Stebo
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Everything posted by Stebo
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I don't know what to make of the GFS, it is either going to be genius or a goat on this.
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Don't get me wrong, they can sniff out stuff once and a while but often they are overamplified and correct to the synoptic scale models.
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They are terrible at synoptic scale features, and have limited zones of modelling.
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The main piece actually looks the same or slightly north. They definitely overlap more than 12z run.
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It kinda changed orientation, it was a bit north with the precip shield here
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Not surprising it was still pretty far south.
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This isn't like previous years, you aren't going to see radical changes in location within 2 days. Nothing really has done that this year. Just lesser amounts usually. Location doesn't wildly change anymore
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True but the overrunning event is setting the train tracks down for the 2nd part to ride up.
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Agree and have to remember too this is starting in some placed in less than 48 hours. The clock is running out for anything other than noise level changes.
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There is an 18z gem? Who knew
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Jfc the GEFS is all I can say.
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Euro ensembles aren't buying the shunted south 2nd wave as much. The mean looks like it actually shifted a hair north. Definitely higher amount in the main thrust of the band this run.
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Every 6 hours the Euro has something different, I almost getting to the point of not looking at it.
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Euro is either sniffing one out or is going to be incredibly wrong.
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Yeah I think the Euro evolution is bunk. Hangs back the energy too long in the SW (where have we heard this before, oh wait every major storm here)
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Pound the over
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I would argue there is more room for this to come back north from that 00z run. If the high pressing in is weaker it comes north, if the confluence is weaker it comes north. We are kind of already at the maximum strength for both already. Also if it speeds up a bit it would come north again. Again as others noted too, this version of the euro has been pretty lousy for this region as well.
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Garbage model
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You do realize he has been on here for years under another name, and we are respectable with each other.
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Where do I go to sell my soul for the 12z Euro to be right?
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After next week I will be looking pretty solid on my pick if anything too low on seasonal.
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So did the east coast.
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I like the big risk the big reward though, its just like here. Everyone remembers blizzard of 99 or the 2 ghd storms, no one is going to remember the 2 clippers we had this weekend in a month.
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I don't at all, they have seen storms in the last 10 years that I can only imagine seeing plus they are almost all insufferable.
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Also I have no idea who this could hit right now, all you need to do is look at the nor'easter to see the models have absolutely no idea right now in the mid-long range other than a storm will happen.
