bluewave

The North Atlantic was near the warmest on record for the summer into the early fall. So the traditional AMO phases are getting overpowered by the steady warming of the North Atlantic. It’s just one solid block of warmth these days.

The sea breeze front was to our north this summer so the 100s in NYC were limited interior Brooklyn and Queens. Same goes for the higher number of 90° days. We need westerly flow like in 2010 to get a record number of 90s and 100s for our area. Even without a record number of 90s and 100s, the average summer high finished behind 2010. So plenty of days in the upper 80s to boost the highs. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 85.4 0 2 2022 83.8 0 - 2016 83.8 0 - 2011 83.8 0 3 2015 83.3 0 4 2020 83.2 0 - 1971 83.2 0 5 1991 83.1 0 - 1983 83.1 0 - 1949 83.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 83.4 0 2 1999 83.3 0 3 2022 83.0 0 4 2016 82.9 0 5 1966 82.7 0 6 2020 82.4 0 - 1991 82.4 0 7 2011 82.3 0 8 2019 82.0 0 9 2012 81.6 0 10 2018 81.5 0 - 2005 81.5 0

NJ came close to the all-time record number of 90° and 100° days this summer. The average summer high temperature in NJ was 2nd warmest on record at 86.5°. The minimums were further down on the list due to the drier conditions and lower dewpoints. Data for January 1, 2022 through October 2, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 54 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 53 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 50 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 49 Newark Area ThreadEx 49 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 46 HARRISON COOP 44 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 43 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 43 CANOE BROOK COOP 42 ESTELL MANOR COOP 41 Data for January 1, 2022 through October 2, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 FREEHOLD-MARLBORO COOP 6 NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 6 Newark Area ThreadEx 6 SOMERSET AIRPORT WBAN 5 CANOE BROOK COOP 4 HARRISON COOP 4 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 3 LONG BRANCH-OAKHURST COOP 2 HIGHTSTOWN 2 W COOP 2 NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE COOP 1 New Brunswick Area ThreadEx 1 201006 - 201008 86.5°F 128 202206 - 202208 86.0°F 127 201606 - 201608 85.7°F 126 199906 - 199908 85.6°F 125 202006 - 202008 85.4°F 12 202006 - 202008 65.1°F 128 201006 - 201008 64.9°F 127 200506 - 200508 64.8°F 126 202106 - 202108 64.5°F 125 201806 - 201808 64.3°F 124 201106 - 201108 64.1°F 123 201606 - 201608 64.1°F 123 201906 - 201908 64.1°F 123 202206 - 202208 64.1°F 123

High pressure hanging tough today for areas north of l-78. This almost looks like a winter confluence situation.Tough for the moisture to advance further north into all that dry air.

The sun is out here in SW Suffolk with just some drizzle.

It looks like October will be starting out with a much cooler pattern than recent years. Last October was the warmest on record and 2019 featured the all-time warmest monthly high. So we have a good chance at avoiding another 60°+ October. La Ninas like this year are typically pretty warm here in October. So maybe this means that we see another winter with competing influences that can push back against the typical Niña pattern at times. Typical warm La Nina warm October since 2000 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 64.4 0 2 2017 63.8 0 3 2007 63.5 0 4 1971 63.1 0 5 1990 62.4 0 6 1984 62.2 0 7 1949 61.6 0 8 1963 61.2 0 9 1995 61.0 0 - 1947 61.0 0 10 2019 60.4 0 - 1954 60.4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2019 96 0 2 1941 93 0 3 1949 92 0 4 1959 91 0 5 1939 90 0 - 1938 90 0

Rapid intensification has become the new normal in recent years with the steadily warming SSTs.

Nice improvements from the 0z Euro and GEM getting 2.00” to Long Island now.

Euro and GEM continuing with the sharp cutoff to the northern extent of Ian’s moisture. Blocking still looks pretty strong on both models. We’ll have to refine forecast after later runs to see exactly how far north the rains make it.

Even though temperatures have cooled off over the last week, areas from EWR to LGA continue to average near 70° for the month. This has been a common occurrence since 2010. But at least we will step down from all the record warmth in recent months. So less warm is the new cool as the late month cooldown prevented another top 10 warmest month. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1961 74.5 0 2 2005 73.5 0 3 2015 73.4 0 4 2021 72.5 0 5 2016 71.8 0 - 1971 71.8 0 6 2010 71.6 0 7 1959 71.5 0 8 2018 71.4 0 9 2011 71.2 0 10 1973 71.0 0 - 1931 71.0 0 11 2022 70.9 3 - 2017 70.9 0 12 2019 70.8 0 - 1980 70.8 0 13 1968 70.7 0 14 1983 70.6 0 - 1970 70.6 0 15 2002 70.5 0 16 1998 70.3 0 17 1985 70.2 0 18 2007 70.1 0

All the guidance has a sharp cutoff to Ian’s rainfall just to our south as blocking Canadian high pressure dominates.

The record blocking will result in a cooler pattern into next weekend across the area. So Ian is expected to stall out near the Gulf Coast of Florida. This is a continuation of needing record blocking just to get cooler than average temperatures around here.

The OP Euro is finally coming into line with the EPS, GEM, and GFS on the slower track of Ian. The impressive Fiona wave break is setting up a strong blocking pattern to the north. So we’ll have to see how much moisture can make into our region after the system weakens. New run Old run

The first 45° of the season came in a bit earlier than the recent average since 2010 at Islip. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kisp 45 First/Last Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 05-03 (2015) 09-18 (2013) 111 Mean 05-15 10-04 141 Maximum 06-01 (2020) 10-18 (2021) 159 2022 05-09 (2022) 44 09-24(2022) 45 - 2021 05-28 (2021) 44 10-18 (2021) 45 142 2020 06-01 (2020) 44 09-21 (2020) 44 111 2019 05-15 (2019) 45 10-05 (2019) 42 142 2018 05-09 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 42 156 2017 05-21 (2017) 43 10-17 (2017) 40 148 2016 05-20 (2016) 45 10-11 (2016) 39 143 2015 05-03 (2015) 44 10-10 (2015) 44 159 2014 05-03 (2014) 44 09-23 (2014) 45 142 2013 05-27 (2013) 43 09-18 (2013) 44 113 2012 05-12 (2012) 43 09-25 (2012) 44 135 2011 05-06 (2011) 38 10-06 (2011) 40 152 2010 05-13 (2010) 38 10-09 (2010) 44 148

Yeah, Sandy would have been stronger had it occurred a month earlier with a record warm pool like this.

Fiona will probably be the strongest storm to hit Nova Scotia.

Newark has a shot at 40s tomorrow am which would be early by recent standards. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference Minimum 05-01 (2018) 09-02 (2017) 110 Mean 05-16 09-28 134 Maximum 06-02 (2015) 10-18 (2021) 164 2021 05-30 (2021) 48 10-18 (2021) 46 140 2020 05-21 (2020) 47 09-19 (2020) 48 120 2019 05-15 (2019) 45 09-19 (2019) 49 126 2018 05-01 (2018) 44 10-13 (2018) 47 164 2017 05-14 (2017) 44 09-02 (2017) 49 110 2016 05-16 (2016) 40 10-10 (2016) 47 146 2015 06-02 (2015) 49 10-02 (2015) 48 121 2014 05-07 (2014) 47 10-05 (2014) 44 150 2013 05-27 (2013) 46 09-15 (2013) 48 110 2012 05-11 (2012) 48 09-25 (2012) 48 136 2011 05-06 (2011) 44 10-02 (2011) 49 148 2010 05-13 (2010) 43 10-03 (2010) 49 142

Most of the guidance like the EPS and GEM have a slower track north with Hermine. So the OP Euro seems to be on its own at 0z The other models have Hermine missing the first trough and stalling out near Florida. The GEM may be the middle ground with Herimine finally getting lifted north with the second trough next weekend. Hopefully, we can eventually get some rain from this.

The OP Euro is a faster outlier with the track of the tropical system next week. Several EPS members stall the system near the Southeast as blocking builds to the north. So the strength of the blocking will determine if we can get a decent rain or not.

Impressive Fiona wave break will set up an strong blocking pattern for the rest of the month. First lows near 50° in NYC by Saturday. Then the next tropical system gets stuck underneath strong Canadian high pressure to the north. So that my be our best shot at soaking rains around the area depending on the exact track.

Looks like Canadian high pressure will dominate later in the month. So plenty of easterly flow in the forecast. Any tropical moisture coming underneath will help us out.

The Fiona wave break will produce a record 590dm ridge south of Greenland. So Friday into Saturday looks like the first actual fall weather of the season. Lows near 50° in NYC and highs not getting out of the 60s for a day or two. We continue to need record blocking just to get some cooler weather around here.

That’s a given but the GEM and Euro were just as hot. The blocking verified stronger. So we get a +10 day instead of +15 to +20. That’s what passes for cooler in our warming climate. Almanac for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ September 19, 2022 Daily Data Observed Normal Record Highest Record Lowest Max Temperature M 77 93 in 1983 62 in 1987 Min Temperature M 60 70 in 2016 44 in 1959

It looks like the heat may peak today in the upper 80s instead of the mid 90s which was forecast last week. So I guess this counts as making slow progress toward fall. NYC could see the first lower 50s of the season by next weekend as a stronger blocking pattern sets up. New run for today Old run much warmer Cool down for later in week

The AWB produces a near record 500mb height anomaly just south of Greenland. So the -NAO could have some lasting power. It could be another case of needing record blocking to get some cooler to closer to normal temperatures around here.