bluewave

Looks like we can finally see some -AO -NAO blocking in late March as the SPV finally weakens for the season.

Those would be record breaking low pressure values for that part of Canada.

Quick warm up next week on the EPS following the cold and snow potential this weekend. But it doesn’t look like there will be record warmth like we saw with the deep SW flow this week. More potential for the highs to build east of New England with onshore influence at times. March 14-21 EPS Temperature departures Surface pressure anomalies big high east of New England

BGM needs to do well with this in order to avoid a top 10 lowest snowfall season. Time Series Summary for BINGHAMTON (GREATER AP), NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to May 31 Missing Count 1 2016-05-31 32.0 0 2 2012-05-31 43.5 0 3 1989-05-31 47.8 0 4 1969-05-31 52.0 0 5 1995-05-31 52.8 0 6 2022-05-31 54.6 83 7 1992-05-31 56.0 0 8 1980-05-31 56.8 0 9 1981-05-31 59.3 0 10 1985-05-31 62.5 0

This was the first time between March 1-10 that Newark had measurable snow 2 days after reaching 75°+. The previous record was 3 days set in 1972. 3rd place goes to 1976 which took 4 days. So a continuation of the snow and record warmth close together theme that has become more common here. NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 2022 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 48 30 39.0 0.7 26 0 T 0.0 0 2 54 40 47.0 8.5 18 0 0.00 0.0 0 3 46 25 35.5 -3.3 29 0 0.06 0.0 0 4 39 20 29.5 -9.6 35 0 0.00 0.0 0 5 46 26 36.0 -3.3 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 6 69 44 56.5 16.9 8 0 0.04 0.0 0 7 76 50 63.0 23.2 2 0 0.01 0.0 0 8 50 38 44.0 3.9 21 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 42 33 37.5 -2.9 27 0 0.60 0.5 0 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 1972 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 75 42 58.5 20.2 6 0 0.00 0.0 0 2 78 58 68.0 29.5 0 3 0.00 0.0 0 3 65 26 45.5 6.7 19 0 0.73 T 0 4 35 20 27.5 -11.6 37 0 T T 0 5 43 27 35.0 -4.3 30 0 0.18 0.2 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Daily Data For a Month March 1976 Day MaxT MinT AvgT Dprt HDD CDD Pcpn Snow Dpth 1 59 43 51.0 12.7 14 0 0.00 0.0 0 2 43 33 38.0 -0.5 27 0 0.03 0.0 0 3 37 30 33.5 -5.3 31 0 T 0.0 0 4 48 34 41.0 1.9 24 0 0.12 0.0 0 5 75 44 59.5 20.2 5 0 0.02 0.0 0 6 62 35 48.5 8.9 16 0 0.00 0.0 0 7 52 31 41.5 1.7 23 0 0.00 0.0 0 8 42 30 36.0 -4.1 29 0 0.00 0.0 0 9 30 25 27.5 -12.9 37 0 0.28 3.8 0

This is the 7th time in the last 10 years that ISP had more snow in March than December. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSOKX&e=202203091826 Islip Airport 1.2 in 0100 PM 03/09 Official NWS Obs Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season Mean 0.9 3.0 15.6 13.0 7.9 0.6 40.9 2021-2022 T 0.3 31.8 3.3 1.2 M 36.6 2020-2021 0.0 7.5 1.1 24.9 T T 33.5 2019-2020 0.1 4.2 2.5 0.0 T T 6.8 2018-2019 4.3 T 0.9 3.5 4.1 T 12.8 2017-2018 T 6.0 22.0 1.4 31.9 4.6 65.9 2016-2017 T 3.2 14.0 14.7 7.4 T 39.3 2015-2016 0.0 T 24.8 13.2 3.2 0.2 41.4 2014-2015 T 0.4 30.2 13.4 19.7 0.0 63.7 2013-2014 0.3 8.1 25.2 24.5 5.4 0.2 63.7 2012-2013 4.2 0.6 3.3 31.4 7.4 0.0 46.9

Snow just changed to sleet here in SW Suffolk and 35°.

34° on the South Shore with snow sticking on the colder surfaces.

Quarter sized flakes now sticking on the colder surfaces and 35° here in SW Suffolk.

Just switched over to giant flakes here and still 36° in SW Suffolk.

36° here in SW Suffolk with rain.

Away from the shore. I am near the GSB in SW Suffolk and it’s 36° with light rain. Snowing at FRG and ISP. Jones Beach N/A 37 N/A N/A E10G16 N/A WCI 30 Wantagh N/A 36 34 93 E9 N/A WCI 29 Hempstead NOT AVBL Matinecock Pt N/A 36 N/A N/A SE3 N/A Farmingdale LGT SNOW 34 32 92 SE6 30.13F FOG WCI 29 MacArthur/ISP LGT SNOW 33 32 96 SE7 30.12F FOG WCI 27

36° with light rain here in SW Suffolk.

The very impressive La Niña background state continues. So instead of weakening into the spring like usual, it’s actually getting stronger again. This has lead to the models correcting stronger on the SE Ridge this month. The brief Arctic shot behind the intense weekend storm will be a bit of an outlier for the warmer than average SE Ridge pattern.

The 12z EPS mean is stronger and further west than the OP. With such an amped system and no blocking, this could come further west in future runs. The strong winds may be the big story for the coast with such a deep low pressure.

Yeah, March 2012 was all about consistently above normal temperatures with Newark going +9.2. But there were only 2 daily record high temperatures and the monthly high only reaching 79°. The warm up in late March last year was more impressive with Newark reaching 84°. The most extreme warmth in March 2012 went to our west. International falls was +14.6 for there warmest March. I believe it was the only time that a U.S. station recorded 10 record daily high temperatures in a row. But several of the days were already surpassed in recent years. International Falls Area, MNPeriod of record: 1897-01-15 through 2022-03-07 3/13 59 in 2016 55 in 2012 54 in 1995+ 3/14 60 in 2016 57 in 2012 54 in 2010+ 3/15 65 in 2015 57 in 2012 57 in 2009+ 3/16 71 in 2012 58 in 2009 57 in 2003 3/17 77 in 2012 55 in 1968 54 in 2010 3/18 79 in 2012 66 in 1918 57 in 2010 3/19 78 in 2012 60 in 1918 57 in 2021 3/20 64 in 2021 61 in 2012 61 in 1987 3/21 69 in 2012 57 in 2021 56 in 1987 3/22 72 in 2012 62 in 2000 56 in 2003

Yeah, it was the beginning of our all or nothing type snowfall patterns which have become more common since the 90s. Over 50” and under 20” years bolded Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 1990-1991 0.0 0.0 7.2 8.4 9.1 0.2 0.0 24.9 1991-1992 0.0 T 0.7 1.5 1.0 9.4 T 12.6 1992-1993 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 10.7 11.9 0.0 24.5 1993-1994 0.0 T 6.9 12.0 26.4 8.1 0.0 53.4 1994-1995 0.0 T T 0.2 11.6 T T 11.8 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3

While March 2012 was our warmest March on record, the monthly highest temperature wasn’t that impressive. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1945 89 0 2 1998 86 0 - 1990 86 0 3 2021 84 0 - 1985 84 0 - 1977 84 0 4 1989 83 0 - 1986 83 0 5 2016 82 0 - 1938 82 0 6 2020 80 0 - 2011 80 0 - 2007 80 0 - 1962 80 0 - 1946 80 0 7 2012 79 0 - 1968 79 0 - 1963 79 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Mar Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2012 51.3 0 2 1945 50.6 0 3 2016 49.1 0 4 1946 48.8 0 5 1973 48.6 0 6 2010 48.2 0 7 2020 47.9 0 8 2000 47.8 0 9 1977 46.7 0 10 1979 46.2 0 11 2021 45.6 0

Very warm first week of March across the area with Newark at +4.7. The high of 76 was the 2nd warmest on record for the first week of March. It’s currently the 2nd warmest start to March since 2010. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 7 Missing Count 1 1972-03-07 78 0 2 2022-03-07 76 0 3 1976-03-07 75 0 - 1964-03-07 75 0 - 1946-03-07 75 0 4 2017-03-07 73 0 - 1961-03-07 73 0 5 2009-03-07 72 0 - 1987-03-07 72 0 - 1974-03-07 72 0 6 1991-03-07 71 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Mar 1 to Mar 7 Missing Count 1 2020-03-07 45.3 0 2 2022-03-07 43.8 0 3 2011-03-07 42.6 0 4 2010-03-07 42.3 0 5 2012-03-07 41.9 0 6 2018-03-07 41.4 0 7 2017-03-07 39.9 0 8 2016-03-07 39.3 0 9 2013-03-07 37.9 0 10 2021-03-07 34.8 0 11 2019-03-07 29.9 0 12 2014-03-07 28.2 0 13 2015-03-07 28.1 0

70 mph peak gust in PA.

It will be interesting to see if this can go negative tilt fast enough for Northern New England to challenge their March low pressure records. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html

The Euro is going for something similar to last summer. Zonal ridge with centers east of New England and near the PAC NW. So a mix of heat and higher dew points. JJA 2022 forecast JJA 2021 forecast from March 2021 Verification JJA 2021

The models lost the blocking that they were showing for mid-March from Alaska to Northern Greenland. New Mar 14-21 Old run for Mar 14-21

Warmer than average March for our area on the extended EPS as the SE Ridge dominates. Mar 7-14 Mar 14-21 Mar 21-28

Imagine how many more record highs NYC would have during the warm season if they properly maintained that site. As soon as the leaves drop the record highs arrive. That’s why there were more 90° days before the trees over grew the site in the 1990s. Today is the 4th record high or tie since December. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 109 PM EST MON MAR 7 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TIED SO FAR TODAY AT CENTRAL PARK NY... THE TEMPERATURE AT CENTRAL PARK NY REACHED 74 JUST AFTER 1 PM. THIS TIES THE RECORD OF 74 LAST SET IN 1946. THIS RECORD REPORT WILL BE UPDATED LATER TODAY WITH THE FINAL HIGH TEMPERATURE. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 456 PM EST SUN MAR 06 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 68 SET IN 1935. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 201 PM EST THU FEB 17 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 68 WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 67 SET IN 1976. AN UPDATE WILL BE SENT IF A HIGHER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 120 AM EST SUN DEC 12 2021 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 WAS SET AT CENTRAL PARK NY YESTERDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 64 SET IN 1879.