Stebo

Wonderful news to have one of the best back in the region and at a NWS office too!

Need to get it closer but the trends today have been favorable for a better system, with the current system moving east enough to allow for further development of this clipper.

I think we eek out an inch or so, nothing crazy but something to get on board here.

True and Wisconsin/Minnesota should cash in anyways.

This was never thread worthy, even on the gfs it was a couple inches at most. We gotta save the thread making for meaningful storms and have a general thread to cover the DAB+ storms.

18z GFS paints a decent snowfall for November with that too.

For here:

My guess is that the cold air presses in too much and the system gets sheared out under the confluence of the upper low, if it doesn't press enough enough then its rain anyways.

So plotting out the temperatures for the rest of the month would yield a 59.6 average for the month which would put us fourth place, below 60 (1900) above 59.5 (1920, 1879) and above 59.1 (2007)

How often do we even get warm and dry in the winter? I'd say that probably the least likely scenario in the winter.

Wetter than normal is perfectly fine in winter, you have to sniff rain to get the big dogs.

Also true, it could literally be anything. Look at last February, who saw crippling cold that deep into the south. If someone says they did, I want the mega million numbers too.

We are

Obvious sarcasm is lost on you apparently.

Honestly I think too many are latching onto the 2nd Nina year as being the main driver of the pattern when we really haven't had many to begin with and the 2 moderate 2nd year Nina we have had were polar opposite, meaning there isn't much value there.

Nah I don't see it, the only thing that really matches that is 2nd year nina. Everything else around it are more of a 07-08 look including the warmth this month, the enso state and the -PDO levels.

This is how I feel to be honest, I don't mind long range discussion at all if it is in a post using ensembles and actually discussing the stuff. Its a generality, and more so to the person who posted the map to be honest. It doesn't hurt to actually post a bit of discussion as to why you are posting a day 8-9 map. We have done this forever around here regardless of my tactfulness.

The original post is just as dumb too.

Right, I am the problem. You haven't posted but a couple times in several months, I don't think you understand the dynamic of this subforum. It really isn't hard to let stuff naturally progress in threads instead of just randomly posting stuff with no commentary. I could post a crazy map every 6 hours but that would be meaningless especially since the models change constantly. Which is why I suggested he listen more, I know everyone doesn't have the same background here but you have many long time posters who do just fine without the background a met may have. This wouldn't even be a thing if he didn't just keep doing it after suggesting to post less nonsense that is 8+ days out. Stuff that far out has minimal verification skills to it.

Learning people do much better listening instead of just randomly shouting which is what your one map did. I have no idea if there is instability or anything associated with that. All these things matter.

He says cold in the east every year and collects money from stupid people that believe it. He is a snake oil salesman.

Or if you are going to post something at least post why and multiple progression maps, just a random zomg map says nothing.

I wish I could We don't need, random 1 maps of something that is over 200 hrs out

Yeah upper low swinging down to our east, at best it would be lake effect, but otherwise just crap. I will pass on that look.

Very nice!