donsutherland1
-
Posts
22,870 -
Joined
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by donsutherland1
-
An extended period of cool weather is now underway. This morning, the temperature slipped to 49° in Central Park. That was New York City's coolest temperature this month. The below normal temperatures could persist into early next week. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely tomorrow into Thursday. A gusty wind will likely accompany the rainfall. Showers could persist into Friday. There is a chance that New York City could see the mercury dip below 50° Thursday or Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +0.09 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.511 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 53% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.1° (0.1° below normal).
-
Congratulations on your upcoming wedding.
-
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
The promise of fusion is real. It will supplant much of conventional power, when realized. I'm referring solely to carbon capture. The actual CO2 captured is tiny. Moving to clean energy, including nuclear fusion, will make a much larger contribution than carbon capture will. Investment should be focused on promising technologies such as nuclear fusion, not carbon capture. Climate projections should be based on realistic assumptions not fictional ones that assume carbon capture. -
Tomorrow will see temperatures top out in the upper 60s as clouds increase. It will turn noticeably cooler for the remainder of the week. The below normal temperatures could persist into early next week. A general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely Wednesday into Thursday. A gusty wind will likely accompany the rainfall. Showers could persist into Friday. There is a chance that New York City could see the mercury dip below 50° for the first time this month Thursday or Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was -0.44 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.435 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (near normal).
-
For reference, CPC's May 15th outlook is still favoring a warmer summer.
-
I was referring to the monthly and seasonal forecasts. Next two weeks is the close of spring.
-
So far, it’s looking good, especially Sunday and Monday.
-
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
donsutherland1 replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
I am not surprised. Carbon capture remains a gimmick. It offers a false promise to divert society's attention from the need to cut fossil fuel consumption. No serious analysis or agreement should incorporate carbon capture into future projections. -
Tomorrow and Tuesday will be somewhat cooler but still pleasant days. However, it will turn noticeably cooler Tuesday night. Once it turns cooler, an extended period of below normal temperatures is likely. A moderate to significant rainfall is likely Wednesday into Thursday. A gusty wind will likely accompany the rainfall. Showers could persist into Friday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +7.83 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.290 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.2° (near normal).
-
This afternoon is gorgeous with a refreshing breeze and temperatures in the low 70s. A few photos from Katonah:
-
Tomorrow and Monday will be somewhat cooler but still pleasant days. By midweek, it will turn noticeably cooler. Once it turns cooler, an extended period of below normal temperatures is possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +6.38 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.234 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.5° (0.3° above normal).
-
A more practical measure that can be taken now is to assure that NWS offices that provide critical warning are adequately staffed. The extremely short-sighted DOGE staff reductions can endanger lives. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/16/weather/nws-cuts-kentucky-tornado.html?unlocked_article_code=1.H08.v8uv.eGs_YqT7fDtY&smid=url-share
-
Thanks. AI chose the processing effect and it seemed to fit the peonies. It has “misses” as well.
-
Mid-month update on the AI idea: It's still too early to be sure about the extent of skill or lack of skill involved in the forecasting realm. In another area, AI continues to progress. It is now able to turn photos of flowers into works approaching fine art. Two examples are below from processed photos taken at the New York Botanical Garden this spring. True photo editing does not yet exist, but could be about a year away. OpenAI is working on it, at present. Other AI companies are likely pursuing similar avenues. Should AI develop true photo editing capabilities that are easy to use, that development could disrupt the market for processing software (Topaz, Photoshop, Paintshop Pro, etc.).
-
Tomorrow will be unseasonably warm. Temperatures will top out in the upper 70s to perhaps lower 80s. Showers and thundershowers are possible. The extended guidance has grown noticeably cooler for the second half of May than it had been. Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance are now in good agreement that the second half of the month will be cooler than normal overall. Consistent with the guidance, it could turn unseasonably cooler next week following the coming weekend. Once it turns cooler, an extended period of below normal temperatures is possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +7.60 yesterday. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.278 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 63.8° (0.6° above normal).
-
Showers are possible late next week, along with cool readings.
-
It will turn warmer tomorrow. The week will end with temperatures in the upper 70s to perhaps 80°. Showers and thundershowers are possible during the tomorrow and especially on Saturday. The extended guidance has grown noticeably cooler for the second half of May than it had been. Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance are now in good agreement that the second half of the month will be cooler than normal overall. Consistent with the guidance, it could turn unseasonably cooler next week following the coming weekend. Once it turns cooler, an extended period of below normal temperatures is possible. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +7.60 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.066 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 64.0° (0.8° above normal).
-
Showers will wind down later tonight. Although parts of the region picked up 1.00" or more of rain over the past two days, much higher amounts of rainfall were recorded farther south. For example, parts of western Virginia and western North Carolina saw more than 3.50" of rain. Sedalia (4 NW), VA picked up 5.36" of rain. It will turn somewhat warmer tomorrow and the week could end with temperatures in the upper 70s to perhaps 80°. Showers are possible during the weekend. Elsewhere, parts of Texas are experiencing extreme heat. Cotulla, TX reached 112°, which broke the May monthly record of 110° that was set just yesterday. Meanwhile, International Falls reached 91°, its fourth consecutive 90° day. The prior earliest four-day heatwave occurred on June 4-7, 1988 The extended guidance has grown noticeably cooler for the second half of May than it had been. Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance are now in good agreement that the second half of the month could average near or even below normal overall. Consistent with the guidance, it could turn unseasonably cool early next week following the coming weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.55°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.07°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least mid summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was -3.35 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.160 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 66% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.0° (1.8° above normal).
-
Showers and thundershowers are likely this evening into tomorrow. It will turn somewhat warmer on Thursday and the week could end with temperatures in the upper 70s to perhaps 80°. Meanwhile, parts of Texas are now experiencing extreme heat. As of 3 pm CDT, daily records were surpassed in Cotulla and Del Rio and the daily record was tied in Houston. The temperature could approach or set new May monthly high temperature records in such cities as Austin, Del Rio and San Antonio tomorrow. The extended guidance has grown cooler for the second half of May than it had been. Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance are now in good agreement that the second half of the month could average near normal overall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was +1.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.459 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.5° (2.3° above normal).
-
It will become mostly cloudy but still dry between 6 am and 8 am. With perhaps a light shower, it should be mainly or completely dry into the evening. Clouds could break for a time on Friday. More sustained clearing should commence Saturday afternoon. At least, that's where things currently stand.
-
Tomorrow will be dry and continued pleasant. Temperatures will generally top out in the lower 70s. Showers and/or thundershowers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. It will turn somewhat warmer on Thursday and the week could end with temperatures in the upper 70s to perhaps 80°. Meanwhile, parts of Texas will see extreme heat. The temperature could approach or set new May monthly high temperature records in such cities as Austin, Del Rio and San Antonio on Wednesday. The extended guidance has grown cooler for the second half of May than it had been. Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance are now in good agreement that the second half of the month could average near normal overall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was -0.82 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.718 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.6° (2.4° above normal).
-
Under bright sunshine, the mercury rose into the middle and upper 70s across the New York City area. Newark topped out at 81°. Tomorrow through much of Tuesday will be dry and pleasant days. Temperatures will generally top out in the lower 70s. Showers and/or thundershowers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. It will turn somewhat warmer on Thursday and the week could end with temperatures in the upper 70s to perhaps 80°. Meanwhile, parts of Texas will see extreme heat. The temperature could approach or set new May monthly high temperature records in such cities as Austin, Del Rio and San Antonio. The extended guidance has grown cooler for the second half of May than it had been. Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance are now in good agreement that the second half of the month could average near normal overall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was -11.85 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.173 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 76% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.7° (2.5° above normal).
-
Tomorrow through much of Tuesday will be dry and pleasant days. Tempertures will generally top out in the lower 70s. Some showers are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. The extended guidance has grown cooler for the second half of May than it had been. Both the CFSv2 and ECMWF weekly guidance are now in good agreement that the second half of the month could average near normal overall. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was -16.68 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.220 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 65.8° (2.6° above normal). That would tie 2025 with 1975 as the 10th warmest May on record.
-
After a morning low of 50°, NYC topped out at a sunny 71°. Even as the rain washed down a lot of the blossoms at the New York Botanical Garden, there were still some picturesque scenes.
-
Showers and periods of rain are likely through at least the first half of tonight. A general storm total 0.50"-1.50" rainfall is likely with some locally higher amounts by the time all of the rain winds down. Following the weekend, it will turn warmer and possibly drier. Some showers will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around April 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.68°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through at least early summer. Early indications are that summer 2025 will be warmer than normal in the New York City and Philadelphia areas. The potential exists for a much warmer than normal summer (more than 1° above normal). The SOI was -13.16 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.412 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 78% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal May (1991-2020 normal). May will likely finish with a mean temperature near 66.0° (2.8° above normal). That would tie 2025 with 1986 as the 9th warmest May on record.
