bluewave

Yeah, that’s why that area was one of the few spots in the US to get a decrease in climate normals rather than an increase. Same old pattern of the coldest departures dropping to our west.

Very Niña-like Arctic outbreak pattern for North America this month. Seattle NWS mentioning the low max could be coldest there since the 1998-1999 strong La Niña.

First time NYC hasn’t had a winter high temperature below 37° by January 11th. BTV tied its record warmest low max at 25°. POU also set a new record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Dec 1 to Jan 11 Missing Count 1 2024-01-11 37 0 2 1975-01-11 36 0 3 1987-01-11 34 0 4 2013-01-11 32 0 - 1997-01-11 32 0 - 1941-01-11 32 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Dec 1 to Jan 11 Missing Count 1 2024-01-11 25 0 - 2002-01-11 25 0 3 2000-01-11 21 0 4 2007-01-11 20 0 - 1998-01-11 20 0 - 1987-01-11 20 0 - 1975-01-11 20 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Dec 1 to Jan 11 Missing Count 1 2024-01-11 33 0 2 1931-01-11 32 32 3 2002-01-11 31 0 - 1932-01-11 31 3

The Arctic outbreaks from 77-94 were very memorable back in Long Beach. January 1985 was the greatest display of Arctic sea smoke I ever saw on the Long Beach boardwalk. Lows near 0° and westerly gusts 40-50 mph. What I loved about Long Beach was that there were always people on the boardwalk in the most extreme weather. During the January 2004 Arctic outbreak there was a guy windsurfing in a wetsuit. Then I saw a jogger on the boardwalk in a lightweight track running suit. The most extreme was a guy on the LB boardwalk by Lincoln during Sandy only 15 minutes before that section of boardwalk collapsed into the ocean.

It can’t be UHI since Philly and Newark had top 5 all-time cold as recently as the 1980s and early 1990s. I just think the trajectory of the Arctic outbreaks from 77 to 94 favored areas to the north, west, and south of NYC. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -11 0 2 1984 -7 0 - 1982 -7 0 3 1985 -6 0 - 1899 -6 0 4 1994 -5 0 - 1963 -5 0 - 1880 -5 0 - 1875 -5 0 5 1977 -4 0 - 1961 -4 0 - 1917 -4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -14 0 2 1985 -8 0 - 1933 -8 0 3 1982 -7 0 - 1943 -7 0 4 1936 -4 0 - 1935 -4 0 5 1994 -2 0 - 1977 -2 0 - 1963 -2 0 - 1961 -2 0

Off the charts SST warmth in the MDR right now.

The 950 mb benchmark blizzard in January 2018 had single digits around the storm. It makes mixed precip near the coast less likely. It also allows us to retain snowpack longer.

The heat island in NYC has been fairly stable for a long time. They have actually been doing slightly better than the rural areas relative to the record the absolute coldest temperatures. At least NYC was able to dip below 0° as recently as 2016. But POU hasn’t been able to make it to -15 or lower since 1994. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1961 -30 1 2 1967 -23 0 - 1950 -23 2 3 1954 -22 0 4 1994 -20 29 - 1981 -20 8 - 1968 -20 0 5 1984 -18 0 - 1971 -18 0 - 1964 -18 0 - 1945 -18 2 6 1970 -16 0 - 1963 -16 0 - 1934 -16 2 7 1988 -15 0 - 1979 -15 0 - 1965 -15 0 - 1943 -15 1 - 1933 -15 1 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -15 0 2 1917 -13 0 3 1943 -8 0 4 1933 -6 0 - 1918 -6 0 - 1899 -6 0 - 1882 -6 0 - 1880 -6 1 5 1914 -5 0 - 1896 -5 0 6 1942 -4 0 - 1904 -4 0 - 1895 -4 1 - 1886 -4 0 - 1879 -4 2 7 1936 -3 0 - 1912 -3 0 - 1884 -3 0 - 1881 -3 3 - 1875 -3 2 8 1994 -2 0 - 1985 -2 0 - 1977 -2 0 - 1963 -2 0 - 1961 -2 0 - 1925 -2 0 - 1922 -2 0 - 1920 -2 0 - 1885 -2 0 - 1871 -2 2 9 2016 -1 0

Last February 4th was all about the cold air drain down the Hudson Valley on the NNW flow. The Great Lakes have been getting so warm and ice free into the winter, that it’s tough for NYC to drop under 5°these days on a W to NW flow. I can remember several westerly flow events in the 70s and 80s when NYC made to around 0°. But the much warmer lakes make that a challenge these days.

The craziest was the early dismissal during the height of the 1938 hurricane. https://www.greenwichtime.com/local/article/The-Hurricane-of-1938-5618878.php#photo-6591068

Yeah, those Niña-like influences have loomed large over our climate since the epic summer in March 2012 for the Great Lakes area.

Yeah, March 1984 was right up there for coastal flooding in Long Beach with Dec 73, Belle, and Feb 78. But Gloria and Dec 92 topped those 3. My first memory of coastal flooding was in Dec 73. Detroit got a great snowstorm and we got 75 mph winds and major coastal flooding. The school bus was driving through all the sand left in the streets of the West End when the ocean met the bay.

Yeah, we didn’t get as many days off for storms in the old days. I can still remember walking home from high school during the February 1983 blizzard. We all thought it was really cool. But the March 1984 big coastal flooding event may have been the wildest. Long Beach High School is right on Reynolds Channel in Lido Beach. The storm surge came over the bulkhead and flooded the whole area around the school. Waves were actually pushing into the parking lot and several teachers had to move there cars. The huge windows were flexing in with gusts to 70-75 off the bay. Then the power went out and they sent us home. Probably the heaviest wind driven sleet I have ever walked home from school in.

Fire Island will have more inlets cut in the coming decades and it will be up to the army corps whether they want to leave or plug. But this will present challenges for back bay flooding since the tidal range in the GSB could increase with more inlets.

While it’s going to feel cold here next week compared to how warm it has been, it doesn’t look like it will match the Arctic outbreak for us last February when NYC got down to 3°. Data for February 4, 2023 through February 4, 2023 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Lowest Min Temperature NY CARMEL 4N COOP -10 CT OXFORD WATERBURY WBAN -9 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -6 CT GUILFORD COOP -5 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP -5 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN -5 NY PORT JERVIS COOP -4 NY SHRUB OAK COOP -4 CT GROTON NEW LONDON AP WBAN -4 CT IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT WBAN -4 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP -3 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN -3 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN -3 NY WEST POINT COOP -2 NY ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP -2 NY RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP -1 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0 NY UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 0 NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 0 NY SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 1 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 2 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 3 NJ HARRISON COOP 3 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 3 NY SYOSSET COOP 3 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 3 NY CENTERPORT COOP 3 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 4 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 4 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 5 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 5 NY WORLD TRADE CENTER WBAN 5 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 5 NY PORT AUTH DOWNTN MANHATTAN WALL ST HEL ICAO 7 NY BAITING HOLLOW COOP 9

Parts of Fire Island lost all the sand replenished by the army corps after Sandy. I don’t know how coastal sections will manage in the coming decades with continued extreme weather and rising sea levels. We can adapt to this warming climate with more extreme storms. But sea level rise is going to be our greatest challenge next 100 years and beyond.

I only picked up 2” mostly on the grass here before the rain and warmth melted it. I am concerned about the beach erosion on Long Island continuing into the fall. It looks like a very active hurricane season coming up with the record Atlantic SSTs and La Niña.

This month will be a collaborative effort between the borderline super El Niño, record MJO 2-7 for such a strong El Niño, -PDO, and wave breaks leading to the big mid-month -NAO. So far the deepest trough in the US is in the Southwest like we have been seeing in recent years. When the month is finished, it generally looks like that trough will remain there in the means.

Looks like the coldest departures next week will drop to our West like we have been seeing in recent years. Then a quick moderation in temperatures. Very difficult to get any sustained cold here.

You can see the latest EPS weeklies following the MJO with a lag. Jan 15-22…Lagged P3 Jan 22-29….Lagged….P 4-5 blend Jan 29-Feb 6…..Lagged P 7

Looks like 72 mph was peak gust down in Ocean County. 2 S Island Beach State Park 72 MPH 0939 PM 01/09 Mesonet

Latest HRRR has winds peaking around midnight along the NYC-LI South Shore 65+ and 70+ Jersey Shore Monmouth.

It’s really unusual to get two storms this strong only 3 days apart. I think the wave breaking activity caused by this is going to affect the storm tracks for next week. Just don’t have confidence in any of the model forecast storm tracks for next week yet. Especially if we get the weekend system to retrograde and have vorts trying to rotate around it.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44025 The buoy from station 44025 has gone adrift as of 1300z, 12/18/23. To view the latest position from the buoy, click here.