Stebo
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Everything posted by Stebo
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It isn't a rainer for dtw and definitely not dtx. It will be a lot lower ratio but the temps don't go above 34. Yes I would love no last second shift but this storm has done nothing but shift.
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RAP is about as useless of a model as you can get at this point. The ice storm it had us in the 50s as close as 18 hours out. Grossly overaggressive on WAA.
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You are underestimating the power of the FGEN bands and if they persist over an area I absolutely could see someone get and exceed 12. There is a reason that one of the more notoriously drier models, the HRRR, is going absolutely bananas.
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Hi I would like to lock in the Euro and HRRR. I would die if that happened. At this point I have significant confidence that the NAMs are the toss here with everything else is pretty much nailing SEMI. Only areas I am worried about are downriver and Monroe that they could mix a bit. But Josh lives downriver and we know the snow gods wouldn't let that happen, so expect a small nudge SE .
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Same with the 3km NAM.
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12km NAM definitely shifted SE with the low track and snowfall.
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Only thing i see with that is a loss on the far north end and maybe a hair flatter.
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The problem too is the band isn't exactly wide so noise level changes are making a huge issue. Like what do you do with DTX's CWA.
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Its like the 3km Nam, flatter, which helps both of us.
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There is one short range model that I watch because its been very good, the RDPS(RGEM).
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So far there haven't been any changes of the 00z models out there, the problem is they were still split.
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It started west but ended flatter.
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Both look like they may come in NW Meanwhile the HRRR is definitely in the south camp.
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We are as early as 36 hours out and have significant model discrepancies on location for the snow band.
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Bit flatter of a track too, and definitely south and east a bit.
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My guess they shift SE with the op.
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See out this way the GFS was the best for the ice storm, and has been the better model as of late, it locked in 4 days in advance and didnt move.
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I would be concerned about boundary layer issues for Chicago, the brunt of the snow there would be coming during the day in marginal temps to begin with. If rates can overcome then it should be alright, otherwise there will be issues.
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I thought it was here comes the rain again, or was it miss south stank, I forget.
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My issue with the ECMWF/EPS/NAM is their tendency to overamplify, I mean I would be shocked if this thing bottomed out at like 975, impossible no, unlikely yes in my opinion. So that strength change will dictate a lot of changes downstream. Not to mention that the ECMWF/EPS had moved south and east for like 5 runs in a row. Its solution is shaky as well.
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Of course as soon as I say I like the southern solutions the GFS/GEFS move north, because why the hell not.
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When I say consensus I mean more models having that solution, they could very well be all wrong too. I am not saying that as a predetermined outcome... Plus I have made it pretty apparent in previous posts that I don't know what is going to happen but I am leaning more towards the southern solution set.
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Bowme has been right here for years under another account.
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And this is why I like March snows. They melt within a few days
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Euro is still moving southeast to the concensus of the GFS/RDPS/ICON/UKMET. The only stinker is the GDPS which is too warm for appreciable snow until it's east of here. The NAM is way too NW and doesn't even agree with the SREF mean which is much closer to the GFS group. It is still close though for Detroit to get skunked if it shifts a hair north.
