Stebo

How often do we even get warm and dry in the winter? I'd say that probably the least likely scenario in the winter.

Wetter than normal is perfectly fine in winter, you have to sniff rain to get the big dogs.

Also true, it could literally be anything. Look at last February, who saw crippling cold that deep into the south. If someone says they did, I want the mega million numbers too.

We are

Obvious sarcasm is lost on you apparently.

Honestly I think too many are latching onto the 2nd Nina year as being the main driver of the pattern when we really haven't had many to begin with and the 2 moderate 2nd year Nina we have had were polar opposite, meaning there isn't much value there.

Nah I don't see it, the only thing that really matches that is 2nd year nina. Everything else around it are more of a 07-08 look including the warmth this month, the enso state and the -PDO levels.

This is how I feel to be honest, I don't mind long range discussion at all if it is in a post using ensembles and actually discussing the stuff. Its a generality, and more so to the person who posted the map to be honest. It doesn't hurt to actually post a bit of discussion as to why you are posting a day 8-9 map. We have done this forever around here regardless of my tactfulness.

The original post is just as dumb too.

Right, I am the problem. You haven't posted but a couple times in several months, I don't think you understand the dynamic of this subforum. It really isn't hard to let stuff naturally progress in threads instead of just randomly posting stuff with no commentary. I could post a crazy map every 6 hours but that would be meaningless especially since the models change constantly. Which is why I suggested he listen more, I know everyone doesn't have the same background here but you have many long time posters who do just fine without the background a met may have. This wouldn't even be a thing if he didn't just keep doing it after suggesting to post less nonsense that is 8+ days out. Stuff that far out has minimal verification skills to it.

Learning people do much better listening instead of just randomly shouting which is what your one map did. I have no idea if there is instability or anything associated with that. All these things matter.

He says cold in the east every year and collects money from stupid people that believe it. He is a snake oil salesman.

Or if you are going to post something at least post why and multiple progression maps, just a random zomg map says nothing.

I wish I could We don't need, random 1 maps of something that is over 200 hrs out

Yeah upper low swinging down to our east, at best it would be lake effect, but otherwise just crap. I will pass on that look.

Very nice!

Yep, not cold enough for snow, but cold enough to be miserable.

Just remember most early cold Octobers end up being lousy winters for snow, so I am very happy to see a warm early October. 07/10/17 immediately come to mind

If I lived in Indiana I would probably not buy a snow shovel this year.

Have it happen now and not in January

Put me on the side of this was a cat 5 last night

Yellowknife is calling your name. Everyone here outside of a couple people want just snow, not snow and bitter cold.

Summer to Winter all in one day.

Anything in Southern MI Northern IN/OH should be gone after this week.

You dont want cold in early October, every early October I can remember where it was cold and had snow ended up being a shitty winter. Bank that cold for later.