bluewave

While I usually don’t look at the point and clicks, the Euro forecast from yesterday had sunny and 80s for today. 12z Euro Tuesday forecast for today

The RGEM just got a big upgrade in December 2021 while the NAM development was frozen in 2017. NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance.

Thursday looks like a repeat of a few weeks ago when the NAM tried to take the MCS north of us. All the other guidance was further south across our area. So it’s no surprise that we get a nice round of morning convection on the HRRR and RGEM. Maybe we can sneak in a few afternoon 80s with enough clearing.

Interesting how the deeper low for early Thursday is leading to a weaker storm than originally forecast for the weekend. New runs Old runs

The ENSO forecasts from the various models are indicating a continuation of the La Niña background state into the fall. But our winter sensible weather always comes down to how much blocking we get. So we’ll probably have to wait at least another year for the fabled El Niño modoki.

That’s why vendors shouldn’t be extending those operational raw GFS temperature charts beyond 5-7 days. It’s much better to use ensembles when looking at week 2 patterns. Notice how the OP GFS forecast skill falls way below the ensemble means after day 7. The other problem is that there is no bias correction for the NYC ASOS raw temperature forecasts tucked in under the dense tree growth. The raw model doesn’t know that the ASOS is in deep shade during peak heating hours. So the raw GFS forecasts are always going to be unrealistically high for NYC. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/ EPS is highest scoring long range ensemble forecast. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gefs/ops/geo/

Looks like the major heat will remain to our west the next few weeks. So very comfortable temperatures for the area. The upper 90s record heat at the end of May will remain the warmest temperatures for a while.

Latest extended EPS expands the ridge from the Rockies to the Plains this month. Has troughs near the Pacific Northwest and New England. So a different 500mb pattern than last June. Jun 6-13 Jun 13-20 Jun 21-27 Jun 2021

Same theme this month with the marine influence keeping areas east of the Hudson cooler. PHL…+4.4 EWR…+3.2 NYC….+0.4 HPN…+0.4 LGA….-0.6 JFK….-0.7 BDR….-1.2 ISP…...0.0

Yeah, 1993 was the last time that NYC had 3 days in a row reaching 100°. The new ASOS was installed in November 1995. That’s around the time that the tree growth began to block the sensors. So NYC hasn’t been able to get 3 consecutive 100° days since then due to the cool in the deep shade and the cooling influence of the leaf transpiration. https://www.nytimes.com/1993/07/11/nyregion/heat-wave-records-rewritten-as-east-bakes-and-midwest-soaks.html For the third consecutive day, temperatures in New York City exceeded 100 degrees -- something that had not happened since 1948. Just before 3 P.M. Central Park recorded 102 degrees, tying the record for the day, set in 1936. At Newark International Airport, it reached a record 105, the fourth straight day of triple-digit heat recorded there.

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. But surrounding sites were nearly as hot during the July heatwave. So it must have been a drought feedback process that allowed for so many 100°+ temperatures. Data for WAYNE, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Precipitation 1993-07-04 96 0.00 1993-07-05 0.00 1993-07-06 0.00 1993-07-07 98 0.00 1993-07-08 102 0.00 1993-07-09 102 0.00 1993-07-10 102 0.00 1993-07-11 98 T 1993-07-12 104 0.00 1993-07-13 94 0.00 1993-07-14 98 0.00 1993-07-15 94 0.12 Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Precipitation 1993-07-04 97 0.00 1993-07-05 91 0.00 1993-07-06 87 0.00 1993-07-07 103 0.00 1993-07-08 105 0.00 1993-07-09 104 0.00 1993-07-10 105 0.00 1993-07-11 99 0.00 1993-07-12 97 0.00 1993-07-13 98 0.00 1993-07-14 90 0.44 1993-07-15 91 0.00 1993-07-16 91 0.00 Daily Data for July 7, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 103 CT DANBURY COOP 102 NJ LODI COOP 100 Daily Data for July 8, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 103 NJ WAYNE COOP 102 NJ LODI COOP 101 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 100 CT DANBURY COOP 100 Daily Data for July 9, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 104 NJ WAYNE COOP 102 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 101 NJ LODI COOP 101 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 101 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 100 NY NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN COOP 100 Daily Data for July 10, 1993 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Max Temperature NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 105 CT DANBURY COOP 103 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 102 NJ LODI COOP 102 NJ WAYNE COOP 102 NY MINEOLA COOP 100 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 100 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 100

Yeah, 1993 was a very strong sea breeze summer at JFK. It briefly relaxed in early July allowing JFK to reach 100° a few times. EWR was much warmer than all the other stations with dominant SW to W flow there. 1993 EWR Jun…+3.2 Jul….+4.8 Aug…+2.8 JFK Jun….+1.1 Jul….+3.4 Aug…+0.3

JFK only had 1 heatwave lasting 5 days that summer with the two consecutive 100° days in July. All the other 90° days were brief warm ups. Newark had 5 heatwaves spread out through the whole summer. Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Dates Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 1993-01-01 to 1993-12-31 1 5 1993-07-08 through 1993-07-12 2 1 1993-09-03 through 1993-09-03 - 1 1993-09-01 through 1993-09-01 - 1 1993-08-26 through 1993-08-26 - 1 1993-08-04 through 1993-08-04 - 1 1993-07-20 through 1993-07-20 - 1 1993-07-15 through 1993-07-15 - 1 1993-07-04 through 1993-07-04 Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Dates 1 10 1993-07-07 through 1993-07-16 2 9 1993-07-27 through 1993-08-04 3 5 1993-08-25 through 1993-08-29 4 3 1993-07-23 through 1993-07-25 - 3 1993-06-24 through 1993-06-26

The Euro seasonal has a drought feedback ridge to our west this summer. Keeps a stalled out frontal zone along the East Coast. Deep tropical moisture feed through our area with plenty of rain and high dewpoints. Very active hurricane season for the Atlantic with near 20 named storms.

We have warm and cool -AO patterns. The record warmth at end of May linked up with the SE Ridge. So it was more a south based block like the winter of 2021. The record -AO has been undercut by a cooler trough in early June.

2010 was in a class by itself for record heat. JFK had double the number of 90° it had in 1955. While 1993 was a record hot summer around Newark, it was much cooler at JFK. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 3 - 1955 16 2 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 - 1952 14 0 9 2011 13 0 - 1993 13 0 - 1984 13 0 - 1977 13 0 - 1970 13 0 - 1969 13 0 - 1963 13 0 10 2020 12 0 - 2015 12 0 - 2006 12 0 - 2003 12 0 - 1978 12 0 - 1968 12 0 - 1953 12 0

This year continues the big weather swings theme. Record warmth in December was followed by our coldest January in several winters. Then a warm up in February into March with record high temperatures and an early bloom. Followed by the late March hard freeze. Then we experienced a record Northeast ridge in May which was replaced by a trough into mid-June. So it’s hard to look at past analogs for clues to the future since these current patterns are more extreme.

We can’t compare pre 1990s heat records in NYC to the current ones due to the extensive tree growth artificially lowering high temperature records. The summer of 1955 was 5th highest at Newark for 95° days. It ranked 12th highest for total number of 90° days. It was only 18th warmest for mean maximum temperature at Newark. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1993 25 0 2 2010 21 0 3 1988 20 0 - 1944 20 0 4 2021 18 0 5 2012 17 0 - 2011 17 0 - 2002 17 0 - 1955 17 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 12 1955 32 0 - 1953 32 0 - 1943 32 - - - Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1993 88.8 0 2 2010 87.9 0 3 1994 87.6 0 4 2021 87.3 0 5 2011 87.0 0 - 1988 87.0 0 6 1966 86.8 0 7 2016 86.6 0 - 1949 86.6 0 8 2020 86.5 0 9 2005 86.3 0 - 1944 86.3 0 10 1999 86.1 0 - 1995 86.1 0 - 1991 86.1 0 11 1983 86.0 0 12 2012 85.9 0 13 2002 85.8 0 14 2008 85.4 0 - 1987 85.4 0 - 1943 85.4 0 15 1973 85.3 0 16 2018 85.2 0 - 2015 85.2 0 17 2019 85.0 0 - 1953 85.0 0 18 2006 84.9 0 - 1952 84.9 0 19 1955 84.8 0

The 1955 and 1977 summers weren’t really that hot compared to recent standards. But the 1955 was much warmer than 1977. The summer of 1977 was mostly remembered for the famous 9 day heatwave in mid-July. JJA 1977 only finished +0.6 relative to that cooler era.

We are shifting the persistent June over the top warm pattern of the last 5 years. The record heat in the Upper Plains to Great Lakes is getting replaced by a cooler trough. So lower chances of any extended 90° heat for a while.

Another heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk. So the first two days of a June produced heavy downpours. The blocking and Great Lakes trough continues for the next few weeks on the EPS. So more chances for convection from time to time.

Modoki El Niño’s with 50” of snow and colder than average winters have become an endangered species for Central Park.

The Alden difax model forecast charts low resolution back in the 80s was like trying to read an etch a sketch. Then you had the paper jams to deal with. Plus the models were really primitive compared to what we have today. By the 90s, the Euro really improved and scored a big win with the January 1996 blizzard. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS RESOLUTION OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES BY SATURDAY JANUARY 6 (DAY 3) AND INTO THE PLAINS ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4). THE ECMWF IS SHOWING THE MOST DEFINITION TO THIS SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS A 1010 MB LOW MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GA/AL BORDER ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4) AND BOMBING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST (984 MB) BY MON JANUARY 8 (DAY 5). THE MRF IS MUCH MORE FRAGMENTED AND POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THIS TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENTLY HAS ONLY A WEAK 1014 MB WAVE SHEARING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST ON SUN JANUARY 7 (DAY 4). THE RESOLUTION OF SHORT WAVES IN THE BASE OF TROUGHS IS AN AREA THE MRF OFTEN DOES A POOR JOB WITH....WE ARE TRENDING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF."

Back In the colder era, all previous 98°+Mays like this year at Newark were the highest temperature of the whole year. So that used to be a front-loaded heat signal. Last year the highest temperature of the season was in June. Then the monsoon came and we had a rare near seasonable July. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year May Jun Jul Aug Sep Season 1996 99 92 91 92 92 99 2022 98 71 M M M 98 1992 98 90 97 95 90 98 1987 98 96 97 97 87 98 1962 98 94 96 93 87 98 Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year May Jun Jul Aug Sep Season 2021 96 103 97 99 91 103 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 2021 78.8 0 2020 80.8 0 2019 80.6 0 2018 78.2 0 2017 77.3 0 2016 79.9 0 2015 79.0 0 2014 77.0 0 2013 80.9 0 2012 80.8 0 2011 82.7 0 2010 82.3 0

This -AO block is the 2nd strongest on record for the month of June. It came in just behind the all-time June record of -2.921 set in 1992. Hopefully, some of this rubs off on next winter like it did after June 2009. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv 02Jun2022 -2.6465 https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii -2.921….6-29-92 -2.646….6-2-22 -2.610…..6-25-87 -2.510…..6-7-55 -2.470…..6-8-51 -2.406…..6-29-09