Stebo
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Everything posted by Stebo
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It is 50 right now and somehow we might be missed to the south 15 hours from now.
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GFS keeps moving south, what a garbage system and/or garbage model.
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I agree with these thoughts, yes it is a bit annoying that there is a drying trend in the models right before the system hits but I don't see this unraveling as fast and there is ample moisture heading north without a blocking heavy rain MCS like back in December.
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I would expect a watch in a couple hours for SEMI, they will probably go 5-8 but I would do 7-10. Every model seems to have move off of the ice potential north of 8 Mile and the rest are slowing moving away from it south of there.
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I'm looking around here, locally for you sure. There are huge differences to the east.
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They were south of the 18z run by a considerable margin.
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To break that down further the ARW part of the ensemble which tends to be the most amplified is the group of the ensemble more south.
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They are south, that is a tell that the NAM maybe be too far north, when everything else is south. Plus inverse NAM principle is a good play too.
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7 at home and 9.2 at work. It wasn't that great of a storm, especially knowing what hit all around us.
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Sad we can't get a within 12 hour bump NW like the lead wave.
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I'm talking part 1. If we grinded to 6 total does it even mean much? I know you are the eternal optimist but this is a screw job.
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We are going to struggle to get to 6" trust me. We are getting screwed. Solid storm sure but when you are forecasted double to triple. It's a complete rug pull.
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**** this stupid winter.
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It's looking like Detroit is going to take forever to change over. Nothing like a massive change less than 12 hours before a storm.
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Yeah good luck getting to 2.7 million people
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I wonder who that is
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First wave is kind of becoming the more dominant wave. I would rather be in the target zone on that right now considering it is much much closer.
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The rest of the clown car (GEFS) are with the op though.
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I don't know what to make of the GFS, it is either going to be genius or a goat on this.
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Don't get me wrong, they can sniff out stuff once and a while but often they are overamplified and correct to the synoptic scale models.
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They are terrible at synoptic scale features, and have limited zones of modelling.
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The main piece actually looks the same or slightly north. They definitely overlap more than 12z run.
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It kinda changed orientation, it was a bit north with the precip shield here
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Not surprising it was still pretty far south.
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This isn't like previous years, you aren't going to see radical changes in location within 2 days. Nothing really has done that this year. Just lesser amounts usually. Location doesn't wildly change anymore
