bluewave

The Lido Dunes section near the famous Marvel ice cream stand to the Mushrooms had the best Dune protection and it served them very well. Most people have two story houses with the ocean view from their upstairs. That is a good compromise. Those are some of the most sought after homes on the entire barrier island. Long Beach had very small dunes that got flattened by Sandy with the houses immediately behind them suffering major damage. Long Beach is still having problems with their infrastructure after Sandy. Had some friends tell me that they went to a restaurant about a week ago in Long Beach and their were issues with sewer back ups and bad smells outside the restaurant. Also spoke to a few business owners in the years after Sandy and said they were continuing to have issues with toilets not flushing very well and having to call the city for assistance.

I can remember all the back and forth about what to do about erosion from my days living in Long Beach. They had proposals before Hurricane Sandy to build higher dunes. But many people near the beach didn’t want the dunes obstructing their view of the ocean. So they kicked the can for years and finally did the new dunes after Sandy. There was a section in Lido Beach with very high dunes that did very well. The people just got used to not being able to see the ocean from their first floors. But the section of Lido Beach with low dunes and better views around the Lido Towers suffered heavy damage from the waves pounding the first floor and knocking out walls.

Yeah, the Army Corps will have to return to places like Fire Island to repair the dunes. Very risky in this era of more extreme weather to build right on the dunes like that.

15-16 was the warmest weekly Nino 4 of all time at +1.7. The 09-10 event came in at +1.4. But the current +1.3 daily is very impressive. That warm pool near the Dateline with +30C is the warmest part of the whole Pacific. I believe this a new daily record for October 1st. None of the other Nino regions are anywhere near a daily record.

Nino 4 is a month ahead of 2015 which didn’t have readings this warm until early November. The main difference this time is that September may have registered one of lowest September average monthly- PDO readings on record. We had a solid positive +PDO in 15-16.

More conformation that eastern ENSO regions have peaked unusually early. The most recent observations (with instruments) of the @DHN_peru show a cooling of the sea at #ElCallao and yesterday's in particular is the lowest of the entire event #ElNiñoCostero in progress. But, it is still a little more than 2ºC above normal; which is also the most recent differential that the temperatures in #Lima - #Callao are showing compared to their typical values for this time

Same here in Southern CT. Just a little thinner than it was earlier. Off the charts wildfire season in Canada.

Top 10 warmest September at ISP and EWR. The 91-20 climate normals have warmed so much, that it only takes a +1.7 at ISP for the 7th warmest September temperature. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2015 70.9 0 2 2005 70.2 0 3 2018 69.8 0 4 2021 69.6 0 - 1980 69.6 0 5 2017 69.0 0 - 2011 69.0 0 6 2016 68.9 0 7 2023 68.6 0 - 1998 68.6 0 8 2010 68.3 0 9 2022 68.2 0 10 1983 68.1 0 - 1971 68.1 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1961 74.5 0 2 2005 73.5 0 3 2015 73.4 0 4 2021 72.5 0 5 2016 71.8 0 - 1971 71.8 0 6 2010 71.6 0 7 1959 71.5 0 8 2018 71.4 0 9 2023 71.2 0 - 2011 71.2 0 10 1973 71.0 0 - 1931 71.0 0

The run of Decembers from 2000 to 2010 was epic around NYC. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 2.8 2.8 2022 T T 2021 0.2 0.2 2020 10.5 10.5 2019 2.5 2.5 2018 T T 2017 7.7 7.7 2016 3.2 3.2 2015 T T 2014 1.0 1.0 2013 8.6 8.6 2012 0.4 0.4 2011 0.0 0.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 8.9 8.9 2010 20.1 20.1 2009 12.4 12.4 2008 6.0 6.0 2007 2.9 2.9 2006 0.0 0.0 2005 9.7 9.7 2004 3.0 3.0 2003 19.8 19.8 2002 11.0 11.0 2001 T T 2000 13.4 13.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 2.7 2.7 1999 T T 1998 2.0 2.0 1997 T T 1996 T T 1995 11.5 11.5 1994 T T 1993 6.9 6.9 1992 0.4 0.4 1991 0.7 0.7 1990 7.2 7.2 1989 1.4 1.4 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Season Mean 2.0 2.0 1988 0.3 0.3 1987 2.6 2.6 1986 0.6 0.6 1985 0.9 0.9 1984 5.5 5.5 1983 1.6 1.6 1982 3.0 3.0 1981 2.1 2.1 1980 2.8 2.8 1979 3.5 3.5 1978 0.5 0.5 1977 0.4 0.4

If Monroe was this bad, then I am sure that the area around Laurelton and Lido Blvd was even worse.

Still looks like the subsurface hasn’t made much progress beyond the late winter into spring OKW which peaked back in June. Took a few months in August for 3.4 to get to the strong level with the decent WWB pattern. But the lack of WWBs lead to the late September decline. So there is still no indication yet of another major OKW which would be important to get to super. Not sure how much warmer we can get from the recent +1.7 peak on just sloshing back and forth.

Sorry to hear about all that. The Sandy surge stopped 2-3 inches below coming into my old apartment which I had moved out of months before. Several of my neighbors that lived in older houses that weren’t on a higher foundation flooded. I can also remember a flash flood around the fall of 2015 that flooded a friends basement in Wantagh. I believe it was a back building thunderstorm that stalled right over Wantagh. I agree this was much rarer back in the old days.

Yeah, it’s not easy living on a barrier island these days. I got flooded out of my basement apartment in Long Beach by Agnes in June of 1972. We found a new apartment about a year later and settled on no more basement apartments. The rest of the 70s were relatively quiet for flooding outside the West End. My friend with a basement in his house picked up flooding with the spring 1983 deluge. Then the record 5.15”in under 2 hours shut down our drinking water during June 1995. Flooding situation was pretty quiet for another 10 years until the October 2005 record event which flooded out most LB basements. Followed up a while later by the record 10” in less than 12 hours on 8-14-11. Then the Irene storm surge flooding a few weeks later. Then the off the charts extreme Sandy tidal surge flooding in October 2012. I moved out of LB by chance months before Sandy hit. So not sure about all the local flood specifics after that time.

For this reason as well as others, I would transition all the CPC teleconnections to 500 mb height anomalies like this great recent paper.

The official OISST still has 3.4 under +1.5 as it has been moving sideways the last few days after the decline. Nino 1+2 and 3 cooled off in recent days. The only significant move up was in 4. Pretty much reflects that big +30 C reservoir near the Dateline. I believe this may be close to the all-time daily record for 9-30. https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/

Yeah, I am thinking there there were spots in the 5 towns and Far Rockaway with around 11.00” since the radar estimate in Valley Stream was around 2.50” too low. Nassau County... Valley Stream 9.06 in 0906 PM 09/29 CWOP

NYC is the new Riverhead. Data for September 1, 2023 through September 30, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 72.4 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 71.4 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.3 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 70.5 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 70.4 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 70.2 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 70.1 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 69.7 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 69.7 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 69.6 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 69.5

Yeah, the big EPAC forcing has always been just two weeks away since the spring. Reminds me of the proverbial GFS 384 hr snowstorm thst keeps getting pushed back in time. Euro seasonal forecast for September Verification

I miss the old days when the NWS were in 30 Rock and they would go over to the park for measurements and make sure tree growth wasn’t impinging on the observations.

At least to me, it’s more an issue of the long term integrity of the site than any climate change influence. Up through the 1980s, there was much less obstruction from trees. So comparing the pre-90s new ASOS observations to today is more like a change of location. So it’s hard to compare changes over time since fundamental way of measurements were taken there has changed. So artificially cooled lower highs during the leaf out season and more potential errors in measuring rainfall with trees sheltering the rain gauge and leaves possibly falling into the gauge. Plus professional snowfall measurements by NWS staff before they moved to OKX in the early 90s. To more sporadic measurements at times by different organizations that often measure too late after small snow events allowing the melt to lower the snowfall amounts. The article below is from 20 years ago and the tree growth has only increased. http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV (New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy. Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the equipment buried in Central Park. Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of Central Park. But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is in the shade instead of direct sunlight. Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with false information." The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top. There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way. But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet of the station. Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with visibility sensors." [NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence in the park. He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park than at the airports. Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of the vegetation." Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says its a city that deserves better. Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they deserve the best weather station money can buy." Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

Even with the cool and wet ending to the month, several stations will finish with another 70° September. Data for September 1, 2023 through September 30, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Mean Avg Temperature NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 72.4 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 71.4 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 71.3 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 70.5 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 70.4 NY MOUNT SINAI COOP 70.4 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 70.1 Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2005 74.9 0 2 2015 74.1 0 3 2016 73.8 0 4 1961 73.6 0 5 2007 73.0 0 6 2018 72.8 0 7 2021 72.7 0 8 2010 72.5 0 - 1959 72.5 0 9 2019 72.1 0 10 1998 71.6 0 11 2017 71.5 0 12 2023 71.3 1 - 2002 71.3 0 13 2020 71.1 0 14 2022 70.9 0 15 1971 70.8 0 16 2012 70.7 0 - 2011 70.7 0 - 2004 70.7 0 - 1985 70.7 0 17 1983 70.6 0 - 1968 70.6 0 18 2014 70.4 0 - 2008 70.4 0 - 1980 70.4 0 - 1970 70.4 0 - 1941 70.4 0 19 1965 70.3 0 - 1953 70.3 0 - 1945 70.3 0 20 1999 70.2 0 - 1957 70.2 0 21 1952 70.1 0 - 1946 70.1 0

9.06” at Valley Stream is one of the heaviest events of all-time for Western Nassau. Nassau County... Valley Stream 9.06 in 0906 PM 09/29 CWOP

Wettest September on record at JFK and 2nd wettest in NYC. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 2023 12.79 1 2 1975 9.65 0 3 1960 9.60 0 4 2004 8.25 0 5 1966 7.47 0 6 2008 6.74 0 7 1999 6.73 0 8 1977 6.69 0 9 2018 5.99 0 10 1974 5.97 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Precipitation Missing Count 1 1882 16.85 0 2 2023 14.21 1 3 1934 11.96 0 4 2004 11.51 0 5 1944 10.30 0 6 1933 10.09 0 7 2021 10.03 0 8 2011 9.39 0 9 1975 9.32 0 10 1938 9.06 0

We can add July 2023 for our northern areas and September 2023 around NYC. Monthly Data for July 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY WEST POINT COOP 18.12 CT WATERBURY 1.3 WNW CoCoRaHS 15.31 NY BEACON 4.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 14.21 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 12.96 NY PORT JERVIS 2.9 ESE CoCoRaHS 12.82 NY SOUTH SALEM 2.1 NW CoCoRaHS 12.60 NY THORNWOOD 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 12.32 NY NEW HEMPSTEAD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 11.58 NY STONY POINT 0.7 NW CoCoRaHS 11.57 NY WALDEN 1.2 S CoCoRaHS 11.51 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 11.49 NY SOUTH SALEM 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 11.40 NY PEEKSKILL 0.4 N CoCoRaHS 11.37 CT EAST LYME 0.5 SW CoCoRaHS 10.97 NY CORNWALL ON HUDSON 0.6 NNW CoCoRaHS 10.91 CT SEYMOUR 1.2 WSW CoCoRaHS 10.86 CT NORTHFORD 0.8 SW CoCoRaHS 10.81 NY BRIARCLIFF MANOR 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 10.76 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 10.51 CT RIDGEFIELD 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 10.48 CT GUILFORD COOP 10.41 CT BROOKFIELD 3.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 10.38 CT ANSONIA 1 NE COOP 10.16 NY CARMEL 4N COOP 10.05 CT RIDGEFIELD 3.7 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.05 NY PINE BUSH 3.4 WSW CoCoRaHS 10.04 Monthly Data for September 2023 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 14.21 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 13.21 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 12.79 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 12.67 CT CROMWELL 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 12.40 CT PUTNAM LAKE COOP 11.56 CT PROSPECT 1.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 11.04 CT GRISWOLD 0.9 N CoCoRaHS 10.84 CT SEYMOUR 1.2 WSW CoCoRaHS 10.52 CT MIDDLEFIELD 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 10.45 CT MERIDEN 2.8 WSW CoCoRaHS 10.45 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 10.30 CT NORWICH 2.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 10.23

The PDO so out of phase with the ENSO is creating chaos with the short term PNA forecasts. So the models are struggling to get the Aleutian low position correct. A typical El Niño October has a very strong -EPO pattern. A La Niña -PDO has more of a +EPO in October. New run Old run October El Niño composite October -PDO La Niña composite