70° dew points used to be normal for the Delmarva to Southern NJ. Now it has moved up to the NYC area.

This June is an unusual one for front-loaded heat.The 97° back on June 6th at Newark will be the max for the month. The remainder of the month will feature a Great Lakes Trough squeezed between the WAR and the Western Ridge.

Some of the long range climate models have the current megadrought out West expanding eastward to the Plains over this century. So if that projection is correct, then it would put quite a stress on US agriculture. A gradual desertification of the Plains would probably mean more frequent 100° days for our area in the summer. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082

Yeah, the Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself. This is the first time anyone has examined regional climate change in the central United States by directly comparing the influence of greenhouse gas emissions to agriculture, says Nathan Mueller, an earth systems scientist at the University of California (UC), Irvine, who was not involved with this study. It’s important to understand how agricultural activity can have “surprisingly strong” impacts on climate change, he says.

There are always going to be sparks that can start wildfires. But with the historic dry conditions, they are growing to record proportions. That’s really the main problem.

Yeah, the warming and drying trend out West is pretty extreme.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/langley/joint-nasa-noaa-study-finds-earths-energy-imbalance-has-doubled Researchers have found that Earth’s energy imbalance approximately doubled during the 14-year period from 2005 to 2019. Earth's climate is determined by a delicate balance between how much of the Sun's radiative energy is absorbed in the atmosphere and at the surface and how much thermal infrared radiation Earth emits to space. A positive energy imbalance means the Earth system is gaining energy, causing the planet to heat up. The doubling of the energy imbalance is the topic of a recent study, the results of which were published June 15 in Geophysical Research Letters. Scientists at NASA and NOAA compared data from two independent measurements. NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) suite of satellite sensors measure how much energy enters and leaves Earth's system. In addition, data from a global array of ocean floats, called Argo, enable an accurate estimate of the rate at which the world’s oceans are heating up. Since approximately 90 percent of the excess energy from an energy imbalance ends up in the ocean, the overall trends of incoming and outgoing radiation should broadly agree with changes in ocean heat content. "The two very independent ways of looking at changes in Earth's energy imbalance are in really, really good agreement, and they're both showing this very large trend, which gives us a lot of confidence that what we're seeing is a real phenomenon and not just an instrumental artifact, " said Norman Loeb, lead author for the study and principal investigator for CERES at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia. "The trends we found were quite alarming in a sense." Increases in emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane due to human activity trap heat in the atmosphere, capturing outgoing radiation that would otherwise escape into space. The warming drives other changes, such as snow and ice melt, and increased water vapor and cloud changes that can further enhance the warming. Earth’s energy imbalance is the net effect of all these factors. In order to determine the primary factors driving the imbalance, the investigators used a method that looked at changes in clouds, water vapor, combined contributions from trace gases and the output of light from the Sun, surface albedo (the amount of light reflected by the Earth's surface), tiny atmospheric particles called aerosols, and changes in surface and atmospheric temperature distributions. The study finds that the doubling of the imbalance is partially the result an increase in greenhouse gases due to human activity, also known as anthropogenic forcing, along with increases in water vapor are trapping more outgoing longwave radiation, further contributing to Earth’s energy imbalance. Additionally, the related decrease in clouds and sea ice lead to more absorption of solar energy. The researchers also found that a flip of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from a cool phase to a warm phase likely played a major role in the intensification of the energy imbalance. The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variability. Its fingerprint includes a massive wedge of water in the eastern Pacific that goes through cool and warm phases. This naturally occurring internal variability in the Earth system can have far-reaching effects on weather and climate. An intensely warm PDO phase that began around 2014 and continued until 2020 caused a widespread reduction in cloud coverage over the ocean and a corresponding increase in the absorption of solar radiation. "It's likely a mix of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability," said Loeb. "And over this period they're both causing warming, which leads to a fairly large change in Earth's energy imbalance. The magnitude of the increase is unprecedented." Loeb cautions that the study is only a snapshot relative to long-term climate change, and that it's not possible to predict with any certainty what the coming decades might look like for the balance of Earth's energy budget. The study does conclude, however, that unless the rate of heat uptake subsides, greater changes in climate than are already occurring should be expected. "The lengthening and highly complementary records from Argo and CERES have allowed us both to pin down Earth’s energy imbalance with increasing accuracy, and to study its variations and trends with increasing insight, as time goes on." said Gregory Johnson, co-author on the study and physical oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle, Washington. "Observing the magnitude and variations of this energy imbalance are vital to understanding Earth’s changing climate." Joe Atkinson NASA's Langley Research Center Last Updated: Jun 16, 2021 Editor: Joe Atkinson

Yeah, that was the first summer with such high dew points and heat indices.

Pretty extreme to see all-time record heat tied so early in the season.

1983 was our highest dew point summer until it was finally surpassed in 2018 and 2019.

While it was wet here in 1983, the source region for all the heat just to our west was dry.

JFK set its record for 95° days back in 2010 at 10. They also tied for most 100° days at 3. The rainfall pattern in JJA 2010 was wet in the West and Central US and dry in the East. So we needed the dry pattern with more westerly flow to set all those heat records. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 2010 10 0 2 1963 8 0 3 2002 7 0 - 1999 7 0 - 1983 7 0 4 2013 6 0 - 1949 6 0 5 2012 5 0 - 1966 5 0 - 1955 5 2 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Missing Count 1 2010 3 0 - 1966 3 0 2 2011 2 0 - 1993 2 0 - 1983 2 0 - 1948 2 198 3 2013 1 0 - 1999 1 0 - 1972 1 0 - 1963 1 0 - 1957 1 1