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donsutherland1

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  1. donsutherland1
    That he's again hinting at cold and pulling the most extreme (even flawed maps) to illustrate his thinking is no longer surprising. It damages what's left of his credibility, but he seems to place clicks above credibility at this stage of his career. He is nowhere close to what he once was at Accuweather.
  2. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be a bit warmer with temperatures reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. A warming trend will commence after midweek. Afterward, following a weekend with near normal temperatures from a brief push of somewhat cooler air, the potential exists for a long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -11.88 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.039 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.3° (3.3° above normal).
  3. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be another comfortable day with the temperature topping out in the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Minimum temperatures will again start in the lower 60s in New York City and 50s outside the City. A warming trend will commence after midweek. Afterward, the potential exists for a long stretch of above to much above normal temperatures. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around June 5. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.23°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the late summer or early fall. The SOI was -19.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.933 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 85% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.2° (3.2° above normal).
  4. donsutherland1
    After some showers, the clouds broke making for a partly sunny and pleasant afternoon with readings in the 70s. The pleasant temperatures will continue for several more days. Through Tuesday, temperatures will top out in the middle and upper 70s in much of the region. Minimum temperatures will be in the lower 60s in New York City and 50s outside the City. A warming trend will likely commence after midweek. Afterward, the potential exists for a long stretch of above normal temperatures. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -20.74 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.348 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 81% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.1° (3.1° above normal).
  5. donsutherland1
    On Friday, June 7th, Phoenix recorded its earliest 100° mean temperature on record. The progression of its record earliest such mean temperature is below.
  6. donsutherland1
    CPC Week 3-4 Outlook:
  7. donsutherland1
    I suspect that NYC is 2 or 3 weeks away from the onset of a significantly hot period.
  8. donsutherland1
    Tomorrow will be another refreshing day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few spots could see a shower or thundershower. Through early next week, temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. A warming trend will likely commence after midweek. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -18.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.584 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.1° (3.1° above normal).
  9. donsutherland1
    Under brilliant sunshine, a refreshing breeze, and an active breeze, the New York Botanical Garden is about as picturesque as it gets.
  10. donsutherland1
    With a high of 106° yesterday, Del Rio has now had its second extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 methodology) of the year. For the first time, that city has had two extreme heat events in two consecutive years. All cases with two extreme heat events have occurred since 2000. Full-year records go back to 1906. The list of extreme heat events is below. Years with two such events are highlighted in red. Climate change has driven a warming of Del Rio's climate. Summers have warmed 2.1° from 1961-1990 84.3°) to 1991-2020 (86.4°). During 1961-1990, the hottest summer (1980) had an average temperature of 87.4°. Since 2010, eight summers have been hotter, including the last six summers (2018-2023). The pre-2000 record of 88.6° from 1998 has been surpassed in five summers since 2010 and three of the last four summers. Put another way, what was once an extreme outlier summer is on track toward becoming a routine summer in the contemporary warmer climate. This warming has led to a dramatic increase in the frequency of 100° and 105° days. The number of 100° days have increased from 21.0 days per year to 41.1 days per year (1961-1990 to 1991-2020). During the 1991-2020 period, 102° days (22.1 per year) were about as frequent as 100° days were during 1961-1990. During the same reference periods, the number of 105° days has risen from 1.4 days to 5.9 days per year. As summers have warmed and intense heat has grown more common, extreme heat events have increased in frequency. This year saw the two earliest such events on record. Through June 7th, Del Rio has seen 23 100° days. It has also had 11 105° days.
  11. donsutherland1
    Some evening shots during the passage of a distant thunderstorm near sunset:
  12. donsutherland1
    A period of generally dry weather will commence tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will be limited during this period. Through early next week, temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. A warming trend could commence after midweek. Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. The first week of June was the 14th warmest on record for New York City and 10th warmest on record for Philadelphia. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -26.64 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.139 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.0° (3.0° above normal).
  13. donsutherland1
    Dr. Stefan Ramstorf's recent lecture on the AMOC. He has researched the AMOC for more than 30 years and been published widely in the scientific literature. https://x.com/rahmstorf/status/1799048979004678651
  14. donsutherland1
    An extended period of generally drier weather will commence tomorrow. Through early next week, temperatures will likely reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. There are some hints on the guidance that it could begin to turn warmer to perhaps hot after mid-month. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -26.92 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.756 today.
  15. donsutherland1
    In addition to the tornado outbreak in parts of the Delaware and Maryland areas, rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region is exceeding the guidance at some locations. Through 11:12 pm, Wilmington, DE has picked up 2.07" of rain and Philadelphia has seen 0.96". In short, while most areas will likely see 0.25"-0.75" as per the guidance, there will likely be pockets with 1"-2" amounts.
  16. donsutherland1
    Yes, the color is a function of diet. I'm not sure what it is eating up in Cape Cod.
  17. donsutherland1
    Showers, thundershowers, and periods of rain will likely arrive tonight and continue through tomorrow. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall is likely. In the wake of the system, temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s into the weekend. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -18.70 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.425 today.
  18. donsutherland1
    Showers, thundershowers, and periods of rain will likely arrive tomorrow night or Thursday. A general 0.25"-0.75" rainfall is likely. In the wake of the system, temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s into the weekend. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -2.18 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.189 today.
  19. donsutherland1
    AMOC breakdown risk: This isn't necessary the most likely scenario, but an illustration of an uncomfortably high short-term probability. The underlying paper can be found here: https://nyaspubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/nyas.14659
  20. donsutherland1
    Thank you.
  21. donsutherland1
    I now post screenshots.
  22. donsutherland1
    Speaking of flamingos, one has reached Cape Cod.
  23. donsutherland1
    Under mostly sunny skies, the temperature rose to 84° at Islip, 86° in New York City, 89° at Newark, and 87° at Philadelphia. The Islip reading missed the daily record by 2°. Tomorrow will be somewhat cooler with highs in the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s. Rain will likely arrive late Wednesday or Thursday. In the wake of the system, temperatures will reach the upper 70s into the weekend. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall. The SOI was -17.36 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.157 today.
  24. donsutherland1
    After perhaps a brief shower, tomorrow will be partly to mostly sunny with temperatures topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Warm spots could again reach the middle 80s. Rain could arrive late Wednesday or Thursday. In the wake of the system, temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s into the weekend. The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.2°C for the week centered around May 22. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.40°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.45°C. Neutral conditions are imminent. The SOI was -10.33 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.403 today.
  25. donsutherland1
    Temperatures rose into the lower 80s in Ghent, NY making for a good day for viewing some of the sculptures at Art Omi.
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