Stebo
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Everything posted by Stebo
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Until the Euro budges I won't write anything off.
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So the GFS/Nam12/RDPS all are unchanged from 18z but the GFS/RDPS are a snowstorms here and the NAM12 is an ice storm. ICON moved south to match the GFS/RDPS.
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Yeah that would probably be a snow/ice/rain scenario here.
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The EPS mean if anything ticked a hair south, it did lose some of the bigger dogs too which isn't surprising. Path is still for the low to run from STL/Fort Wayne/Detroit.
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I don't know what to make of this one, I think the Euro is overamplified but I don't know if I buy the GFS being this far south. What I will say is that it hasn't moved much compared to the Euro and has the GDPS/RDPS/Ukmet in its corner, where as the Euro has the NAM12 in its corner, to an extent. The NAM12 is actually an ice storm here. The Euro has a straight snow to rain scenario which I completely don't buy at all especially with an occluding storm. Basically TL/DR is an idk emoji.
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Yes
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I would really be surprised if it backed that far west, it would have to essentially go North from AR.
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We shall see, the thing I am watching is that it is already maximized on strength, I don't see this being stronger than 975mb. So there is a limitation how far left it can go, especially since it doesn't go negative until it gets into AR and as RC mentioned there is still a -NAO on going so it could come up and then move east, which would lead to more of an ice storm potential.
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There should be some wind but this isn't surrounded by a very strong high, so even if this ends up sub 980mb it won't be a big wind bag. Thank you
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I was serious that I missed posting with every.
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The 18z Euro is a bit NW of the 12z at the same time. A pretty large zone of ice with it too.
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Lol at this post especially the the bold.
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DTW got exactly the same.
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Most of the models were not going hard until the end, interestingly enough the GFS locked in and didn't budge for 4 days. It ended up getting it right.
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I don't work for the NWS itself, but I have to believe they were. I know a twitter chat of mine with Michigan OCMs, enthusiasts, chasers, and met students were all going harder on the ice than DTX and IWX were. GRR did a good job though. Personally I was quite surprised how bad Hillsdale County got it, the rest though was pretty much what I had expected.
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Yeah I had about .10" of ice in the trees at home, and it was sleeting when I left.
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Thank you, I missed posting here with everyone but I couldn't do it in good conscience for a while.
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Basically the timing goes back to why he was banned out of OT, he should have been removed fully then but somehow wasn't. Other things went on this weekend that pushed the removal of a lot of outstanding issues.
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I am legit concerned this could be the outcome, I hope it isn't. Hell I would take 33 and rain over ice at this point. A repeat of today would be fine, we are at 1.17 liquid almost all of it rain.
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Yep these are both correct, though both of you don't know how long the history goes back. He has had several questionable problems over the years and somehow avoided getting the axe when he should have, more so why he kept testing the bounds until he got what was coming to him for a long time. It really isn't hard to not be a weird creep, but to be an open weird creep so brazenly just is wild. Nonetheless, this subforum will move on and the change will largely go unnoticed.
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Not to my hands but I am glad to be back You don't know what you are talking about More than some and a lot has slid under the radar for a long time. This is something everyone should be happy getting fixed.
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Euro is unchanged from the 12z runs maybe a hair weaker at 500mb but not by much at all.
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Gefs looks to be about the same as 18z a bit less variability.
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It didn't look good for the east if you looked at the teleconnections. Just because a model run or two showed something doesn't mean it's "good" for a region.
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This winter is a C rn.
