bluewave

It’s pretty rare to tie a record high and low only a few days apart. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH 0535 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2022 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 WAS SET AT AKRON CANTON OH TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 94 SET IN 1925. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH 835 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2022 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TIED AT AKRON-CANTON AT 607 AM EDT, AKRON-CANTON REGIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 46 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1947.

It looks like the 95° last week at Newark has a good chance of being the warmest high of the month. This is a continuation of past years when Newark reached 98°or warmer in May. All the June maximum temperatures in those years were lower.The May high temperature was actually the warmest of the entire season. But that was in a cooler climate era. So it will be interesting to see what the maximum temperature is this year. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year May Jun Jul Aug Sep Season 1996 99 92 91 92 92 99 2022 98 95 M M M 98 1992 98 90 97 95 90 98 1987 98 96 97 97 87 98 1962 98 94 96 93 87 98

The big question this week is where will the stationary front and training convection set up? Every model has a different location. So low skill forecast for any given location from Tuesday into Thursday.

A winter with near or below freezing temperatures and 50”+ of snow is getting more challenging for NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 DJF Temperature 1 1996-04-30 75.6 32.2 2 1948-04-30 63.9 30.0 3 2011-04-30 61.9 32.8 4 1923-04-30 60.4 29.9 5 1873-04-30 60.2 27.7 6 2014-04-30 57.4 32.9 7 1875-04-30 56.4 27.7 8 1899-04-30 55.9 31.5 9 1961-04-30 54.7 31.7 10 1994-04-30 53.4 31.1 11 1907-04-30 53.2 31.1 12 1934-04-30 52.0 29.1 13 1967-04-30 51.5 34.1 14 2010-04-30 51.4 33.8 15 1978-04-30 50.7 30.3 - 1917-04-30 50.7 31.7 - 1916-04-30 50.7 32.4 16 2015-04-30 50.3 31.4 17 1893-04-30 49.4 28.6 18 2003-04-30 49.3 31.2

It would be great if some of this June blocking carried over to next winter like it did in 09-10. The west based block at 500 mb is more impressive this June than in 2009. But the ENSO state with the La Niña is much different this year. So even a fraction of that 09-10 winter blocking would be nice to see. That 09-10 winter was part of the big 3 El Niño modoki winters. The rare combo of a cold NYC winter with near 50”+ of snow in 02-03, 09-10, and 14-15.

Relative to the means, Christmas has been running much warmer than July 4th since 2014. Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1964-12-25 69 44 0.01 0.0 0 1982-12-25 68 40 0.02 0.0 0 2014-12-25 64 41 0.10 0.0 0 2015-12-25 63 54 0.03 0.0 0 2020-12-25 62 28 0.66 0.0 0 1940-12-25 61 32 0.00 0.0 0 1994-12-25 60 41 T 0.0 0 1979-12-25 59 47 0.37 0.0 0 1965-12-25 59 40 0.85 0.0 0 1936-12-25 57 36 0.00 0.0 0 2021-12-25 55 38 0.16 0.0 0 2008-12-25 55 33 0.11 0.0 0 1933-12-25 54 30 0.00 0.0 M 1932-12-25 54 43 0.16 0.0 M 1931-12-25 53 31 0.00 0.0 M 2016-12-25 52 34 0.00 0.0 0 Data for July 4 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1949-07-04 105 74 0.08 0.0 0 2010-07-04 101 67 0.00 0.0 0 2002-07-04 100 81 0.00 0.0 0 1966-07-04 100 78 0.00 0.0 0 1999-07-04 99 79 T 0.0 0 2012-07-04 97 73 0.05 0.0 0 1993-07-04 97 74 0.00 0.0 0 1990-07-04 97 71 0.00 0.0 0 1955-07-04 97 73 0.00 0.0 0 1983-07-04 96 79 0.00 0.0 0 1974-07-04 95 76 0.00 0.0 0 1957-07-04 95 70 T 0.0 0 2003-07-04 94 67 0.00 0.0 0 2011-07-04 92 71 0.00 0.0 0 2013-07-04 91 76 0.00 0.0 0 1952-07-04 91 67 1.07 0.0 0 1987-07-04 90 73 0.00 0.0 0 1984-07-04 90 70 T 0.0 0 1977-07-04 90 66 0.00 0.0 0 1965-07-04 90 65 0.00 0.0 0 1948-07-04 90 65 0.00 0.0 0

First model guess for the July 4th weekend is a continuation of the June pattern. The heat ridge remains to our west. Some hint of the trough holding on near New England.

First time that LGA tied or set a record low in late June since the 1990s. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 544 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2022 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE TIED AT LAGUARDIA NY... A RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 56 WAS TIED AT LAGUARDIA NY TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 56 SET IN 1958. THIS PRODUCT WILL BE UPDATED IF A LOWER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED. ALL CLIMATE DATA ARE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY UNTIL REVIEWED BY THE NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION (NCEI). 6/19 56 in 2022 56 in 1958 57 in 1959 6/20 55 in 1959 56 in 1940 57 in 1956 6/21 53 in 1940 55 in 1968 56 in 1970+ 6/22 53 in 1992 54 in 1940 57 in 1963 6/23 53 in 1940 54 in 1992 54 in 1972 6/24 53 in 1947 55 in 1972 56 in 1940 6/25 55 in 1940 56 in 1979 57 in 1974+ 6/26 56 in 1985 56 in 1979 56 in 1974 6/27 56 in 1972 56 in 1940 57 in 1985 6/28 55 in 1995 56 in 1970 57 in 1940 6/29 59 in 1995 60 in 1983 60 in 1970+ 6/30 57 in 1996 58 in 1988 60 in 1940

This was one of the greatest temperature drops on record for JFK in late June. The chart below only uses hourly temperatures. So add another degree since the high at JFK was 94° between hours. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=JFK&hours=39&month=jun&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

If NYC can drop below 55° Sunday morning, then it would be the first time this late in the season between 6-19 and 6-30 since 1995. Latest lows under 55° in NYC since 1950 First/Last Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 1963 07-09 (1963) 54 08-25 (1963) 53 46 1979 07-06 (1979) 54 09-19 (1979) 53 74 1988 07-01 (1988) 53 09-06 (1988) 50 66 1995 06-28 (1995) 54 09-11 (1995) 53 74 1992 06-23 (1992) 52 09-13 (1992) 52 81 1968 06-21 (1968) 53 09-29 (1968) 53 99 1986 06-18 (1986) 54 08-28 (1986) 52 70 1959 06-18 (1959) 53 09-16 (1959) 52 89 1950 06-18 (1950) 48 09-05 (1950) 54 78

Gust fronts ahead of squall lines can be interesting along the South Shore. I can remember a summer day in Long Beach with a strong sea breeze and temperatures in the low 80s. The outflow from a squall line rapidly shifted the winds to offshore. The temperature jumped from 83° to 96° in about 3 minutes. It had been in the upper 90s most of the day away from the sea breeze around NYC.

The GEPS has a middle ground between the GEFS and EPS. The high east of New England late next week becomes the Bermuda high a few days later. So the SSE flow becomes more SW and gives us a warm up in late June.

While we get the more linked up look, energy is trying to sneak underneath. So we get more onshore flow with high pressure east of New England next week.

Pretty unusual for Newark not to get above 95°on Friday or set a record high with record heat to our west this past week. Notice how much warmer Newark was in the past when Toledo, Ohio had record heat in mid-June. So strong blocking combining with with a heat dome is different from typical June climo. Same years bolded at Newark when Toledo had a record high Toledo Area, OHPeriod of record: 1873-03-01 through 2022-06-17 6/12 95 in 1956 94 in 1954 93 in 1925 6/13 96 in 2017 95 in 1956 94 in 1988 6/14 96 in 1988 95 in 1956 94 in 1967 6/15 98 in 2022 96 in 1994 95 in 1988+ 6/16 99 in 1994 98 in 1952 96 in 2022 6/17 97 in 1994 97 in 1957 95 in 2018+ 6/18 98 in 1994 97 in 1944 96 in 2018 Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-06-17 6/12 97 in 2017 95 in 1973 94 in 1949 6/13 99 in 2017 98 in 1961 96 in 1984 6/14 99 in 1988 99 in 1956 98 in 1994 6/15 101 in 1994 99 in 1988 99 in 1945 6/16 98 in 1981 97 in 1991 96 in 1988 6/17 98 in 1952 97 in 1957 97 in 1945 6/18 97 in 1993 97 in 1945 96 in 2018+ RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH 0535 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET AT TOLEDO OH A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 98 WAS SET AT TOLEDO OH TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 96 SET IN 1994. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 224 AM EDT SAT JUN 18 2022 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 17 2022... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1931 TO 2022 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 95 314 PM 98 1952

First time that Newark had 4 days of 95+ by June 17th without a official heatwave of 3 consecutive 90° days. So an usual battle between the heat ridge to our west and blocking to our north and east. We get these big weather swings between scattered 90°+ days and cool downs like this weekend. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Jan 1 to Jun 17 First Heatwave 1 1984-06-17 6 6-7 to 6-11 2 2021-06-17 5 6-5 to 6-9 3 2008-06-17 4 6-7 to 6-10 - 1988-06-17 4 6-12 to 6-16 - 1987-06-17 4 5-29 to 6-1 - 1945-06-17 4 6-14 to 6-18 2022-06-17 4 ?

Very impressive downslope warming at Newark. Newark Liberty MOSUNNY 94 56 27 W23G43

A two day June temperature drop at Newark from the 90s to 50s is impressive.Top 10 greatest from the daily high to the daily low two days later is 36° to 41°. Maybe Newark can beat expectations today and creep up to the 92° to 95°range.Then all it needs to do is make a run on 55° or lower Sunday morning to approach a 40° drop. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=42&month=jun&dir=cool&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

While today will be one of our few 90° days this month, we have had a top 10 warmest June 1st to 15th. The new much warmer 1991-2020 climate normals really reduces the departures. In our new warmer climate, a lack of extended heat makes things feel cooler. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 15 Missing Count 1 2008-06-15 71.8 0 2 1999-06-15 71.7 0 3 1973-06-15 71.4 0 4 1984-06-15 71.2 0 5 2005-06-15 70.1 0 6 2021-06-15 69.1 0 7 2010-06-15 68.8 0 8 2011-06-15 68.7 0 9 2022-06-15 68.6 0 - 1991-06-15 68.6 0 10 2014-06-15 68.5 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 15 Missing Count 1 1973-06-15 76.9 0 2 1984-06-15 76.2 0 3 2008-06-15 76.1 0 4 2005-06-15 75.9 0 5 1994-06-15 75.2 0 6 2021-06-15 74.9 0 7 1999-06-15 74.5 0 8 2022-06-15 73.9 0 9 1992-06-15 73.6 0 10 2010-06-15 73.5 0

First model guess for the start of July Is a ridge in the Rockies and Plains. Some hint of a continuing trough near New England. Also a bit of a -EPO +PNA pattern. The wild card may how much blocking verifies SE of Greenland. Stronger blocking there would keep more of a trough in New England. But a weaker block in the North Atlantic could allow a stronger WAR to link up with the ridge to our west.

Friday will be another one of our brief warm up days. Then the low temperatures fall into the 50s by Sunday morning. So a continuation of the blocking pattern for a while longer.

The 2012 model forecast for the rate of extent decline to slow following the 2007-2012 historic losses was very impressive. https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/7/555/2013/tc-7-555-2013.pdf Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model A. E. West, A. B. Keen, and H. T. Hewitt Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK Received: 09 May 2012 – Discussion started: 18 Jul 2012 – Revised: 04 Feb 2013 – Accepted: 18 Feb 2013 – Published: 26 Mar 2013 Abstract. The fully coupled climate model HadGEM1 produces one of the most accurate simulations of the historical record of Arctic sea ice seen in the IPCC AR4 multi-model ensemble. In this study, we examine projections of sea ice decline out to 2030, produced by two ensembles of HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings included. These ensembles project a significant slowing of the rate of ice loss to occur after 2010, with some integrations even simulating a small increase in ice area. We use an energy budget of the Arctic to examine the causes of this slowdown. A negative feedback effect by which rapid reductions in ice thickness north of Greenland reduce ice export is found to play a major role. A slight reduction in ocean-to-ice heat flux in the relevant period, caused by changes in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and subpolar gyre in some integrations, as well as freshening of the mixed layer driven by causes other than ice melt, is also found to play a part. Finally, we assess the likelihood of a slowdown occurring in the real world due to these causes. How to cite. West, A. E., Keen, A. B., and Hewitt, H. T.: Mechanisms causing reduced Arctic sea ice loss in a coupled climate model, The Cryosphere, 7, 555–567, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-7-555-2013, 2013. New paper discusses the slowdown since the last record in 2012. Recent Slowdown in the Decline of Arctic Sea Ice Volume Under Increasingly Warm Atmospheric and Oceanic Conditions Jinlun Zhang First published: 25 August 2021 https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL094780 Citations: 1 Here, 2007 is selected as a starting year to examine the slowdown of the Arctic SIV in recent years. This is based on the consideration that 2007 saw a record low summer ice extent at that time, before a new record set in 2012. Nevertheless, the selection is somewhat arbitrary, and one can certainly select a different starting year for analysis. However, moderately shifting the starting year away from 2007 (e.g., 2005, 2006, 2008, and 2009) would not fundamentally change this model study's conclusions that a slowdown of the Arctic SIV decline has occurred in recent years. Note that the model simulated Arctic SIV drops from 1979 to a local minimum in 1982 and then peaks in 1987 (Figure 2a). There is no significant trend in SIV during the period 1979–1987. While there is no significant trend in SIV either during the period 2007–2020, the later period differs from the early period 1979–1987 in two key aspects: (a) SIV in 2007–2020 is much lower than in 1979–1987, and (b) SAT and UOT are climbing increasingly higher in 2007–2020, while dropping in 1979–1987. The thinner ice cover during 2007–2020 leads the ice export and growth processes to play a role in serving as a negative feedback to slow down the SIV decline, which is not seen in 1979–1987. It is expected that such a role may become more prominent in the future. In other words, the slowdown of the Arctic SIV decline may continue for some time in the future unless a stronger Arctic warming than the present would occur. Whether it is true remains to be seen through enhanced observations and modeling.

Toledo, Ohio had a record high of 98° yesterday surpassing the previous record set in 1994. So this will be a rare instance of record heat so close to our west not making it here. The same date back in 1994 Newark set a record high of 101°. Toledo Area, OHPeriod of record: 1873-03-01 through 2022-06-15 6/15 98 in 2022 96 in 1994 95 in 1988+ Newark Area, NJPeriod of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-06-15 6/15 101 in 1994 99 in 1988 99 in 1945

Really interesting presentation on how climate change can generate these types of regional extremes. 15:29–15:35 | EGU22-10405 | ECS | Highlight | OSPP | Virtual presentation 2021 North American Heat Wave Fueled by Climate-Change-Driven Nonlinear Interactions Samuel Bartusek, Kai Kornhuber, and Mingfang Ting Extreme heat conditions in the Pacific Northwest US and Southwestern Canada in summer 2021 were of unprecedented severity. Constituting a 5-sigma anomaly, the heatwave affected millions, likely led to thousands of excess deaths, and promoted wildfires that decreased air quality throughout the continent. Even as global warming causes an increase in the severity and frequency of heatwaves both locally and globally, this event’s magnitude went beyond what many would have considered plausible under current climate conditions. It is thus important to attribute such an exceptional event to specific physical drivers and assess its relation to climate change, to improve projection and prediction of future extreme heat events. A particularly pressing question is whether any changing variability of atmospheric dynamics or land-atmosphere interaction is implicated in amplifying current and future heat extremes. Using ERA5 reanalysis, we find that slow- and fast-moving components of the atmospheric circulation interacted to trigger extreme geopotential height anomalies during this event. We additionally identify anomalously low soil moisture levels as a critical event driver: we find that land-atmosphere feedbacks drove nonlinear amplification of its temperature anomaly by 40% (contributing 3K of the 10K peak regional-mean anomaly), catalyzed by multidecadal temperature and soil moisture trends. This is supported by a model experiment demonstrating that soil moisture interaction may increase the likelihood of the observed monthly-scale regional temperature anomaly by O(10)x. We estimate that over the four recent decades of gradual warming, the event’s temperature anomaly has become 10–100 times more likely, transforming from a ~10,000-year to a 100–1,000-year occurrence. Its likelihood continues to increase, roughly exponentially, and it is projected to recur ~20-yearly by 2060 based on continued warming at a constant rate. Our results therefore suggest an important role of atmospheric dynamics and nonlinear land-atmosphere interactions in driving this exceptional heat extreme, promoted by a long-term warming trend due to anthropogenic climate change that will continue to increase the likelihood of such extremes under continued emissions. How to cite: Bartusek, S., Kornhuber, K., and Ting, M.: 2021 North American Heat Wave Fueled by Climate-Change-Driven Nonlinear Interactions, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10405, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-10405, 2022.

We are still dealing with the Atlantic blocking pattern that emerged after March 20th. Big reversal from the winter into early spring. The next few weeks will probably determine what kind of summer we have for heat. If the warm ups keep getting pushed back, then this summer probably won’t be as hot as last. If the blocking fades and the WAR can link up with the Plains ridge, then it will be off to the races for the heat. Where was this pattern during the winter? Dec 1 to Mar 20 below normal snowfall for many Blocking emerges after March 20th with brief warm ups followed by cool downs

The EPS is coming in stronger with the blocking from the weekend into early next week. So we’ll have to wait a while longer for our first official 3 day heatwave. All warm ups since late May have lasted 1-2 days due to the blocking pushing back against the amplifying heat ridges. But we have been getting a higher than average number of 80°+ days. This is how places like Newark are running more than +3. New run Old run